Forecast Models Differ On Arabian Sea Low Pressure Track – 21st June 2015 Evening

22nd June morning.

Update will be done in Evening.

All comments will be answered in the Evening just for today.

આજે અપડેટ સાંજે થશે

આજે કમેન્ટ ના જવાબ સાંજે મળશે

Current Weather Conditions on 21st June 2015

A Low Pressure has developed over the North East Arabian & Adjoining East Central Arabian Sea early this morning. It is now a Well Marked Low Pressure.

સુચના: હાલ  સિસ્ટમ કઈ બાજુ જશે ? મારા ગામ માં વરસાદ આવશે ? તેવા સવાલો કરવા નહિ. જેટલો વધુ સમય તમારા સવાલો નો જવાબ આપવામાં વાપરીશ એટલો ઓછો સમય અપડેટ માં આપી શકીશ.  માટે સહકાર આપો.

 ઊત્તર પૂર્વ અને લાગુ મધ્ય પૂર્વ અરબી સમુદ્ર માં લો પ્રેસર થયું છે. આગળ જતા શું થવું છે. કઈ બાજુ જશે તે બધું હજુ ચોક્કસ નથી. 24 કલાક માં ખ્યાલ આવશે.  સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ના પશ્ચિમ કિનારા થીસીસ્ટમ નું સેન્ટર હાલ્ 300  Km. દક્ષીણ પશ્ચિમે છે.  ઘટ વાદળા 500 Km. માં ફેલાયેલા છે જે આ સીસ્ટમ ના સેન્ટર થી મુખ્યત્વે પશ્ચિમે છે.

ટૂકું તને ટચ : બે ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ માં મત મત્તાંતર  છે.

પણ હાલ નું નિદાન: આ સીસ્ટમ પહેલા થોડી સૌરાષ્ટ્ર થી દૂર જશે અને પછી પાછી સૌરાષ્ટ્ર કચ્છ તરફ પરત ફરશે તેવું અનુમાન છે. 24 કલાક માં ફેર ફર હશે અપડેટ થશે.

નીચે જે લખાણ તેમજ ચાર્ટ છે તે અનુભવી લોકો માટે આપેલ છે. હવામાન ની એ બી સી શીખતા હોઈ તેના માટે નથી, માટે ઉપર ટુકું ને ટચ આપેલ છે.

There is a differing outcome to the track of this Low Pressure by the two Forecast Models GFS & ECMWF. There will be more clarity by comparing the current position of the Low Pressure center with that of the initial center of both the Forecast Models.

The core of dense clouding associated with this Low Pressure is spread over a diameter of 500 Kms. The Center of the Low Pressure is located about 300 Km. Southwest from Western Saurashtra Coast. This means that the clouding is mainly to the West of the System Center.

Here is a comparison of the two Forecast Modes viz. GFS & ECMWF. The maps below are superimposed with Clouding and the initial conditions of 925 hPa chart for both the GFS & ECMWF models. It is very clear that the System center estimate of ECMWF 925 hPa chart seems to be off the reality with clouding. The GFS Model has the initial System Center close to the actual System Center and the vicinity of the dense core of clouding that can be seen to the right of the System Center in 925 hPa chart.

Conclusion: There is high probability that GFS model outcome would prevail. However, further monitoring a few forecast runs will make things more clear.

Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Chart Valid 21st June 2015 @ 1200 UTC

wunderground_GFS_21062015_1200z

 

Wunderground ECMWF 925 hPa Chart Valid 21st June 2015 @ 1200 UTC

wunderground_ECMWF_21062015_1200z

Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Chart Valid 23rd June 2015 @ 0000 UTC

wunderground_GFS_21062015_230615_0000z

Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Chart Valid 24th June 2015 @ 1200 UTC

 

wunderground_GFS_21062015_240615_1200z

From IMD Inference on 21st June issued at 2030 IST based on observations of 1730 IST:

The low pressure area over northeast Arabian sea off Gujarat now lies as a well marked low pressure area over Northeast and adjoining East Central Arabian Sea. The system is likely to concentrated into a depression during next 24 hour.

 

As per NRL: 97A.INVEST first appeared over the North East & adjoining East Central Arabian Sea on 20-06-2015 @ 2130 UTC.

 

NRL IR Satellite Image on 21st June 2015 @ 1300 UTC ( 6.30 pm. IST)

97AINVEST.20kts-1007mb-202N-682E.100pc_ir

 

 

NRL Visible Satellite Image on 21st June 2015 @ 1230 UTC ( 06.00 pm. IST)

97AINVEST.20kts-1007mb-202N-682E.100pc_vis

 

 

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u.v. pala
u.v. pala
22/06/2015 7:37 pm

low Pressure nabadu padi rahyu che k nahi?

jigar
jigar
22/06/2015 7:13 pm

sir evu lage chhe k lowpressure vikhrai gayu

bhavesh
bhavesh
22/06/2015 7:12 pm

Depression 97A to make.. (baaki nu delete karel chhe… vinanti biji website nu ahi post na karvu…Moderator)

Raj
Raj
22/06/2015 6:37 pm

અરબ સાગર પર સર્જાયું …

(Baaki nu delete karel chhe… vinanti biji website nu ahi post na karvu… Moderator)

vaibhav
vaibhav
22/06/2015 6:35 pm

charotar anand ma varasad j nathi. !

divyarajsinh jadeja
divyarajsinh jadeja
22/06/2015 6:26 pm

Hello sir
Jamjodhpur taluka ma haji sudhi varsad chuto chavyo aavel che jyare aaju baju ma ghano saro varsad che to jamjodhpur panthak ma varsad na samachar aapso

Jivabhai
Jivabhai
22/06/2015 6:21 pm

Ek weather blog mujab 24 th tarikhe low kutch border hit karse

Jivabhai
Jivabhai
22/06/2015 6:20 pm

Dakshin ane purva saurashtrama sarvtrik vavni layak varsad thayo 6e

ADAM BHUKERA
ADAM BHUKERA
22/06/2015 6:19 pm

hello sir
hu tamari roj ni monsoon ni update vanchu chhu pan sir ek sawal no jawab aapo mane sir ke ahi kutch ma hamna kem hitwave chhe ahi garmi bahuj lage chhe ane akash pan khulu chhe enu su karan chhe ane pawan pan bahuj tej chhe pan e pavano garam bahuj chhe enu su karan chhe sir pls answer me

savan .s.khatrani
savan .s.khatrani
22/06/2015 6:16 pm

latipur ma kedi varshad aavse?date aapo

Jay
Jay
22/06/2015 6:12 pm

The patch(Low pressure)over Arabian sea is weakening now.Would love to hear expert comments from Ashokbhai

Jay
Jay
Reply to  Jay
22/06/2015 9:55 pm

Thank you very much for your expert comment Ashokbhai,much obliged.

kiritbha
kiritbha
22/06/2015 6:10 pm

Sir rajkot ma saro varsad kyare aavse

alpesh faldu
alpesh faldu
22/06/2015 6:00 pm

sar jamjodhapur ma khali vadal chhayu

niteshvadaviya
niteshvadaviya
22/06/2015 5:59 pm

Imd confram low pressure deep deprestion ma fervayu

Er.Shivam
22/06/2015 5:31 pm

હરો ઓમ સર
એક્સટિમ વેધર ફોરકાસ્ટ મુજબ આ વાવાઝોડું કચ્છમાં આવશે તે સાચું છે કે નહીં?

vinod patel
vinod patel
22/06/2015 5:24 pm

Sir,what happen with arebion low presser?
Please UPDATE soon.

Jagdis
Jagdis
22/06/2015 5:23 pm

Sir imd na gfs574 fircast mujab system north west side jay chhe

rekesh patel
rekesh patel
22/06/2015 5:20 pm

Sri good news update Karo pll.?

mazhar
mazhar
22/06/2015 5:19 pm

Sir divya Bhaskar.online news .ma72 kalak ma bhre varsad in aagahi aapi che.. 1 no nu signal….

dilip bhadarka
dilip bhadarka
22/06/2015 5:01 pm

Bhanvad talukana jasapar game1,5inch jetlo varsad padi gyo

Jagdis
Jagdis
22/06/2015 4:45 pm

Sir imd na letest forcast mujab system north-westward taraf gati kari ne oman ma jay chhe thats true???

sanjay parecha
sanjay parecha
22/06/2015 4:37 pm

Sir
News update batavo su kye havaman khata

Faruk masani
22/06/2015 4:31 pm

Sir tamari vat karvani chata(bhasha) Oficer jevi nahi par ramuji hasya kalakar jevi che tenu shu karan(tame amuk jawabo ma jock kari lo cho)

ashok khachar
22/06/2015 4:21 pm

sir arab sagar nu low pressure ane bangal ni seystom ek shathe avi sake?

vinodbhai dhaduk
vinodbhai dhaduk
22/06/2015 4:17 pm

Mendarda ma2 kalak Sato varshad che

Hansraj Dhoriya
22/06/2015 4:15 pm

Arabian low pressures aaj savar thi well pressure ma parivit haivy rain alert.-IMD.

jadav
jadav
22/06/2015 4:12 pm

sir a sistam ma aam ferfar thavanu karn shu

Jadeja Gauravsinh
Jadeja Gauravsinh
22/06/2015 4:11 pm

Sir ur weather station showind wind direction SSW so can we say that monsoon wind is setting up?

aaryan
22/06/2015 4:11 pm

Sir aavu varsadi vatavaran ketala divas rese???

dc jadeja
dc jadeja
22/06/2015 4:08 pm

aa system rajkot ketla samaye aavase

pala bodar
pala bodar
22/06/2015 4:06 pm

Jam khambhaliya ma 4pm saro varshad chalu thayel chhe

Bhupat Patel
Bhupat Patel
22/06/2015 3:49 pm

Sir different agencies have different prediction. Bbc , accua, freemetoe, yahooweather, as well as imd, I observed the same but this time all are confused. But they are forecasting for good rain in saurastra till 25. Sir as per your experience whats your prediction ? How much rainfall will be done upto 27. Sir if possible please reply

mustak bariwala
mustak bariwala
22/06/2015 3:46 pm

Bharuch ma 4chhata padiya 6e ane jayare jambusar ma 1par chhhatu padiyu nathi
Mitro juthi afao na felavo OK

chetansuthar
chetansuthar
22/06/2015 3:39 pm

Sir mahisagar gi ma chomasu kayre avse

bhavesh
bhavesh
22/06/2015 3:36 pm

Join Google+

(Message removed by.. Moderator)

sunil patel
sunil patel
22/06/2015 3:29 pm

sir mendarda ma dhimi dhare varsad ek kalaka thi chhalu 6

sanjay virani
sanjay virani
22/06/2015 3:29 pm

Sir aaje koi sare update made sake eam se?

vinod patel
vinod patel
22/06/2015 3:25 pm

Morbi ma varsad no khash jarur 6e

NIKUNJ BALDHA
NIKUNJ BALDHA
22/06/2015 2:55 pm

Jamkandorna ma atyare andharu thyu che,
pan varsad ni koi sakyata lagti nathi.

Ramesh Karangiya
Ramesh Karangiya
22/06/2015 2:47 pm

Sir samgra ghed vistar ma saro varasad chalu che

ashok vala
ashok vala
22/06/2015 2:44 pm

Avyo avyo SAVAJ Gandi Gir ne Dhamrodto Sorath ma avyo bapla

kavani suresh
kavani suresh
22/06/2015 2:27 pm

Aa week (22 to27/6/15) ma gujarat. Ane saurastra ma ketla inch average varsad avchhe pl reply me

Omkarsinh
Omkarsinh
22/06/2015 2:00 pm

Sir…. Arab sagar ma j… Low pressure ubu thayu …6….teni….chalva ni… Disha kai baju….6….Gujarat ma varshad apse…?

devshi ahir
devshi ahir
22/06/2015 1:49 pm

saheb aa sistamne ne kai nam aapyu che…

dinesh
dinesh
22/06/2015 1:45 pm

Sir.Lathi ma jordar varshad time .1:20 haji chalu j 6 “Good Rain”

anil patel
anil patel
22/06/2015 1:43 pm

low presar bhale gujrat par na aave pan temna pawan gujrat par thi pasar thay to saro avo varsha d padi sake sir

aaryan
22/06/2015 1:29 pm

Una ma dhodhmar varsad chalu chhe..

Hemji patel
Hemji patel
22/06/2015 1:28 pm

Sir, Banaskatha na vav-tharad mate kevu raheshe haji sudhi tipu padyu nathi.

jayendra vaghasiya
jayendra vaghasiya
22/06/2015 1:21 pm

Ratre photo kairite levay chhe

Ravi kakaniya
Ravi kakaniya
22/06/2015 12:57 pm

Sir a tikha pavano Varsad mate jokhami to nay pade ne . Je Varsad ne dur dhakeli nakhe che mara mat mujab.