Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During 2017 – ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails With MJJ 2017 ONI Index At +0.3ºC

ENSO Status on 4th August 2017

 

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v4). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
CPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given here.

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

Short lived La Nina ended with last 3-monthly season as NDJ 2017. Subsequently, Enso neutral conditions have prevailed thereafter.

ONI Index for DJF 2017 was -0.4ºC, JFM 2017 was -0.2ºC, FMA 2017 was +0.1ºC, MAM was +0.4ºC, AMJ was +0.4ºC and now the last ONI Index MJJ is +0.3ºC, hence the Nino 3.4 Region of Pacific Ocean continues to remain in ENSO Neutral zone.

 

Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Enso Neutral Event For Last Three 3- Monthly Seasons Ending July 2017

 

 

 

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015.

Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust
YR   MON  Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC

2015   7   28.50   27.37    1.13
2015   8   28.47   27.02    1.45
2015   9   28.62   26.94    1.68
2015  10   28.86   26.91    1.95
2015  11   29.14   26.88    2.25
2015  12   29.04   26.80    2.24
2016   1   28.95   26.61    2.33
2016   2   28.89   26.80    2.09
2016   3   28.86   27.32    1.54
2016   4   28.96   27.86    1.10
2016   5   28.59   27.98    0.60
2016   6   27.81   27.76    0.05
2016   7   26.98   27.37   -0.39
2016   8   26.39   27.02   -0.63
2016   9   26.20   26.94   -0.74
2016  10   26.04   26.91   -0.87
2016  11   25.96   26.88   -0.93
2016  12   26.08   26.80   -0.72
2017   1   26.24   26.61   -0.37
2017   2   26.63   26.80   -0.17
2017   3   27.49   27.32    0.17
2017   4   28.30   27.86    0.44
2017   5   28.54   27.98    0.56
2017   6   27.97   27.76    0.21
2017   7   27.40   27.37    0.03

 

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

 

Southern Oscillation Index

 

As per BOM, Australia:

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 30 July was +8.1 (90-day value −0.4). SOI values have generally been within the neutral range since mid-October. However, recently they have shot up and flirting the positive zone.

The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 31st July 2017 is +8.7 which is flirting the positive zone.

 

 

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

 

SOI Monthly graph up to July 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

 

 

30 Days average SOI was +6.51 at the end of July 2017 and +8.01 on 2nd August 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

 

Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  Dated 31st July 2017

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

ENSO-Neutral conditions are present.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.

ENSO-Neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking  here

As per BOM -Australia 1st August 2017


ENSO neutral conditions are likely to persist – ENSO Outlook Inactive:

All earlier updates are listed below:

Click here for Update “Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”

Click here for Update “Full Fledged El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”

Click here for Update “ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of February 2017”

Click here for Update “2016/17 Qualifies As A La Nina Event”

Click here for Update “Enso Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016”

Click here for Update “Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016”

Click here for Update “Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016”

Click here for Update “Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016”

Click here for Update “Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016”

Click here for Update “NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events”

Click here for Update “Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June  2105”

Click here for Update “El Nino Update – 5th May 2015”

Click here for Update “Weak El Nino Develops March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 7th February 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th January 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status 6th November 2014”

0 0 votes
Article Rating
80 Add your comment here
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Jignesh Khant (Morbi)
Jignesh Khant (Morbi)
05/08/2017 9:28 am

Sir Ji,
Varsad mate no next round mate have
Satam-atham Na Thepla khai lai pachhi j avse ….. wait vadhare karvo padse…

njjadeja
njjadeja
05/08/2017 9:18 am

Sir saurastra na khedutone Sara vrsad na samachar kyare apo chho apna jwabni rah chhe bdha

jayesh borad
jayesh borad
05/08/2017 8:29 am

Sir have koi navi sistem ubhi Thai 6 ? hal ma

Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
05/08/2017 8:27 am

Ek-be divas ma Mandani varsad thaey evu vatavaran laage chhe.

લાલપુર(ભણગોર) કેશુભાઈ ગોજીયા
લાલપુર(ભણગોર) કેશુભાઈ ગોજીયા
05/08/2017 6:37 am

સાહેબ,
ગુજરાત વેધરમાં માહીતિ ગુજરાતીમાં વિગતે આપશો તો ખેડુતો ને સરળ રહેશે, આભાર.

Ankitkumar Patel
Ankitkumar Patel
05/08/2017 1:40 am

Hi.
Sir. Have varsad no next period Ahmedabad ma kyare avase.
Pls.sir reply.

Gambhirsinh
Gambhirsinh
04/08/2017 11:19 pm

Sir to 10 tarikh sudhi varsad ni shakyata nay ke ? Aagotaru aendhan aapo ne to khabar pade ke magafadi pa Pani pavu padse ke nay…pliz ans….gambhirsinh maliya hatina…

Bhavik
Bhavik
Reply to  Gambhirsinh
05/08/2017 9:16 am

પાણી જોઈતું હોય તો આપો હમણાં વરસાદ ની કોઈ શક્યતા નથી..

Piyush myatra
Piyush myatra
04/08/2017 11:04 pm

Sir tame Lamba gada ni aagahi nathi aapata pan Tamara 1 Anubhav ne Karane puchhu sir varsad no bijo raund andaje Kyre aave tevu tame lage.chhe. Tamara javab ni ghani badhi Aasha chhe sir pls.repy

Bhoraniya keyur v.
Bhoraniya keyur v.
04/08/2017 10:12 pm

Sir.nmste. isan ni vijdi tae tyare 5/6 kalakma varsad ave te me 2/3 var joyelu6 to te kya paribal na hisabe thatu hase

Ranjitbhai.d. rathod.gaghada
Ranjitbhai.d. rathod.gaghada
04/08/2017 10:07 pm

Sir.gujrati.athva.hindi.bhasa.ma.aave.aevi.website.monsoon.sistam.vise.ni.jankari.mate.jevu.je.lo.uca.dipresan.dipdipresan.wmlp.karnke.saurastra.ma.sistam.sivay.hava.rokva.valu.biju.kai.nathi.etle.jankari.melvva.utchuk.chhu.

Dipak parmar
Dipak parmar
04/08/2017 9:28 pm

Mitro varsad mate na pribalo hamna chhe j nahi to saheb ne khota prshno puchhva no koi matlab nahi ne saheb kahe pan chhe ke hal ma chhuta chhvaya zapta sivay kai nahi to please aava prshno na karo varsad aavva no hase to saheb tarat j apdet muki de … to shanti rakho raghvaya thvathi varsad na aave. …

Hamir ahir
Hamir ahir
04/08/2017 9:08 pm

Plese sir reply now
Mr.ashok sir

I am from dev bhumi dwarka

Sir EL neo che su

r.c.patel.(manavadar)
r.c.patel.(manavadar)
04/08/2017 8:56 pm

Sr.nmste mitro medhraja “13august thi “17august Saurastr pr besumar vrsse.Mara abhiyash mujb.

Kanbhai
Kanbhai
04/08/2017 8:50 pm

Thanks

meetrajsinh
meetrajsinh
04/08/2017 8:50 pm

sir, as per skymet Uac which is now in BOB it may be intensified in Low pressure and it will move in west direction..it’s possible track is south-East Rajsthan via CG-MP. So, Is there be any possibility of gud rains in east
Saurashtra during next monday-tuesday?? However, skymet says that it is very fast moving system and any part will not get very heavy spells by this system.

Jitu rakholiya
Jitu rakholiya
04/08/2017 8:06 pm

Good news Sir Thanks very much

Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
04/08/2017 7:18 pm

Handhay sara vana chhe,etle Saurashtra/Gujarat ma hajuye saro varsad padshe.haju toe monsoon adadhe palle pahochyu chhe.

javiya ashish
javiya ashish
04/08/2017 7:12 pm

Sir have kyare Sara varsad no round aavse te janav va vinanti

kavar kishor Nana bhela
kavar kishor Nana bhela
04/08/2017 7:06 pm

Have pasi aught ma varsad thase jara batavso

Anil odedra
Anil odedra
04/08/2017 6:59 pm

Hello there,
This is Anil Odedara from village bakharla, porbandar district.
We did have some rain back in the days but not as much, is there any chance of light or medium rain in our area? Particularly cost between Jamnagar and porbandar sir??

Thanking you for providing free timely weather updates

ગુંજન જાદવ : દાહોદ
ગુંજન જાદવ : દાહોદ
04/08/2017 6:48 pm

Sir mara abhyaash pramane August naa chhella 10 divas maa aapdo vaaro aavse aevu laage chhe .
Aa year ae Tyfoon North baaju bani rahyaa chhe jethi Aapda BoB maathi Bhej khechay rahyo chhe ane Aana lide Pavano godhvata nathi jethi north baaju and East India baju saro varsad padi rahyo chhe .
Aa Normal chhe Pan aa vakhate thodo vadhu samay laagse Normal thava maate . .

Hemani
Hemani
04/08/2017 6:17 pm

Kyare varsad no 2jo ravund salu thase

Rakesh modhavadiya
Rakesh modhavadiya
04/08/2017 5:30 pm

mitro Hamna koi moto varsad Nathi
Gujrat upar je uAc batave che tena karne sutasavaya japta Aane kyak hadvo varsad padche…..
Aavta divcho ma baki kay bhare varsad jevu nathi

ambani mehul
ambani mehul
04/08/2017 5:09 pm

Sir Varsad nu anuman su che

ambani mehul
ambani mehul
04/08/2017 5:06 pm

Sir gujrat ma have Varsad no saro round kedi ave tevu anuman che

Parmar ranvir g kodinar gir somnath
Parmar ranvir g kodinar gir somnath
04/08/2017 4:32 pm

Sir hu ek kisansu kodinar gir somnath amara vistar ma varsad saro thayo che hal vrapche aa vrap ketla divs rhevani skyatache ne aavta varsadno round kyare aavche plij sir…

sureshpatel
sureshpatel
04/08/2017 4:11 pm

Now position next week

Yogesh patel
Yogesh patel
04/08/2017 4:10 pm

Sar navo raund kyare avse

Kishan.r.jilariya
Kishan.r.jilariya
04/08/2017 4:03 pm

Varsad no bijo round kyare saruvat thase
ગામ.ટીંબડી તા.જોડીયા. જી.જામનગર

દીપકભાઇકાછડીયા
દીપકભાઇકાછડીયા
04/08/2017 3:56 pm

સરજયશ્રીકૃષણ….હાલપવનનુજોરવધુછેતોતેનુકારણસુહૉયસકે…મોટીવેરાવળ..તા..લાલપુર..જી..જીમનગર

ramesh patel
ramesh patel
04/08/2017 3:17 pm

have varsad no round avse ke nay

ahir ramesh
ahir ramesh
04/08/2017 3:05 pm

Thnx for new update

Sunny Patel
Sunny Patel
04/08/2017 2:29 pm

Hi,

There are no chances of good rain till mid month. Such long period without rain is called break monsoon phase. As you said above in post there are no chances of El-Nino, then what’s the factor which is making the break monsoon phase. The MJO is not in favorable phase, and it looks like it will come in good position after mid-month. But, really MJO could make so much effect on monsoon.??? Whats your perspective on this??.

thanks.

Sunny Patel
Sunny Patel
Reply to  Ashok Patel
05/08/2017 12:39 am

This break is not usual in early august and usually axis doesn’t stays up there in north for so long time. There are no chances of good rain till 18th.

When MJO is seen to be in 2nd stage usually it results in break phase. And last week MJO were in 2 nd stage.

Paghdar Bhavesh
Paghdar Bhavesh
04/08/2017 2:12 pm

સર ઘોરાજી આજુ બાજુ મા વરસાદ ખુબ જ આછો છે હવે નવો રાઉન્ડ ક્યારેય આવશે

કોળી ભરતભાઈ ગોહિલ
કોળી ભરતભાઈ ગોહિલ
04/08/2017 1:30 pm

સર.. છ દિવસથી અમારે વરાપ છે હાલ વરસાદની જરુરેય નથી પણ અમારી બાજુમાં સ્વામીના ગઢડા ના ગામોમાં વરસાદ ઓછો છે તો હવે આગળ નવો રાઉન્ડ કયારે શરુ થાય તેમ છે..??? ગામ.કરીયાણા તા.બાબરા જિ.અમરેલી

ramesh patel
ramesh patel
04/08/2017 1:29 pm

saheb have varsad no round avse

Dr viral R. Koradia
Dr viral R. Koradia
04/08/2017 1:20 pm

Even IOD is also neutral to positive,let’s hope for good rainfall in 2nd half of monsoon

Umesh kakadiya
Umesh kakadiya
04/08/2017 1:06 pm

Air 700 hpa ma date 8 9 10 uac batave Che pan varsad nathi batavtu?

mayur gorasiya
mayur gorasiya
04/08/2017 1:01 pm

have varsad kayare thase ashok bhai palliz batavone
હવે વરસાદ કયારેઆવસે

Ankit
Ankit
04/08/2017 12:57 pm

Sir have 7&8 Varshad nu kese to su varshad avse ke nahi ane Ave to kevo avse

Pankaj tariya(bhagedi.ta.kalavad)
Pankaj tariya(bhagedi.ta.kalavad)
04/08/2017 12:51 pm

Sir new updet kyare aapso kayk sara varsad ni rah joy chi karanke amare atyar sudhima mand 10 thi 12 inch jevoj padyo che hadvo pliz

sharad thakar
sharad thakar
04/08/2017 12:39 pm

Sir shravn mahina ma etlo pavan kem koi sistam devlop thai rahi chhe arbi ma

Piyush ahir
Piyush ahir
04/08/2017 12:32 pm

Sir kal sanj thi thanda pavan fukai chhe tenu karan su hoy sake koi moti system banvani haise

Ranjitbhai.d. rathod.gaghada
Ranjitbhai.d. rathod.gaghada
04/08/2017 12:26 pm

No.aal.nino.matlabh.baki.chomasu.pan.bhart.mate.saru.se.aevu.thayu.ne.sir

Anil patel (Amreli)
Anil patel (Amreli)
04/08/2017 12:22 pm

Atham na divse dhodhmar varshad ave to saru 😀

AjayBhalani
AjayBhalani
04/08/2017 12:17 pm

Good news sir

Khodu vank
Khodu vank
04/08/2017 12:00 pm

Sir
Good news

Paresh pambhar
Paresh pambhar
04/08/2017 11:49 am

Thanks

peri patel
peri patel
04/08/2017 11:40 am

good news ashok bhai

Anil patel (Amreli)
Anil patel (Amreli)
04/08/2017 11:11 am

Good news for this year..