Well Marked Low Pressure Now Over Vidarbha – Will Track Towards M.P. By 8th

Current Weather Conditions on 7th September 2014 @ 11.00 pm.

The rainfall activity has stopped or become minimal over Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch from 5th/6th September.

The Well Marked Low Pressure over Chhatishgarh has now crossed over to Visarbha & vicinity. Associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extends up to 7.6 Kms. above sea level tilting South Westwards with height.

The monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Phalodi, Kota, Guna, Narsinghpur, Center of Well Marked Low Pressure area over Vidarbha & vicinity, Gopalpur, thence South Eastwards to East Central Bay of Bengal. It extends up to 3.1 Kms. above mean sea level.

A weak Off-shore trough at mean sea level runs from Gujarat coast to Lakshawdeep area.

Last Western Disturbance has moved away from Jammu & Kashmir. However, another Western Disturbance as an Upper Air Trough in Mid level Westerlies along longitude 65.0°E and latitude north of 25.0°N has come up.


 COLA/IGES GFS Precipitation Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 9th September 2014

 

india3.48hr_070914

 

 COLA/IGES GFS Precipitation Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 10th September 2014

india3.72hr_070914

 COLA/IGES GFS Precipitation Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 11th September 2014

india3.96hr_070914

 COLA/IGES GFS Precipitation Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 12th September 2014

 

india3.120hr_070914

 

COLA/IGES GFS Precipitation Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 8th September 2014

 

india2.24hr_070914

 

IMD MSL Pressure Forecast Map Valid for 0000 UTC 9th September 2014

48hgfs_mslp_080914

 

 

IMD All India Rainfall from 1st June to 7th September 2014

daily_070914

 

 

The above map shows that rainfall till 7th September is 11 % less than normal for the season till date. A very good recovery has taken place during the month of September.

 

Forecast: 8th September to 12th September 2014

Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch :

 

The Well Marked Low Pressure System will track West Northwestwards and will cross over to Madhya pradesh & vicinity.  This System is not expected to come over Saurashtra or Gujarat. However, the associated UAC at 700 hPa is strong and would cover areas of Madhya Pradesh & Gujarat & Suarashtra. Also the clouding associated with this System is expected to be spread mainly on the West & Southwest of  the System and would benefit both Gujarat & Saurashtra.

 

Major portions of South Gujarat, Central Gujarat & Coastal Saurashtra expected to get medium to very heavy rainfall during the forecast period.

50% of Interior Saurashtra is expected to get medium to heavy rainfall while other 50% of Interior Saurashtra is expected get light to medium rainfall during the forecast period.

North Gujarat is expected to get light to heavy rainfall during the forecast period.

Kutch could get light rain in the latter part of forecast period.

NOTE: On Vacation so post will be put if time permits !

 

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ :

તારીખ ૮ સપ્ટેમ્બર થી ૧૨ સપ્ટેમ્બર ૨૦૧૪:

બંગાળની ખાડી નું વેલ માર્કડ લો પ્રેસર મુખ્યતે પશ્ચિમ તરફ ગતિ કરી છાતીશ્ગઢ ઉપર થી હાલ વિદર્ભ ઉપર આવેલ છે. આ સીસ્ટમ હવે એમ. પી. બાજુ ૨૪ કલાક માં પોન્ચશે. ત્યાં થી ગુજરાત અને સૌરાષ્ટ્ર બાજુ આવવાની શક્યતા નથી પરંતુ તેને અનૂસંગિક એક ૭૦૦ hPa ઉપર UAC છે તે એમ. પી. ગુજરાત અને સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ઉપર ફેલાશે. તેવીજ રીતે આ સીસ્ટમ ના અનૂસંગિક વાદળ સમૂહો સીસ્ટમ થી પશ્ચિમે તેમજ દક્ષીણ પશ્ચિમે રહેશે. જેથી સૌરાષ્ટ્ર અને ગુજરાત ને ફાયદો થશે.

દક્ષીણ ગુજરાત તેમજ મધ્ય ગુજરાત ના મોટા ભાગ માં મધ્યમ થી અતિ ભારે વરસાદ ની શક્યતા છે. તેવીજ રીતે સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ના કાંઠા ના વિસ્તાર માં પણ મધ્યમ થી અતિ ભારે વરસાદ ની શક્યતા છે.
બાકી ના સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ના ૫૦%  વિસ્તાર માં માધ્યમ ભારે વરસાદ ની શક્યતા અને બીજા ૫૦% વિસ્તાર માં હળવા થી મધ્યમ વરસાદ ની શક્યતા.

ઊતર ગુજરાત માં મધ્યમ વરસાદ ની શક્યતા છે.

કચ્છ માં હળવો વરસાદ આગાહી ના પાછલા દિવસો માં શક્યતા છે.

નોંધ: રજા માં બહાર ગામ હોવા થી નવી અપડેટ માટે વેલા મોડું ગણવું તેમજ પોસ્ટ ના જવાબ પણ વેલા મોડા મળશે.

ઉપર વરસાદ માટે નકશા આપેલ છે તેમાં ૪ દિવસ માં ક્યાં ક્યાં વરસાદ ની શક્યતા છે તે જોવું. થોડી મેનત કરી ને શીખો.

 

forecast_070914

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hemendra.r.solanki
hemendra.r.solanki
08/09/2014 3:13 pm

sir s.nagar d.s. ma thimi thare varsad savar thi chalu che. bhare varsad aavse.plese replay sir.

Hitesh patel
Hitesh patel
08/09/2014 2:06 pm

Sir lo praser guj baju fantai gayu k su .guj upar j ekala jordar vadlo dekhay 6

Suman daas
Suman daas
08/09/2014 2:01 pm

sir is it TRUE that the system has change its course & now the associate clouds will bring heavy rain in saurashtra in Jamnagar?

rameshsavseta
rameshsavseta
08/09/2014 1:13 pm

Paddhari taluka ma kevo avse

અમિત ઠક્કર
અમિત ઠક્કર
08/09/2014 1:11 pm

સર વડોદરા મા ભારે વરસાદ ચાલુ જે એવા ખબર મળ્યા છે.

ashok
ashok
08/09/2014 12:19 pm

khyal ..(khyaj my speling mistek)

ashok
ashok
08/09/2014 12:17 pm

sir. ap kaho tem ame naksha ma joiye ane thodo khyaj pan ave 6 parantu amaru manobal dradh hotu nathi. tethi apne sawal puchhi ne paku kari laiye chhiye. ane apno jawab male pachhij tadhak thai chhe. ante to khedu no jiv ryo ne sir.

manoj patel
manoj patel
08/09/2014 12:09 pm

sir as per weather inferance wellmark low is on sw mp and nm maharstra anychange in forcast

Yashpalsinh
Yashpalsinh
08/09/2014 10:46 am

Sir Rajkot ma ketli sambhavna 6 varshad ni?

ALPESH DHANANI
ALPESH DHANANI
08/09/2014 10:16 am

SIR. JASDAN DISTIK MAA AA RAUONDMAA VARSAD KEVOK PADSEA

anil gami
anil gami
08/09/2014 10:03 am

sir map ma red green colour su darshave se?

mitesh kothiya
08/09/2014 9:49 am

Sar amareli vistar ma kevo varsad thase

yogesh patel
yogesh patel
08/09/2014 9:31 am

Sirji morbi dist surendranagar ni bajuma aave 6e to morbi ma sara varsad na chance 6e?

Hiren Sarodiya
Hiren Sarodiya
08/09/2014 9:23 am

Sir botad jilla ma kevo varsad these?

pradip
pradip
08/09/2014 9:08 am

Sir normal atle 2 to 3 inch?

N.S.Makhela
N.S.Makhela
08/09/2014 8:42 am

Sir
Normal. Aetale. Andaje. Ketla,each Pls

N.S.Makhela
N.S.Makhela
08/09/2014 8:37 am

Sir
Normal. Aetale. Andaje . Ketla each Pls

navin kotadia
navin kotadia
08/09/2014 8:31 am

levu devu kudrat na hathma apni saurashtra ane kheduto prteyena lagni badal abhar ane sir jam kandorna taluka ma kevo varsad rahese ape normal kidho che to matra janavasho

Suman daas
Suman daas
08/09/2014 7:33 am

sir what about Jamnagar is it will get heavy rain or just light this time

virani chandresh
virani chandresh
08/09/2014 7:07 am

Bhavnagar ma kevo varsad padse

Patel Sarju
Patel Sarju
08/09/2014 6:51 am

Sir aa round ma surat ma kevo varsad thse ?

rakesh
rakesh
08/09/2014 6:02 am

Good morning sir khambhadiya taluka ka ma kevo varsad thase??

Hitesh patel
Hitesh patel
08/09/2014 5:42 am

Sir arrvali ma jordar varsad chalu thai gayo

tushar shah
tushar shah
08/09/2014 5:25 am

Now Wot about panchmahals rainfalls

karahan
karahan
08/09/2014 2:35 am

Sir COLA/IGES image ma aapela colors su suchve chhe ? I mean kya colore ni niche ma aavta vistar ma sau thi vadhu varsad ni sakyata hoy ? Thanks

chintan shah
chintan shah
08/09/2014 2:01 am

sir i salute your analysis
sir Junagadh ma kai date heavy rain ni sakyta che ?

ankit
ankit
08/09/2014 1:12 am

sir aa round ma rajkot & jetpur mate sara samachar che? kevo varsad thase banne area ma?

ashok
ashok
08/09/2014 12:06 am

sir keshod taluka ma kevo?

hemendra.r.solanki
hemendra.r.solanki
07/09/2014 11:59 pm

sir s.nagar ma kevo varsad thase.plese replay sir.

Rajan Mehta
Rajan Mehta
07/09/2014 11:57 pm

sir last hope for jamnagar. Will we get any rain? So far no any system benefitted to jamnagar.what amount of rain will fall in jamnagar.

lalit baldha
lalit baldha
07/09/2014 11:53 pm

sir gondal ma aani pela na round ma japta j hata to aa round ma sara varshad ni shakyata khari?

divyarajsinh
divyarajsinh
07/09/2014 11:53 pm

surendranagar ma varsad kevo padse sir

anand vadodariya
anand vadodariya
07/09/2014 11:50 pm

Saheb amaraga gamna ek bhai navu lo presarthay chhe tem kahe chhe tp su evi salyata chhe khari

nitin vadaviya
nitin vadaviya
07/09/2014 11:43 pm

Sir….morbi maliya taluka ma kevo varsad thase.pls ans.

Nirmal Bhojani
Nirmal Bhojani
07/09/2014 11:42 pm

Ok…Thanks….watch forecast maps…..

dharmendra thumar
dharmendra thumar
07/09/2014 11:41 pm

Sir India kyare Ava Ana chho ?

Nirmal Bhojani
Nirmal Bhojani
07/09/2014 11:40 pm

Himatnagar vistar ma a round ma kevo varsad thase?

vivek patel
vivek patel
07/09/2014 11:37 pm

Latipur ma kevo rahse

niks
niks
07/09/2014 11:36 pm

Amreli dist. ma kevo varsad thase???

gajendrasinh
07/09/2014 11:34 pm

Sir junagadh ma varsad kevo padse?

vishal patel
vishal patel
07/09/2014 11:33 pm

Sir, what is the forecast for jamkandorana and surrounding area.

jakhaniya ashwin
jakhaniya ashwin
07/09/2014 11:31 pm

botad ni aaspas kevo varsad thase?

Gaurav
Gaurav
07/09/2014 11:27 pm

Sir

How would the rains for Ahmedabad and surrounding areas be? Medium or heavy?

pratik patel
07/09/2014 11:23 pm

sir, kheda and Anand baju kevo varsad thavani sakyata 6e . kem ke kheda ane Anand ma varsad khub ocho thayo 6e . bhal panthak ma varsad ni khub jarur 6e . please answer.

ચંદુલાલ નસીત
ચંદુલાલ નસીત
07/09/2014 11:21 pm

સાહેબ ૧૩ તારીખ આસપાસ બંગાળ ની ખાડી માં લો પ્રેસર થવાની શક્યતા છે ?

yogesh patel
yogesh patel
07/09/2014 11:21 pm

Thnx for information
Jay umiyaji

rakesh patel
rakesh patel
07/09/2014 11:20 pm

sri Kalavad gramey vistarma varsad kevo rese

pradip
pradip
07/09/2014 11:20 pm

Sir tankara vistar ma kevo faydo thase?

Raj
Raj
07/09/2014 11:15 pm

Sir, what is the forecast for Ahmedabad and surrounding. Please reply.

Raj
Raj
Reply to  Raj
07/09/2014 11:32 pm

Which part covers central Gujarat. I think Ahmedabad is border of North and Central Gujarat? Please reply.

jimit
jimit
07/09/2014 11:15 pm

Thanks sir

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