Current Weather Conditions on 3rd July 2016
The Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of Saurashtra & Gujarat, most parts of
East Rajasthan, remaining parts of Punjab & Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and some more parts of
West Rajasthan.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 22.0°N/ Long. 60.0°E, Lat. 22.0°N/
Long.65.0°E, Dwarka, Surendernagar, Ajmer and Anupgarh.
Conditions are favorable for further advance of Southwest monsoon into remaining parts of north
Arabian Sea, Gujarat State and Rajasthan during next 48 hours.
The Low Pressure area from Bay of Bengal has tracked inland over Odisha and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal and now lies
over Jharkhand and adjoining Odisha & Gangetic West Bengal. The associated Upper Air Cyclonic
Circulation extends up to Midtropospheric levels.
The trough at mean sea level now runs from Northwest Rajasthan to Northeast Bay of Bengal
across Haryana, South Uttar Pradesh, Center of Low Pressure area and extends up to 1.5 km above mean
sea level.
The off-shore trough at mean sea level from South Gujarat coast to North Kerala coast persists.
The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Kutch & neighbourhood now seen between 2.1 & 4.5 km
above mean sea level.
There has been scattered showers, light rain and medium rain from 28th June till date on most days of the forecast period over many parts of Saurashtra & South Gujarat with few places receiving heavy rainfall especially the South & East coastal areas of Saurashtra.
IMD Advance Of Southwest Monsoon Till 3rd July 2016
લીલી લીટી ના છેડે જે તારીખ હોઈ તે તારીખે લીટી ની નીચે ના ભાગ માં બધે ચોમાસું પોંચી ગયું છે તેમ સમજવું.
લાલ ત્રુટક લીટી જે તે વિસ્તાર માં નોર્મલ ચોમાસું બેસવાની તારીખ દર્શાવે છે
The date shown at the end of green line shows that the Southwest Monsoon has set in over areas below the green line on that date.
The red dashed line shows the normal date of onset of Southwest Monsoon over various regions.
Forecast: Dated 4th July to 7th July 2016
Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch:
Weather conditions that prevailed between 28th June to 3rd July will continue for 4th & 5th July ( Conditions similar to forecast for 28th June till 3rd July). Rain expected to be lighter on 6th/7th July in Saurashtra. Due to Off-shore trough South Gujarat will get higher quantum of rain. High speed winds from Arabian Sea will blow over Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch during the forecast period.
Advance Indications (60% possibility): Various Forecast Models indicate a possibility of the Low pressure System over Jharkhand and adjoining areas to track Westwards to over Madhya Pradesh and latter track further West Northwest. System track should be closely monitored for chances of it coming near Gujarat State around 8th July 2016.
Wunderground ECMWF 925 hPA Forecast Dated 3rd July 2016 Valid for 8th July 2016 @ 1200 UTC
Wunderground GFS 925 hPA Forecast Dated 3rd July 2016 Valid for 8th July 2016 @ 1200 UTC
ટૂંકુ ને ટચ : તારીખ 4 જૂલાઇ થી 7 જૂલાઇ 2016
તારીખ 28 થી 3 જૂલાઇ ની આગાહી પ્રમાણે નું વાતાવરણ હજુ તારીખ 4 અને 5 જૂલાઇ ના ચાલુ રહેશે. તારીખ 6 અને 7 ના સૌરાષ્ટ્ર માં ઝાપટા હળવો વરસાદ રહેશે।. ઓફ શોર ટ્રફ ને હિસાબે દક્ષિણ ગુજરાત માં વરસાદ ની માત્રા વધુ રહેશે. અરબી સમુદ્ર ના ભારે પવનો સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ ઉપર થી ફૂંકાશે.
આગોતરું એંધાણ (હાલ શક્યતા 60% સમજવી ) : બંગાળ ની ખાડી નું લો પ્રેસર હાલ ઝારખંડ ઉપર છે. વિવિધ ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ મુજબ તે સિસ્ટમ મધ્ય પ્રદેશ બાજુ આવી અને પછી પશ્ચિમ ઉત્તર પશ્ચિમ તરફ આગળ ચાલશે. આ સિસ્ટમ 8 તારીખ આસપાસ ગુજરાત રાજ્ય બાજુ આવે છે કે કેમ તેનું મોનીટરીંગ કરવું જોઈ.
Guideline for Comments:
1. Please post comment if you have a valid email address.
2. Read earlier comments and their reply before posting any comment.
3. Do not ask question about when the update will take place. Usually as and when deemed fit update will be given.
4. I do not forecast for long term, so do not ask for any forecast beyond 7 days.
5. Do not ask when it will rain in any city, town or village or city. Normally the forecast is given for broad areas of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat.
કમેન્ટ માટે માર્ગદર્શન:
1. ખરું ઈ મેઈલ એડ્રેસ હોઈ તો કમેન્ટ કરો.
2. આગળ સવાલો અને તેના જવાબ વાંચી ને તમારી કમેન્ટ કરો.
3. “અપડેટ ક્યારે થશે ?” તેવા સવાલ કરવા નહિ. સામાન્ય રીતે યોગ્ય લાગશે ત્યારે અપડેટ થશે.
4. હું લાંબા ગાળા ની આગાહી નથી કરતો માટે 7 દિવસ થી આગળ માટે આગાહી બાબત કમેન્ટ ના કરવી.
5. “મારા શહેર, કે ગામ માં વરસાદ ક્યારે થશે ?” તેવા સવાલ પૂછવા નહિ. સામાન્ય રીતે સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ ના બહોળા વિસ્તારો ની આગાહી આપેલ હોઈ છે.
Sir
mari factory nu email aapel se hale ne. ?
Yes
Sir wankaner morbi chomasu rekhama aveche
Wankaner ma avey chhe ane Morbi baaki chhe.
Pan varsad padey toe kam nu
Sir.final trek bani gayo chhe 60%
100% nahi thay .purva Madhya daxin guj no vaaro aave tevu chhe..chhata haju 24kalak monitoring karva jevu chhe
Sir utter Gujarat ma chomasu Bethu nathi season no pahelo varsad ni rah jovai rahi se..
Tamare vatavaran sudharo chhe.
Sir…
Bodar (tharad) baju varsad nathi thayo
To varsad ke Zapata padse
And vatavaran saru kayre thase
Sauthi chhelle Kutch & lagu oottar Gujarat ma chomasu bese dar varshe.
Havey tamaro area ane Kutch baaki chhe.
Is monsoon declared in Ahmedabad?
Yes
I was checking fore casting of cnn bbc aauweather skymate daily…none of them predicted heavy rains. Y so ?
Which period are you referring to ?
Hi sir
Good mrng,sir jamnagar ma jodiya taluka ma chomasu besi gayu 6?
CHomasu rekha Dwarka, Jamnagar ane Surendranagar thi paas thaay chhe.
Arabian Sea na Dakshin Pashchim pavano havey tamara vistar oopar thi pass thaay chhe ane Kutch ma pan chalu thaya chhe.
Sir happy to inform you very heavy rains in panchmahal dist ovetnoght…
Sir Gujarati ma kyare mukso
aagahi Gujarati ma aapel chhe.
નરો વા કુંજરો વા… ચોમાસુ તો હજી બાકી છે પણ સપ્ટેમ્બર માં ધોધમાર વર્ષે તો પણ શું કામનું!
Paheli vaat: Hu lamba gadaa ni aagahi nathi karto.
Jyare havaman khata ye kahi didhu ke 5 divas varsad nathi tyare varsad ni aagahi karel chhe.
Darek vistar ma ek sarkho varsad na avey.
Baaki kora ma vavani karel hoi te vedana hu samji shaku chhu !
u are so perfect in your predictions. maro anubhav chhella 2 – 3 varsh no. may almighty bless u.
Sir maru place Bhayavadar 6 upleta ma Ave 6 tya badhe aju baju ma saro varsad 6 bas Amara area ma nathi enu su reason hoy sake
Enu koi karan nathi.
darek vistar ma alag alag matra hoi.
I am in the impression that the low pressure may track north north westwards, bringing good rains to east / central MP, then parts of south UP and associated areas.
I understand that everything would be too early at this stage….but wish the system turn strong and approach Gujarat.
jsk. Sir. Thanks for new apadet.
sir Dt. 29 ni apadet ma dt. 3 julai na mara aek prashno javab tmoae aapvano baki rakhyo hto teno javab aa new apadet thi mali gyo . Maro prashna aagotara aendhanma aave chhe ne ?? Sir. E prashna Mahesh lalkiya vada prashna ma hto . To sir maro abhyas sacho 6e ke khoto ??? Ans. Aapjo atle mne khabar pade sir.
Hello sir heavy cloud covervimd ma batadeche gun e avse aje rate varsad che khaki vadada
Lakhan samjanu nahi
sir mandvi kutch baju 4 thi 7 samayma varsad ni sakyta che.
Kutch ma chomasu thoda divas ma besi jashe.
આભાર સર ખુબ ખુબ….મિત્રો પ્રાર્થના કરો ઈશ્વર પાસે કે bob નું low ગુજરાત સુધી પહોંચે….અધીરા બનશું કંઈ નહિ વળે…સર એ આપણ ને માહિતી આપી છે કે ૬૦/૪૦છે શક્યતા તો આપણે હવે ઈશ્વર ને પ્રાર્થના કરીયે કે ૧૦૦% થઇ જાય…
Sir utter Gujarat ma chomasu Bethu nathi season no pahelo varsad ni rah jovai rahi se
Ahmedabad sudhi chomasu besi gayu chhe gai kaale.
Havey varsad thashe.
liliya taluka nu bhorignda gama aje pan 3 thi 4 inch jetlo varsad padiyo
Saheb, tamaro aadkatro iesharo evo lagi rahyo chhe k saurashtra ma lp ni asar lighter rehshe.because saurashtra vada ni comment ave to”Haju chomasu baki chhe” ne uttar guj¢ral guj ni cmnt ma “tamare avshe”.. sangh Satadhar thay ne dwarka pohche to saru..
Have varsad ni dhadabadi kyare bolse e jarak samjavjo sir a dhime dhime 1-2 inch ma nathi maja aavti 8-10 inch vado saurastra ma kyare padse sir
sir,
as you sai two different models of forecasting, one is GFS and which second model that you refer? request to share names.
regards
It is written on top of the forecast map. ECMWF. (European model)
Sir good news 4 gujrat thanks…. aje bhavnagar MA saro varsad hato .ane have agotru andhan hoi tema aucho vadhu ours gujrat MA relu thash ..mane javab MA pan agotru andhan apo
Sir botad distinct kaya aria ma ganavo so
Hu ganu evu kai na avey.
Botad Saurashtra ma chhe ane tamare chomasu besi gayu chhe.
Sar.devbhumi-dawarka ka ma varshad nvana chansh 6e.? Ply jvab aapjo
Havey pavano Dakshin pashchim na fookaay chhe tamara vistar ma ane Kutch ma etle vatavaran thashe.
sir agotaru endhan chasu pade to maja avi jay
Sir…. Haji pan Nadiad and aas paas na vistar ma Varsad nathi …. To kyar sudhi ma Varo aavse ???….
Tamare vatavaran saru chhe….. varsad avashe.
Mundra kutch ma haju sudhi ek tipu varsad nathi Padyo..sirji…havaman khatu bhale je kahetu hoy te…pan aa varas vichitra lage chhe…sir tamara par ishvar jetlo bharoso chhe….tame kaik aagotru endhan aapo…plz sir..
Varas ma kai vandho nathi.
Normal tarikh pahela chomasu besi jashe tamare.
Amdavad ma bhare varsad kyare aavse pli jawab aapo
aagahi samay pachhi.
Sir i am sory but hu koi havama tir nathi chodto pan lagbha tamam chart ane vividh forcast model no abhay karine kahu chu ke. Je ta-6 thi pavan ni jadap vadhase ane ta-7 te vadhu tivra banse ane teni disa wsw hase. Temaj mara anuman mujab pur-madhy-daksin ane sourastra ma kyak bhare to kyak atibhare varsad ni sakyata che. Ta-8.9.10 sudhima 99% . Bas have tamra anuman ni rah jov chu atle 100% final thai jay. Baki kudrat pase koi nu na chale.
Tamey tir ni topi kem paheri lidhi ?
Forecast model ma fer far avata rahe ane jyare two alag alag model sarkhu kahe tyare vishwas bese.
Sir; Amreli jilla ma hve tran divas km raheshe…
સર કાંઈક કરો હવે
dost have dhirj rakh 1 thi 2 divas ma thai jase
Namastey sir
I think je rathyatra jagannath puri thi chalu thay chhe te ma durgana darshan kari 7 thi 8 date sudhima ma ambaji ane ma kali pavagadhvali sudhi pochi jase.. Am i right????
Manavadar taluka ma varsad j nathi Ashok bhai
95 mm varsad thayo chhe.
Mahiti check karo.
Dahod maa 1 thi 2 inch jevo varsad padyo ( 9:00 thi 9:52 )
Veraval thi Porbandar ni dariy pattima avta gamda / shaher ma vavni no varsad kyare avshe?
Havey pavano Dariya na foonkaashe etle vatavaran sudharshe.
Sir,
Jamnagar na Jodiya na asapas na vistar ma 0.75inch varsad nathi. agahi na samay ma thse ke kem plz reply?
Jodiya ma 38 mm thayel chhe.
Sir; is there any chance of rain in our region(Jamnagar to jodiya costal area) during date 4 to 7
Arabian Sea winds have started blowing over you region as well as Kutch.
Gujarati ma kyare mukso proper clear nathi thatu
Gujarati ma aapel chhe…. vancho
Sir ….vadodara ma thase k nai..
Yes havey varo avshe.
dhodhmar varsad ave avi koy system the?
Sr. Mara andaj pramane da.10/7 saurashtrama bhare varshd padvojoy
Sir arvalli dist dhansura ma varsad bilkul nahivat che to kyare varsad in sakyata che pls.. Ans.
Tamare varsad thashe.
sir system vishe kaik kaho kyare avse gujrat ma
Sir uttar gujarat nu chokhavd karo
Sir
Pavani gati kyare vadhse
Varsad ni helly thase ke su?
Sir tamari aagahi mujab hal kutch ma varsad ni sakyata nathi kharu ne?
Conditions are favorable for further advance of Southwest monsoon into remaining parts of north
Arabian Sea, Gujarat State and Rajasthan during next 48 hours.
sir jamkalyanpur taluka na ghana gamma vavni bagadi che 3divash lu padvathi have chans che sir2&3divas ma to ghana bachi sake che sir sharad thakar
Dem bhare aevo varsad kedi thase