Update 6th October 2018 @ 9.00 pm. IST

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Update 6th October 2018 7.00 pm. IST

Meteorogical Conditions based on IMD Mid-Day Bulletin:

The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over Southeast Arabian Sea and neighborhood now lies over Southeast and adjoining East central Arabian Sea. Associated Cyclonic Circulation extends up to 7.6 Km above mean sea level. (This WMLP is being monitored by JTWC as 99A.INVEST) It is very likely to concentrate into a Depression and move Northwestwards during next 24 hours. It is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm and move towards Oman Coast thereafter.
Another Low pressure area is likely to form over South Bay of Bengal and neighborhood around 08th October. This Circulation is being monitored by JTWC as 90B.INVEST) It is likely to become more marked and move towards Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh Coasts during the subsequent 72 hours.

Southwest monsoon has further withdrawn from remaining parts of North Bay of Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra, entire Telangana, most parts of Central Bay of Bengal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Central Arabian Sea and some parts of Rayalaseema and Karnataka. The withdrawal line of Southwest monsoon passes through Lat. 16°N/Long. 94°E, Lat. 15°N/long. 90°E, Machilipatnam, Kurnool, Gadag, Vengurla and Lat. 16°N/
Long. 60°E. Southwest monsoon is very likely to withdraw from remaining parts of the country and simultaneously Northeast monsoon rains are very likely to commence over Tamilnadu & Puducherry, Kerala and adjoining parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka around 8th October.

Update 6th October at 9.00 pm : System is now a Depression over SE Arabian Sea and adjoining EC Arabian Sea.

Current Weather Conditions on 6th October 2018

The weather has remained sunny during the last few days with isolated thunderstorms on a day or two. The Maximum Temperature has increased and is above normal on 6th October as under:

Ahmedabad Maximum Temperature was 38.3 C and was 2 C above normal.
Rajkot Maximum Temperature was 39.2 C and was 3 C above normal.
Amreli Maximum Temperature was 38.4 C and was 3 C above normal.
Bhuj Maximum Temperature was 42.2 C and was 5 C above normal.

Forecast: 7th October to 14th October 2018

The Well Marked Low Pressure over Southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining East Central Arabian Sea is getting organized and will concentrate into a Depression by tonight. Subsequently the System is expected to strengthen into a Tropical Cyclone as it track Northwestwards towards Oman Coast. Since the System is not tracking towards Gujarat, no meaningful rainfall expected from this System for Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch. Feeder bands (clouding) of the System could reach Saurashtra/Kutch/Gujarat sometimes and at times there could be localized thunder storms.

Various Forecast Models have differing outcome, however, currently all the Forecast model tracks the System away from the Indian coast. As and when the System weakens, there is a possibility of Western Disturbance to interact with the remnant clouding associated with this System, which would become clearer in a few days.

NRL Satellite Image of 99A.INVEST (IMD – Depression ARB 04/2018) On 6th October 2018 @ 1400 UTC ( 07.30 pm IST)

પરિસ્થિતિ અને નિચોડ : 7 ઓક્ટોબર થી 14 ઓક્ટોબર 2018

અરબી સમુદ્રમાં એક વેલમાર્ક લો પ્રેસર છે જે આજે રાત્રી ના ડિપ્રેસન માં પરિવર્તિત થશે. ત્યાર બાદ ક્રમશ મજબૂત થઇ વાવાઝોડા માં પરિવર્તિત થશે અને ઉત્તર પશ્ચિમ તરફ આગળ વધી આવતા થોડા દિવસો માં ઓમાન તરફ ગતિ કરશે. આ સિસ્ટમ ગુજરાત તરફ ના આવતી હોય સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ ને વરસાદ માં કોઈ વિશેષ લાભ નહિ થાય. ક્યારેક ક્યારેક સિસ્ટમ ના પૂછડિયા વાદળ પહોંચી શકે તેના આનુસંગિક અને ક્યારેક ક્યારેક એકલ દોકલ ગાજ વીજ મંડાણી મે.

વિવિદ્ધ ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ માં હાલ કોઈ મોડેલ આ સિસ્ટમ ને ગુજરાત તરફ નથી લઇ આવતું. તેમ છતાં જયારે સિસ્ટમ નબળી પડશે ત્યારે તેના આનુસંગિક વાદળ સમૂહો ને WD ની અસર કરી શકે છે જે આવતા સમય માં ખ્યાલ આવશે.

અપડેટ 6 ઓક્ટોબર રાત્રે 9.00 વાગ્યે ડિપ્રેસન થઇ ગયું છે અરબી સમુદ્ર માં

આજે છાપા નથી

Caution:Please refer/rely on IMD/RSMC/Government Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter.

સાવચેતી:સ્ટોર્મ કે હવામાન અંગે ની માહિતી માટે ભારતીય હવામાન ખાતા/ગવર્મેન્ટ ના બુલેટીન/સુચના પર નિર્ભર રહેવું.