22nd June morning.
Update will be done in Evening.
All comments will be answered in the Evening just for today.
આજે અપડેટ સાંજે થશે
આજે કમેન્ટ ના જવાબ સાંજે મળશે
Current Weather Conditions on 21st June 2015
A Low Pressure has developed over the North East Arabian & Adjoining East Central Arabian Sea early this morning. It is now a Well Marked Low Pressure.
સુચના: હાલ સિસ્ટમ કઈ બાજુ જશે ? મારા ગામ માં વરસાદ આવશે ? તેવા સવાલો કરવા નહિ. જેટલો વધુ સમય તમારા સવાલો નો જવાબ આપવામાં વાપરીશ એટલો ઓછો સમય અપડેટ માં આપી શકીશ. માટે સહકાર આપો.
ઊત્તર પૂર્વ અને લાગુ મધ્ય પૂર્વ અરબી સમુદ્ર માં લો પ્રેસર થયું છે. આગળ જતા શું થવું છે. કઈ બાજુ જશે તે બધું હજુ ચોક્કસ નથી. 24 કલાક માં ખ્યાલ આવશે. સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ના પશ્ચિમ કિનારા થીસીસ્ટમ નું સેન્ટર હાલ્ 300 Km. દક્ષીણ પશ્ચિમે છે. ઘટ વાદળા 500 Km. માં ફેલાયેલા છે જે આ સીસ્ટમ ના સેન્ટર થી મુખ્યત્વે પશ્ચિમે છે.
ટૂકું તને ટચ : બે ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ માં મત મત્તાંતર છે.
પણ હાલ નું નિદાન: આ સીસ્ટમ પહેલા થોડી સૌરાષ્ટ્ર થી દૂર જશે અને પછી પાછી સૌરાષ્ટ્ર કચ્છ તરફ પરત ફરશે તેવું અનુમાન છે. 24 કલાક માં ફેર ફર હશે અપડેટ થશે.
નીચે જે લખાણ તેમજ ચાર્ટ છે તે અનુભવી લોકો માટે આપેલ છે. હવામાન ની એ બી સી શીખતા હોઈ તેના માટે નથી, માટે ઉપર ટુકું ને ટચ આપેલ છે.
There is a differing outcome to the track of this Low Pressure by the two Forecast Models GFS & ECMWF. There will be more clarity by comparing the current position of the Low Pressure center with that of the initial center of both the Forecast Models.
The core of dense clouding associated with this Low Pressure is spread over a diameter of 500 Kms. The Center of the Low Pressure is located about 300 Km. Southwest from Western Saurashtra Coast. This means that the clouding is mainly to the West of the System Center.
Here is a comparison of the two Forecast Modes viz. GFS & ECMWF. The maps below are superimposed with Clouding and the initial conditions of 925 hPa chart for both the GFS & ECMWF models. It is very clear that the System center estimate of ECMWF 925 hPa chart seems to be off the reality with clouding. The GFS Model has the initial System Center close to the actual System Center and the vicinity of the dense core of clouding that can be seen to the right of the System Center in 925 hPa chart.
Conclusion: There is high probability that GFS model outcome would prevail. However, further monitoring a few forecast runs will make things more clear.
Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Chart Valid 21st June 2015 @ 1200 UTC
Wunderground ECMWF 925 hPa Chart Valid 21st June 2015 @ 1200 UTC
Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Chart Valid 23rd June 2015 @ 0000 UTC
Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Chart Valid 24th June 2015 @ 1200 UTC
From IMD Inference on 21st June issued at 2030 IST based on observations of 1730 IST:
The low pressure area over northeast Arabian sea off Gujarat now lies as a well marked low pressure area over Northeast and adjoining East Central Arabian Sea. The system is likely to concentrated into a depression during next 24 hour.
As per NRL: 97A.INVEST first appeared over the North East & adjoining East Central Arabian Sea on 20-06-2015 @ 2130 UTC.
NRL IR Satellite Image on 21st June 2015 @ 1300 UTC ( 6.30 pm. IST)
NRL Visible Satellite Image on 21st June 2015 @ 1230 UTC ( 06.00 pm. IST)
Sar,
Bhatiya bankodi vistarma haju vavni nathi.kyare thase .
Sir jo a bane sistam ave to varsad ni matra ke tali hase.
Bay of Bengal ni System Odisha thi Jharkhand ane Chhatisgarh baju chhe.
sanje ketla vage update karsho sir.
Whole bhavnagar,amreli and somnath,surat,dang,patan,godhra,bharuch ma district ma dhimi dhare varsad chalu
Sir.. Jai Shree Krishna tamo je havaman vishe mahitee aposho te mahitee thee amo kheduto ne khubaj faydakarak sabit thai rahel hoi aap saheb ne dil thi pranam
sir jasdan maa dhimi dhare varsad salu sea savarthi
Sir,
Varsadi vatavaran Bantu jay evu lage che rajkot ma
Sir final track ro kyo hve arabian na low pressure no??
Sir DAKSHIN NA PAVANO FUKAY SE TE VARSHAD MATE SARu kevay
Yes.
sir kodinar veraval una Diu vistar ma aaj savarna 6:00 thi sarvtrik varsad salu .
Saru.
Low na trec ma aje far far chhe
Thoda fer far chalu chhe.
Sir news by ETV khedbrahma gets 168 mm rain
Good news… thanks.
Sar jamnagar na Jodiya talukama man vavni tha6 50% vistarma. Jodiya to arabi samundhr pase6 .varsad na sanjogo kiyare thase .raund ma varo avijase
Vatavaran saru thaay chhe…. dhiraj rakho
atyare mendrda na amuk vistar ma vavni. mara mitraye korama vayu hatu te bilan pakigyu
Chorwad ma svar na 5 vaga thi saro varsad chalu.
Sir
Rajkot gujarat ma chomachu aaj thi bheti gyu che
Chomasu havaman khatu declare kare
Depression 97A is expected to ….(truncket by Moderator)
Sir hal thoda divso thi monsoon aagal nathi vadhi rahyu ane ek j jagya par sthir 6 te pa6ad nu specific reason su 6?
Pavano chomasu na hata.
Jasdan ma 9,45am thi dhimi dhare varsad chlu…
Sir surat 5am thi atyar lagi dhimi dhare varsad hato
Sir aaje savar thi vadaro vadhi gaya 6e
Ane low pressre vise thodu jaravo??
Low Pressure Arbian Sea ma chhe… gai kale hatu tyan aashare
Bhanvad baju mangadvare rate jordar varsad thase evu b b c ma batave se to te chasu ? Please javab apjo
Te nu BBC ne khyaal hoi.
Sir gadhada swamina taluka mate keva sanjog chhe?
Bhavnagar jila ma sarvatik vrshad aaje chalu cheche sr..
Aabhar varsad update maate.
સર બોટાદમાં અડધી કલાક થી સારો એવો વાવણી લાયક વરસાદ
Aabhar varsad update maate.
sabarkatha ma akhi rat vijli kadaka sathe varsad…
Surat ma jamjamati wah sir.
sir. imd gfs t574 vara fari gya lage. kale juduj avtu tu ane ajey judu batave che
Badha fer far chalu hoi…… havey khabar padi ne ke 12 kalake fer far thaay chhe !
Very good ashok patel
Sir arvali modasa ma 21 jun akhi rat thi jordar varsad chalu 6
Saru… good news
Sir s.k mo rate 2:30thi thime thime varsad chalu che.
Garmi mathi nirat thashe.
Dear Ashokbhai,
Wts ur forcast about monsoon in Rajkot for nxt week
You posted on Monday 22nd. so it is this week. till 26th June conditions good for rainfall.
Dear Ashokbhai,
Setelite image jota Arebian karta bangal vali system varsad lavse
sabarkatha ma any chance t gud rain in next days sir?…
Sir mane aabadhu jota aevu large she ke varshad 2 July ne divse padse.amara gamna ek baapanu kevu em she.
Bhavishya ma email address sachu hoi te lakhvu.
Ashokbhai mara mobailma Gujarati lakhelu batatu nathi to shu karavu ? Motorola nathi xolo chhe.
Eno ookel tamare jaanvo pade.
kai tarikh thi pavan ni disa badlase?
Badhe alag alag hoi. joya rakho ane divaso gano.
Namaste Ashokbhai. Patch over Arabian sea-Forecast 1, may land near Sindh/Baloch border(there were severe flood in this area few years back) or may enter in Kutchh/Lower Rajasthan boarder by taking a right hand turn in next 48 hours.I am studying weather charts since last 10 years but first time I am writing in your blog.Excellent work by you,Hats off to Ashokbhai.
I really appreciate the way you reply one by one.This require tremendous patience Ashokbhai. My warm regards to you.
I would appreciate if you use your correct email.
Hence forth it may end up auto into SPAM folder.
Ashok sir tue night varasad saro padashe saurashtr ma bbc kahe chhe
Ashok bhai Arabian Low Pressure se Bhuj Aur Pakistan k border Area kya Flood k chance he kya
Abhi SYstem organise hoti hai.
Sir.. nw sara vadal samuh mp maharastra prthi south gujrat par avela dekhai to teni south guj ma varsvani sakyata khari? Ane te saurastra gujratma avvani sakyata khari?
Vadada kyanthi varsad lave te ne badle varsad ave te jovo.
haal chhuto chhavayo varsad chhe ane 2/3 divas ma saro varsad thaay tevu anooman chhe.
Sir.gfs925hpa chart ma saurastra ane kutch vache red eye jevu kenu nissan chhe
Rajkot nu marker chhe. etle kahel ke havaman ma ABC maate nathi.
Sir bob ni system thi saurastra ne faido thase?
sir. mara mitra(mendarda) ye agahine anusadhane kora ma 30 vigha ma kale magfali vaveli. . . . .
Sir.imd new samachar mujab low mathi well marked low Thayou.24 hor bad deep deprestion thse………
Aaje imd weather chart model gsf t574 mujab Jo kale batave to aap ni update mujab paku thay.Pako track nakki thay.
Su a low pressure vavajoda ma parivit thase ane kutch baju avse?
Gujarati ma apel update vancho
Good evening sir
Aa cyclone nu name Su hase?
Cyclone na thayu hoi tyan sudhi mahiti nathi jaani.
It is surprising that international models of reputation are unable to predict about movement of the system. Gujarat state needs rains at this hour including western maharashtra. Hope this system gives abundance of it.
Sir imd na letest bulletin muj arabian low pressure well mark ma fervai gayu chhe ane te avta 24 kalak ma depresson ma fervai jase
Barobar chhe.
Dear Ashokbhai,
Setelite image jota Arebian valu low pressure Oman baju vayu giyune sachu me ashok Bhai?