Current Weather Conditions on 15th September 2015 @ 9.00 am. IST
Weather Conditions:
The Low Pressure area over Westcentral & adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal has strengthened to a Well Marked Low Pressure with mean sea level pressure of 999 mb. The Associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extending upto 7.6 km above mean sea level persists.
This System is being monitored by JTWC as 99B.INVEST from 13th September 1430 UTC.
The shear zone roughly along Latitude 16.0°N between 2.1 & 7.6 km above mean sea level persists.
NRL Satellite IR Image on 15th September 2015 @ 0230 UTC
There has been scattered showers, light/medium rainfall over many parts of Saurashtra & some parts of Gujarat and few places in Kutch. Some isolated exceptionally heavy rain has also been reported over few places in Saurashtra during three four days.
Forecast: 15th to 21st September 2015
The Well Marked Low Pressure is expected to remain close to the Andhra/Odisha coast for one more day and as per GFS subsequently expected to track inland over land West Northwest direction and reach Maharashtra on 18th September and by 19th nearby Maharashtra & Gujarat areas. The System expected to be in the vicinity of Saurashtra, Gujarat and nearby Northeast Arabian Sea on 20th September. The ECMWF Forecast model takes the System towards M.P. and Central & North Gujarat.
Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat:
Forecast 15th to 18th September:
Scattered showers or light rain over parts of Saurashtra & Gujarat with medium rain over isolated places. The quantum of rainfall will be less than last four days in Saurashtra. However, South Gujarat & Central Gujarat could get some benefit from the peripheral clouding pertaining to the Low Pressure in the Bay of Bengal.
Kutch: No or very little rain for the area.
Under the influence of the Bay of Bengal System coming near Maharashtra & then near Gujarat & Saurashtra, there will be widespread rain during 19th to 21st September over Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch. The quantum of this rain is dependent on the final track of the System from the Bay of Bengal and hence it will be updated by 17th September. Yet, IMD 850 hPa & Precipitation maps are given for 19th, 20th & 21st September as an estimate of precipitation forecast of that period.
Monsoon is not yet over for Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch.
IMD GFS (T574) 850 hPa Winds (kt) & Rainfall (mm)
valid for 12 UTC 19th September 2015
IMD GFS (T574) 850 hPa Winds (kt) & Rainfall (mm)
valid for 12 UTC 20th September 2015
IMD GFS (T574) 850 hPa Winds (kt) & Rainfall (mm)
valid for 12 UTC 21st September 2015
તારીખ 15 સપ્ટેમ્બર 2015 સવારે 9.00 વાગ્યે
મધ્ય પશ્ચિમ અને લાગુ ઊતર પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ ની ખાડી માં જે લો પ્રેસર હતું તે મજબૂત થઇ ને વેલ માર્કડ લો પ્રેસર માં પરિવર્તિત થયું છે. તેના અનૂસંગિક અપર એર સાયક્લોનિક સર્ક્યુંલેસન છે 7.6 કિમી ની ઊંચાઈ સુધી ફેલાયેલ છે.
JTWC આ સીસ્ટમ ને 99B.INVEST તરીખે મોનીટર કરે છે.
પૂર્વ પશ્ચિમ ના સામ સામા પવનો (પૂર્વ-પશ્ચિમ) Latitude 16.0°N ઉપર 2.1 કિમી થી 7.6 કિમી ની ઊંચાયે ફેલાયેલ છે.
સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, કચ્છ અને ગુજરાત :
તારીખ 15 સપટેમ્બર થી 21 સપટેમ્બર 2015
છેલા ત્રણ ચાર દિવસ માં સૌરાષ્ટ્ર અને ગુજરાત માં ઝાપટા, હળવો મધ્યમ વરસાદ પડેલ તેમજ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ના અમૂક સેન્ટરો માં ભારે વરસાદ થયેલ છે. કચ્છ ના એકલ દોકલ સેન્ટર માં વરસાદ ના રીપોર્ટ છે.
તારીખ 15 થી 18 સપટેમ્બર સુધી અંશત વાદળ છાયું વાતાવરણ રહેશે. આગાહી સમય માં અમૂક દિવસે ઝાપટા, હળવો /મધ્યમ વરસાદ ની શક્યતા છે જેની માત્ર અગલા ચાર દિવસ કરતા સૌરાષ્ટ્ર માં ઓછી રહેશે। જોકે દક્ષીણ ગુજરાત અને મધ્ય ગુજરાત માં બંગાળ ની સીસ્ટમ ના પૂછડિયા વાદળો થી અમૂક દિવસે થોડો ફાયદો રહેશે.
કચ્છ: તારીખ 15 થી 18 સપ્ટેમ્બર માં કચ્છ માં ખાસ કઈ વરસાદ ની શક્યતા નથી અથવા ઓછી.
બંગાળી ખાડી ની સીસ્ટમ એકાદ દિવસ આન્ધ્ર/ઓડીશા ના દરિયા નજીક રહેશે અને ત્યાર બાદ જમીન ઉપર આવી અને GFS મૂજબ પશ્ચિમ ઊત્તર પશ્ચિમ બાજુ ગતિ કરશે. તારીખ 18 સપ્ટેમ્બર સુધીમાં મહારાષ્ટ્ર ઉપર હશે અને તારીખ 19 સપ્ટેમ્બર ના મહારાષ્ટ્ર/ગુજરાત નજીક હશે. આ સીસ્ટમ તારીખ 20 ના ગુજરાત/સૌરાષ્ટ્ર અને લાગુ અરબી સમુદ્ર નજીક હશે તેવું અનુમાન ફોર્કાસ્ટ મોડેલો દર્શાવે છે.
ECMWF મૂજબ એમપી અને મધ્ય ગુજરાત અને ઊત્તર ગુજરાત બાજુ સીસ્ટમ જાય તેવો ફોરકાસ્ટ ટ્રેક બતાવે છે.
બંગાળ ની સીસ્ટમ મહારાષ્ટ્ર તેમજ ગુજરાત અને સૌરાષ્ટ્ર નજીક આવતી હોઈ તેની અસર થી તારીખ 19 થી 21 દરમિયાન સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ માં સાર્વત્રિક વરસાદ થાય તેવા સંજોગો થયા છે. વરસાદ ની માત્રા નું અનુમાન 17 તારીખ ના અપડેટ માં આવશે. તેમ છતાં પ્રાથમિક અંદાજ માટે IMD ના 850 hPa ના પવન અને વરસાદ ની માત્રા ના નકશા તારીખ 19 થી 21 સપ્ટેમ્બર માટે આપેલ છે.
સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ માટે ચોમાસું હજુ પૂરું નથી થયું.
Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 15th September 2015
Weather Forecast In Sanj Samachar Dated 15th September 2015
Sir
Hal MSLP joye to 20,21,22 sauth Gj, saurastra ne kutch par jase 996 mb batave chhe, varsad ni matra 150mm thi 325 mm sudhi ni chhe ? 19 SGJ thi chalu thase ane tyar baad 23 ni aspas Delhi sudhi jay tevu baatave chhe. Su maru judgement barabar chhe
International agency JTWC Duniya na darek bhag ni System babat reporting karta hoi chhe. Te ange te aa System ne 99B.INVEST kahe chhe. B etle Bangadni khadi ane 90 thi 99 serial number vapare chhe saruvat ma. aatlu kaafi chhe.
Hearty
16/09/2015 1:33 pm
in last season n in this too , i saw that before monsoon used too b very active whole season in Kerala and South region and Maharashtra side but with time now Assam and East n East north regions becoming victims. Its climate change that has done this or just an odd season ? or Monsoon Dhari is changing its location and this will be always in future ?
Natural variability and it averages out over a long period.
Hearty
16/09/2015 1:23 pm
Hellow, where can i get knowledge about connection between thunders and rain in simple language ? i mean its said in general and seen too that excessive thunders take away rain and garjya vadap varse nahi and all. does it hav actually any scientific reason? this tym also its been seen that thunders were intense and no rain even after real black dense clouds. i tried google but language was scientific and tough so couldn’t understand. i am unable to xplain exactly what i want to know in msg but i hope u ll understand. also mail me if u… Read more »
Normally for Saurashtra & Gujarat when ever there is break in monsoon rain, there is thunder when a new round comes. This is my observation.
Thunder is due to the electric charges getting short circuited in the atmosphere. They are created due to meeting of hot and cold fronts (clouds).
Narendra Baraiya
16/09/2015 1:17 pm
Sir,
Today`s COLA image is showing low pressure path to Saurastra with heavy rain fall on 20th & 21st, can we believe this chart or it can get changed in next three days time also? Request to reply it.
Forecast Model are run every 6 hours and they come with some outcomes which can be different from earlier versions. Normally if there is consistency in consecutive forecast runs then there is more confidence of outcome.
Thanks Ashokbhai. I m regularly following your update since last year. Devbhumi dwarka na Kalyanpur taluka ma magfali no pak 100% fail j che. Jo have varsad thay to ravipak ma kaik male..
saeed patel
16/09/2015 10:18 am
Sir 19 thi varsad na sanjogo thaya 6e Gujarat kaya bhag ma vadhu varsad varsi sake6e means south north saurashtra ma kya bhagha?
Bani shake. Samanya ritey chomasu chalu thay ane pooru thay tyare Arabian Sea ma System banti hoi chhe.
Dr.Upendra
16/09/2015 7:13 am
Atlast good news for farmers.Ashokbhai,i follow your updates regularly and also try to share with farmers accordingly.Thnx for the almost perfect forecsts you give.Hopefully this time also you will proove to be correct
Sir tmaro khub khub abhar bhagvan tmne 100 vras na kre ane sir tmari agahi roj vasu su ane amare tmari agahi vat jota hoy se sir tme 17tarikh ni agahi veli apo avi amari magni se sit pils sir
patel parth
15/09/2015 9:49 pm
Sir aa 20/21 tarikha ma uttar Gujarat ma varasad ni sakyata kevi che midium ke bhare
tamare email address hoi toe tamru email address lakho.
Umesh patel
15/09/2015 7:10 pm
Sir savare to 19 uac gujrat na dariya kanthe hatu ane atyare ti marashtra mathi uttar taraf jatu hoy tevu lage 6
kishor patel
15/09/2015 7:08 pm
Thanks sir.
Hiten patel
15/09/2015 6:42 pm
Sir,
GFS ane ECMWF ma je saware 18-21 na prediction chart hata yema Ferfar thay atyare varsad ni matra ghatati dekhay chhe.
Haju agahi diwso lamba gale hovathi ferfar thaya kare.
Overall result ma to varsad avse j ne ?
Saurashtra uparthi System 19-20-21 je kal batav to te aaj alag bhtave che to sytem u gujarat bhaju jati hoy tevu lage ! (Real-Time Weather Forecasts from NOAA/NCEP ane imd )
North gujrat sabarkatha ma varsad na sanjog che?
Shakyata chhe.
WML pressure even stronger next 1/2 day and convert into a depression , am I right sir ?
Yes.
Sir
Hal MSLP joye to 20,21,22 sauth Gj, saurastra ne kutch par jase 996 mb batave chhe, varsad ni matra 150mm thi 325 mm sudhi ni chhe ? 19 SGJ thi chalu thase ane tyar baad 23 ni aspas Delhi sudhi jay tevu baatave chhe. Su maru judgement barabar chhe
23 tarikh sudhi ma tamone khyaal avashe . Haal aa nirikshan diary ma nondho etle janvanu laey.
19 20 21 tarike Saurastra mate Sara samachar chai.
Welmark low pressure majbut bani depression ma fervase?
evu kai thashe toe update thashe.
Sir varsad ni sathe pavan ni zadap ketli hase
Update kaale chhe.
sir 99b no matlab su thay pease tena vise janavo
International agency JTWC Duniya na darek bhag ni System babat reporting karta hoi chhe. Te ange te aa System ne 99B.INVEST kahe chhe. B etle Bangadni khadi ane 90 thi 99 serial number vapare chhe saruvat ma. aatlu kaafi chhe.
in last season n in this too , i saw that before monsoon used too b very active whole season in Kerala and South region and Maharashtra side but with time now Assam and East n East north regions becoming victims. Its climate change that has done this or just an odd season ? or Monsoon Dhari is changing its location and this will be always in future ?
Natural variability and it averages out over a long period.
Hellow, where can i get knowledge about connection between thunders and rain in simple language ? i mean its said in general and seen too that excessive thunders take away rain and garjya vadap varse nahi and all. does it hav actually any scientific reason? this tym also its been seen that thunders were intense and no rain even after real black dense clouds. i tried google but language was scientific and tough so couldn’t understand. i am unable to xplain exactly what i want to know in msg but i hope u ll understand. also mail me if u… Read more »
Normally for Saurashtra & Gujarat when ever there is break in monsoon rain, there is thunder when a new round comes. This is my observation.
Thunder is due to the electric charges getting short circuited in the atmosphere. They are created due to meeting of hot and cold fronts (clouds).
Sir,
Today`s COLA image is showing low pressure path to Saurastra with heavy rain fall on 20th & 21st, can we believe this chart or it can get changed in next three days time also? Request to reply it.
Forecast Model are run every 6 hours and they come with some outcomes which can be different from earlier versions. Normally if there is consistency in consecutive forecast runs then there is more confidence of outcome.
Thanks sir.
Sir nvi update kale apso
Am are 45divas this varsad nathi aa low presar aveto saru
Sir thanks ne have amara bhagay joye laye su thay Porbandar nu ketlo varsad pale thanks
Well marked low pressure su dipration ma parivartit thase ?
Yes
Thanks Ashokbhai. I m regularly following your update since last year. Devbhumi dwarka na Kalyanpur taluka ma magfali no pak 100% fail j che. Jo have varsad thay to ravipak ma kaik male..
Sir 19 thi varsad na sanjogo thaya 6e Gujarat kaya bhag ma vadhu varsad varsi sake6e means south north saurashtra ma kya bhagha?
update 17 tarikhe
Sir a system no Varsad bapor pasi ave k akho divas chalu rahi sake
System adhaarit varsad gamey tyare ave.
Sestaym jamngar taraf aavi sake ?
System jyan hoi tena thi dakshi ane dakshin pashchime varsad thaay. Tamare jo System Kutch ma ponche etle varsad ni vadhu shakyata thaay.
Good news
Sir.50%well marked low bob ma &50% zameen upper hoy tevu lage chhe haal
Low Pressure Jamin oopar chhe. Location 20.1N & 84.8 E
700 hpa ma je low nu chakkar 6e teni aaju baju pavan batave 6 to te su vava jodu hoy sake
700 hPa ma Low Pressure na batave.
700 hPa etle 3.1 km oonchaye. Etle techakkar ne UAC ( Upper Air CYclonic Circulation kahevay ane te level na pavan batave chhe. Jamin par na nahi )
Sir 19thi20 date na pavano jova mate ling aapo
Tamara gaam nu accuweather ke wunderground ma forecast jovo ane tema pavan nu pan apel hoi chhe.
Dear ashok sir dev bhumi Dwarka ma Varshad ni koy sakyata khari ta kalyanpur
Update 17 tarikhe aavashe.
Sir colla imag maevu batave 6e ke gujrat ma hevi rein nai thai 1 thi 2 inch batave 6e
Sir chomasu puru thai pasi arab sagar ma sistem banse tame keta k puru thay tyare sistem bane answer please
Bani shake. Samanya ritey chomasu chalu thay ane pooru thay tyare Arabian Sea ma System banti hoi chhe.
Atlast good news for farmers.Ashokbhai,i follow your updates regularly and also try to share with farmers accordingly.Thnx for the almost perfect forecsts you give.Hopefully this time also you will proove to be correct
Update tomorrow we will get better picture about track of the System from Bay of Bengal towards Gujarat.
Thanks sir Sara smachar aapya
It can be storm when it back;in arebiyan sea
Currently there is no indications of a Storm (vavazodu or a Cyclone)
Sir kalavad vistar ma varsad ni khas jaroor che to hal ma koi sara varsad na endhan che
thoda divas pachhi shakyata chhe.
Sir gsk pavan nu jor kevu rahe se
Pavan nu pan 17 tarikhe update ma avashe.
Sir tmaro khub khub abhar bhagvan tmne 100 vras na kre ane sir tmari agahi roj vasu su ane amare tmari agahi vat jota hoy se sir tme 17tarikh ni agahi veli apo avi amari magni se sit pils sir
Sir aa 20/21 tarikha ma uttar Gujarat ma varasad ni sakyata kevi che midium ke bhare
17 tarikh na update ma avashe mara bhai…. chokhu lakhel chhe Gujarati ma.
Answer please.
Low pressure ma pavan jor rehse
Virenbhai 17 tarikhe pakku thai jashe pavan kevo raheshe.
Viren gohel
Sir
20 tarikh pasi kaliyanpur taluka na dariya kathana gamdao mo varsad ni ketli sakyta hase a batavjo plis sir
sir sani thi som sarvtrik varsad paku ke haju sankaspad se ? please sir mare aayojan karva ma anu kul rahse
sanjogo chhe. thoda fer far hoi te 17 sudhi ma nakki thai jashe.
Sir Gujarat ma low pressure ma pavan jor rahse
Ane kevo varchad padse
Answer sir
Tamaru Nam hoi toe lakho
jan lila torane manve puge to haru. . . .
Sir aavakhte pavan nu kevuk jor rese bov to nay aave ne???
17 tarikh na update ma avashe.
sir. akila news am kye ke ashokbhai sathe vat thai hati. . . . to khare khar tamari sathe vat thai 6. k . . apni web. mathi update ni kopi kari ne lolam lol . . . ?
Akila ma barobar lakhel chhe.
tamare email address hoi toe tamru email address lakho.
Sir savare to 19 uac gujrat na dariya kanthe hatu ane atyare ti marashtra mathi uttar taraf jatu hoy tevu lage 6
Thanks sir.
Sir,
GFS ane ECMWF ma je saware 18-21 na prediction chart hata yema Ferfar thay atyare varsad ni matra ghatati dekhay chhe.
Haju agahi diwso lamba gale hovathi ferfar thaya kare.
Overall result ma to varsad avse j ne ?
7 thi 8 divani aaghi etle nathi aapto karan ke tamre bahdha ne dhiraj raheti nathi.
Good news sir,
Aasha rakhi ke system Gujarat ma saro varasad aape.
સર સારા સમાચાર છે
sir bemathi kya modal pramane vadhu faydo thay saurashtra ne
Banne mathi andaj bandhvo pade.
Saurashtra uparthi System 19-20-21 je kal batav to te aaj alag bhtave che to sytem u gujarat bhaju jati hoy tevu lage ! (Real-Time Weather Forecasts from NOAA/NCEP ane imd )
Gud news sir…
Thanks for good news
Good news sir
Thenk you