Southwest Monsoon Has Withdrawn From Western Parts Of Rajasthan – Scattered Showers On Some Days For Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch – 4th to 9th September 2015

Current Weather Conditions on 4th September 2015 @ 8.00 pm. IST

Weather Conditions:

As per IMD the Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from Western parts of Rajasthan. The withdrawal line passes through Anupgarh, Nagaur, Jodhpur and Barmer. Conditions are conducive for further withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some more parts of Northwest India during next 3-4 days.

 

IMD Map of Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon

Withdrawal_040915

IMD Criteria for Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon:

a) Withdrawal from extreme north-western parts of the country is not attempted before 1st September.

b) After 1st September:

The following major synoptic features are considered for the first withdrawal from the Western parts of NW India.

i) Cessation of rainfall activity over the area for continuous 5 days.
ii) Establishment of Anticyclone in the Lower Troposphere (850 hPa and below)
iii) Considerable reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapor imageries and tephigrams.

Further Withdrawal from the Country:

i) Further withdrawal from the country is declared, keeping the spatial continuity, reduction in moisture as seen in the water vapor imageries and prevalence of dry weather for 5 days.
ii) SW monsoon is from the southern peninsula and hence from the entire country only after 1st October, when the circulation pattern indicates a change over from the Southwesterly wind regime.

There is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Comorin area & neighbourhood between 1.5 & 3.1 km above mean sea level.

There is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Saurashtra & Kutch and neighbourhood between 3.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level.

The feeble Western Disturbance as an upper air trough in the Mid Tropospheric Westerlies roughly along Longitude 60.0°E and North of Latitude 30.0°N persists.

 

Forecast: 4th to 9th September 2015

Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat

Few places got some light rain on one or two days and scattered showers over some more places of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch.  Scattered showers or light rain over parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat on few days of forecast period. IMD as well as COLA/IGES maps are given for 7th to 9th September showing possible areas of scattered showers/light rain.

Monsoon is not yet over for Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch.

 

IMD GFS (T574) 850 hPa Winds (kt) & Rainfall (mm)

valid 00 UTC 8th September 2015 (for 7th September)

 

96hGFS574w850rf_040915

IMD GFS (T574) 850 hPa Winds (kt) & Rainfall (mm)

valid 00 UTC 9th September 2015 (for 8th September)

 

120hGFS574w850rf_040915

IMD GFS (T574) 850 hPa Winds (kt) & Rainfall (mm)

valid 00 UTC 10th September 2015 (for 9th September)

 

144hGFS574w850rf_040915

COLA/IGES Forecast Precipitation Valid 00 UTC 08-09-2015 ( for 7th September)

india3.96hr_040915

 

 

COLA/IGES Forecast Precipitation Valid 00 UTC 09-09-2015 ( for 8th September )

 

india3.120hr_040915

 

COLA/IGES Forecast Precipitation Valid 00 UTC 10-09-2015 ( for 9th September)

 

india3.144hr_040915

 

 

તારીખ 4 સપ્ટેમ્બર 2015 રાત્રે 8.00 વાગ્યે

હવામાન ખાતા મૂજબ દક્ષીણ પશ્ચિમ ચોમાસું પશ્ચિમ રાજસ્થાન ના અમૂક ભાગ માંથી આજે વિદાય લીધી. હાલ ચોમાસું વિદાય રેખા અનૂપગઢ નાગોર જોધપુર અને બારમેર માંથી પાસ થાય છે.

કન્યાકુમારી થી દક્ષીણે એક UAC છે જે 1.5 કિમી થી 3.1 કિમી ના લેવલે છે.

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર અને કચ્છ અને લાગુ અરબી સમુદ્ર ઉપર એક UAC છે 3.1 કિમી ના લેવલે.

વેસ્ટર્ન ડીસ્ટર્બન્સ હાલ પશ્ચિમી પવન ના અપર એર ટ્રફ તરીખે 60 ડિગ્રી E. અને 30 ડીગ્રી N. ઉપર છે.

 

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર કચ્છ ગુજરાત:

તારીખ 4 સપટેમ્બર થી 9 સપટેમ્બર 2015

અમૂક વિસ્તાર માં હળવો માધ્યમ વરસાદ પડેલ તેમજ અનેક જગ્યાએ ઝાપટા પડેલ છે. તારીખ 4 થી 9 સપટેમ્બર સુધી અંશત વાદળ છાયું વાતાવરણ રહેશે. આગાહી સમય માં અમૂક દિવસે ઝાપટા/હળવો વરસાદ ની શક્યતા છે જેમાં આગાહી સમય ના પાછલા દિવસો માં વધુ શક્યતા. તારીખ 7 થી 9 માટે IMD તેમજ COLA/IGES ના નકશા આપેલ છે.

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ માટે ચોમાસું હજુ પૂરું નથી થયું.

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tushar shah
tushar shah
08/09/2015 7:24 am

While.v r hopeful for another round.of rainfall …the IMD is now predicting only 82% of avg rainfall …

k k bera
k k bera
08/09/2015 7:13 am

Sir new update aaje aapso?

Niraj patel
Niraj patel
08/09/2015 5:50 am

sir… bob vala UAC nu low k tema thi vadhu majboot thava na ketla chances 6…

Ankur
Ankur
07/09/2015 11:28 pm

Sir new update kale aapso

Raghu
Raghu
07/09/2015 11:07 pm

Sir.je 2 uac Che te Gujarat ne faido Thai k nahi

Lalit parecha
Lalit parecha
07/09/2015 10:58 pm

Sir…mumbai ma 19 septembar na roj bhare varsaad ni aagahi aapel che..to tena anu sandhane aapda gujarat ma varsaad thava ni sakyta rahe k nai…answer me aajawab aapni 9 tarikh pachi aapi sako che..

ragesh patel
ragesh patel
07/09/2015 10:46 pm

sir
last one month central gujarat ma varsad nathi thiyo , kyare varsad avse .Please answer.

mayur Patel mendarda
mayur Patel mendarda
07/09/2015 9:25 pm

Mendarda ma aje chhanta hata

Jinesh
Jinesh
07/09/2015 8:25 pm

Jasdan taluka ma full bafaro che atyare

haresh parvadiya
haresh parvadiya
07/09/2015 8:23 pm

sir.http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/india.850.html to aa link ma red.yello. green te line su batave

Shailesh vora
Shailesh vora
07/09/2015 7:51 pm

Bob Uac ch6 avu lageshe?

Ashok kotadiya
Ashok kotadiya
07/09/2015 7:14 pm

Sir jamkandorna na rampar gamma 6p.m. thi varsad chalu 7p.m.1 thi 1.5inch haju chalu 6e

mahesh ghoniya
mahesh ghoniya
07/09/2015 6:23 pm

keral pase ek uac & Bob ma ek uac bane evu lage chhe ?

sanjay kangad
sanjay kangad
07/09/2015 6:13 pm

Sir vanthali junagadh baju na gamdama 1.5 thi 2 inch jetlo varsad che

Jadejaviramdevsinh
Jadejaviramdevsinh
07/09/2015 6:06 pm

સર12કે13તારિખ વરસાદ સૌરાષ્ઠ મા આવિશકે

abizer kachwala
abizer kachwala
07/09/2015 5:56 pm

ashok sir, xtreme weather forecast for laymen blog indicating formation of cylcone chaupla in bay.is it true?.and secondly they are predicting heavy rains in mumbai adjoining guj.please refer to models and let me know your views as i am the resident of konkan near mumbai.

BATVA NILESH
BATVA NILESH
07/09/2015 5:40 pm

Sar junagadh talukana taliyadhar gam ane aju baju na vistar ma 3.15 pm 55thi60 mm varsad thayo se

paresh chandera
paresh chandera
07/09/2015 4:32 pm

sir bob ma low presser thavani sakyata 6(skymet) to aa vkhate saurashtra ne faydo thai tevu 6 chomasu dhari spast thai?

haresh parvadiya
haresh parvadiya
07/09/2015 4:23 pm

Sir. http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/india.850.html aa link ma uac kevi rite jovay

vijayrajsinh jadeja
vijayrajsinh jadeja
07/09/2015 2:39 pm

sir ajna sandesh ma che k 15 September thi gujrat ma chomasu viday lese to e sachu? Jo chomasu viday letu hoy to Tamara mt mujb varsad thavani koy skyara khri ?

renish manavadaria
renish manavadaria
07/09/2015 12:58 pm

Sir andhra Pradesh ma je bhare varasad pade 6 the kai sistem no chhe

Rajan Mehta
Rajan Mehta
07/09/2015 12:29 pm

Sir just read that around 13th step. Low pressure will create in Bob. By the time it reach near andhra cost it will convert into deep depression and reach Mumbai by 18th and give extream heavy rain to Mumbai and konkan. Then it can past the cost of saurashtra and move into the Arabian sea and can intensify into cyclone Chapala. Here no intention to spread panic we just need rain so badly any how whether it should cyclone or any means…

Raju jamriya
Raju jamriya
07/09/2015 11:46 am

Sri have upleta ma varshad that aevi sakytase

NAITIK JAIN
NAITIK JAIN
07/09/2015 11:39 am

sir..will cyclone hit gujarat on 20 sept as per europian forcast model????

piyush ahir
piyush ahir
07/09/2015 11:32 am

Sir aasam ne aandhra valu aaya aavse?
Tya vadhare varsad padyo tenu karan su

Nishank patel
Nishank patel
07/09/2015 11:29 am

Dear sir,

Rahevado sir chomasu gayu have. varsad ni koi sakyata nathi. kemke jhakal bhu pade che khetaro ma ne bhej hava mathi jato rahyo che. have varsad ni koi aasha nathi. thandi jevu vatavaran start thai gau che.

Raj patel
Raj patel
07/09/2015 11:21 am

Sir. 700 mha ma tarikh 12.13.14 ma gujarat ajubaju je gatividhi chhe. Te su chhe ?

Sandeep
Sandeep
07/09/2015 10:47 am

Sir amirgadh ma aaje savare saro varsad che

amit nakum
amit nakum
07/09/2015 10:37 am

Sir aje sandes samachar ma pn avyu ke chomasu 15 tarik na puru Thai che
Sir chomasu kiyare ne kay tarik na puru thase

amit nakum
amit nakum
07/09/2015 9:56 am

Sir khambhalia ma varsad ni su agad pogisan che thase ke su