System Over Northeast Madhya Pradesh Has Weakened To A Low Pressure – UAC Dependent Rainfall Expected Over Gujarat & Then Saurashtra & Kutch 9th To 14th July

Current Weather Conditions on 8th July 2016

The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Lat. 24.0°N/ Long. 60.0°E, Lat. 24.0°N/ Long. 70.0°E, Bhuj, Jodhpur, Phalodi and Lat. 28.0°N/ Long. 71.0°E.

Conditions are becoming favorable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into remaining parts of Kutch and West Rajasthan by 12th/13th July.

The Well Marked Low Pressure area over Northeast Madhya Pradesh & neighborhood, weakened into a Low Pressure area and lies over the same area. The associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extends up to 1.5 km above mean sea level.

The trough at mean sea level now runs from Punjab to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal across Haryana, south Uttar Pradesh, Center of Low Pressure area, Jharkhand, Odisha and Northwest Bay of Bengal.

The off-­shore trough at mean sea level runs from Karnataka coast to Kerala coast.

The Western Disturbance as UAC lies over Eastern parts of Jammu & Kashmir & neighborhood between 2.1 km & 3.6 km above mean sea level.

There is a UAC over Northwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining areas of Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh & Vidarbha between 3.1 & 7.6 km above mean sea level.

Forecast: 9th July to 14th July 2016

The Depression System over Northeast Madhya Pradesh had weakened to a WMLP and subsequently to a Low Pressure over the same region with associated UAC up to 1.5 Kms. above sea level. There is another UAC over a very large area covering Northwest Bay of Bengal, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Chhattisgarh & Vidarbha at 3.1 Kms & 7.6 Kms. above mean sea level. Both these will merge and gradually track Westwards. Main strength of UAC will be at 3.1 kms. upto 5.8 Kms.

 

Wunderground GSF 700 hPa Forecast Dated 8th July 2016 00 UTC valid for 8th July 2016 @ 1200 UTC

 

 

Wunderground_GSF_700_080716_080716_1200z

Wunderground GSF 700 hPa Forecast Dated 8th July 2016 00 UTC valid for 9th July 2016 @ 1200 UTC

 

Wunderground_GSF_700_080716_090716_1200z

Wunderground GSF 700 hPa Forecast Dated 8th July 2016 00 UTC valid for 10th July 2016 @ 1200 UTC

 

Wunderground_GSF_700_080716_100716_1200z

Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch: 9th July to 14th July

Light, medium, heavy rainfall expected initially along Gujarat border areas and subsequently move inwards during the forecast period. The quantum of rainfall is System (UAC) dependent and would var from places to places. Saurashtra expected to get light, medium rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall during the forecast period. All areas of Saurashtra will have varying amount of rainfall and it is difficult to pin point specific areas since the expected rainfall is System dependent (UAC). Monsoon expected to cover the remaining areas of Kutch and so expected to get light to medium rainfall with isolated heavy rain. The quantity of rain will be completely variable. High speed winds from Arabian Sea will blow over Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch during the forecast period. Cloudy weather expected on many days of forecast period.

Rain quantum over Gujarat will be higher than Saurashtra & Kutch.

There is some differences in the forecast location of 850 hPa UAC in Forecat maps of GSF & ECMWF as shown in respective maps valid for 11th July 0600 UTC.

Wunderground ECMWF 850 hPa Forecast Dated 8th July 00 UTC Valid for 11th July 2016 @ 0600 UTC

 

Wunderground_ECMWF_850_080716_110716_0600z

 

Wunderground GFS 850 hPa Forecast Dated 8th July 00 UTC Valid for 11th July 2016 @ 0600 UTC

 Wunderground_GSF_850_080716_110716_0600z

 

 

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 8th July 2016

(નોંધ: કચ્છ માટે સૌરાષ્ટ્ર મૂજબ ની  આગાહી સમજવી )

akila_080716

 

Weather Forecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 8th July 2016

 

 

 SanjSamachar_080716

Guideline for Comments:

1. Please post comment if you have a valid email address.

2. Read earlier comments and their reply before posting any comment.

3. Do not ask question about when the update will take place. Usually as and when deemed fit update will be given.

4. I do not forecast for long term, so do not ask for any forecast beyond 7 days.

5. Do not ask when it will rain in any city, town or village or city. Normally the forecast is given for broad areas of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat. However, for your information Multicity Wunderground Forecast link has been provided for various centers of Gujarat, Sayrashtra & Kutch.

6. All Comments will not be answered. Comments that is meant for larger audience is preferable and will be answered.

 

કમેન્ટ માટે માર્ગદર્શન:

1. ખરું ઈ મેઈલ એડ્રેસ હોઈ તો કમેન્ટ કરો.

2. આગળ સવાલો અને તેના જવાબ વાંચી ને તમારી કમેન્ટ કરો.

3. “અપડેટ ક્યારે થશે ?” તેવા સવાલ કરવા નહિ. સામાન્ય રીતે યોગ્ય લાગશે ત્યારે અપડેટ થશે.

4. હું લાંબા ગાળા ની આગાહી નથી કરતો માટે 7 દિવસ થી આગળ માટે આગાહી બાબત કમેન્ટ ના કરવી.

5. “મારા શહેર, કે ગામ માં વરસાદ ક્યારે થશે ?” તેવા સવાલ પૂછવા નહિ. સામાન્ય રીતે સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ ના બહોળા વિસ્તારો ની આગાહી આપેલ હોઈ છે.

6. જે કમેન્ટ વધુ લોકો ને સ્પર્શતો હોઈ તે આવકાર્ય છે અને તેના યોગ્ય જવાબ મળશે. બધા કમેન્ટ નો જવાબ નહીં મળે.

 

 

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haresh halai (godhra-mandvi)
haresh halai (godhra-mandvi)
12/07/2016 2:38 pm

Sir kutch ma varsad mate vatavren anukul che

Ashish l patel (halvad)
Ashish l patel (halvad)
12/07/2016 2:29 pm

aaje rate north Saurastra ane kale kuch ma dhodhmar varsad aavse aevu mane lage che sir

mehul virani
mehul virani
12/07/2016 2:28 pm

sir ashok bhai jamnagar ma 2 p.m thi saro varsad chalu che

murani yash
12/07/2016 2:13 pm

Sir amara upleta ma pan vatavaran ma ferfar che vadla thay gya pan varasta nathi to have ketli rah jovdavse

Rikin patel
Rikin patel
12/07/2016 2:13 pm

Sir surendranager ma kal rat thi very light rain thay 6e. Haju amare vavni nathi thay so in next 48 hours heavy rain possible in s.nagar.

Sir sattelite image ma IST ane GMT TIME ma lakhel hoy to te ketla vagya ni image hoy te kevi janvu.

Rpl pls

Jaydeepsinh
Jaydeepsinh
12/07/2016 2:07 pm

Saurastra kutch sivai badhe j vrsad pdva nu chalu thai gyu che.khbr ny hji bhagvan ktli rah jovdavana che??

Nimesh
Nimesh
12/07/2016 1:41 pm

Hi sir,tame aapeli 8 tarikh ni aagahi karta saurashtra mate vadhu sara samachar kae che????

Vala Ajit
Vala Ajit
12/07/2016 1:38 pm

Sir smare keshod baju aaje.ughad Thai gayo 6.tadko 6.to vatavaran ma etli jaldi kem change aavi gayu hase?

sanjay patel
sanjay patel
12/07/2016 1:35 pm

Jamnagar na dhrol ma jordar varsad

Raju Ahir (Visavadar )
Raju Ahir (Visavadar )
12/07/2016 1:23 pm

Sir tamari Badhi comment vachta Evu lage se k sourashtra ma saro evo varsad avavano se… Paku ne?

kuldipsinh
kuldipsinh
12/07/2016 1:23 pm

sir Rajkot ma today vatavran change thy giyu 6e sara varsad na koi chances khra..?

Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
12/07/2016 12:55 pm

“Bov daey didhu nath,ja have biju nathi mangvu” saheb comment na answer mathi khyal avi gyo…24 kalaak to shu 48 kalak kadhi nakhshu…we proud of your confirmation

Divyesh patel
Divyesh patel
12/07/2016 12:54 pm

ashokbhai aa khari pavan (arbi pavan) varsad lay aavse saurastra ma ke aavi Ne aavi fooko aavse varsad nahi aave

Amit
Amit
12/07/2016 12:48 pm

Sir,
Morbi-Tankara vachche Virpar gam ma haju Ek Tipu pan Varsad nathi.

Mahesh dabhi
Mahesh dabhi
12/07/2016 12:42 pm

Sir,
Gandhinagar ma sravan ni heli chalu thay gay hoy tevo varsad chalu che kal sanj thi.

Vijay Chauhan
Vijay Chauhan
12/07/2016 12:33 pm

Sir jamraval kalyanpur aje vatavaran ma bhare ferfar chhe, pavan nathi and bhare vadlo chhe laage 6 aaje tamari agahi pramane varsad avse

Raju Ahir (Visavadar )
Raju Ahir (Visavadar )
12/07/2016 12:29 pm

Sir sourashtra ma to ughad nikli gayo se to varsad avse k ny Ave?

manish ram
manish ram
12/07/2016 12:24 pm

Sir gujarat ma agami 24 kalak ma bhare thi aati bhare varasad ni aagahi chhe to saurastra ma varasad aavse khas karine dariya kantha na vistar ma. Tame saurastra ma halvo varasad lakhel chhe pls.ripley

paresh chandera
paresh chandera
12/07/2016 12:23 pm

sir cola/age jota evu lage se ke avta divso ma saurastra ma varsad ni matra vadhase.

vipul
vipul
12/07/2016 12:21 pm

sir koi UAC Ma varsad ocho ave ane UAC Ma saro ave! to UAC Ni quality ma kai fark hoy ke e kudrati karamat hoy?

Manav
Manav
12/07/2016 12:11 pm

Upleta ma 8mm jevo varsad from 9:30 to 9:50 am

gunjan jadav ( Dahod )
gunjan jadav ( Dahod )
12/07/2016 12:11 pm

Sir savar thi saaro varsad chaalu CHE hamna 1 kalak ma 2 inch jetlo padyo haal maa pan chaalu che Dahod naa aaju baaju gaamdama

vijay zankat
vijay zankat
12/07/2016 12:08 pm

Sir surashtra mate kay sara samachar lage ce

bapodara arashi
bapodara arashi
12/07/2016 12:04 pm

Sar savrastra ma hadavo madhyam aetale badej avase porabandar ma 15 divas aagha thay aetalo aavase

jayesh patel
jayesh patel
12/07/2016 11:58 am

sir surendranagar ma ketali jagiya a chanta padiya date 11/7 modi raat thi kheduto ni aasha bandhay tevu vatavaran se have evu lage se k thai jase,,,,,,,,,ane coment na tamara javab vanchi ne khub aanad thai se thanks sir

Yahya shaikh
Yahya shaikh
12/07/2016 11:44 am

It’s Raining heavily in AHMEDABAD
Thanks a Lott to UAC over west MP and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat…☺

Harsh
Harsh
12/07/2016 11:40 am

Sir any chances for gondal and near by areas for lite too medium rain..?

yogesh patel
yogesh patel
12/07/2016 11:35 am

Morbi na kantha na vistaro ma khub saro varsad.

jignesh
jignesh
12/07/2016 10:27 am

JAY HARI.

YOUR wether analysis very much.
BHAGVAN varsad APE 6E.

Sangani dipak
Sangani dipak
12/07/2016 10:20 am

Sir good morning
Sir news paper ma aje 24hr ni aagahi ape 6e e mujab savrastra ma varsad avse k su ane ketlo ave evi sakyata 6e

Er.Nikunj Godhani
Er.Nikunj Godhani
12/07/2016 10:13 am

Sir good morning
tamara study mujab aaje jamnagar dist.ma varsad avavani koi possibility che…?

Dr.Upendra Gadhia
Dr.Upendra Gadhia
12/07/2016 10:05 am

Dear Ashokbhai,
Mild but steady rain at morbi navlakhi highway near Village Barvala since 9:45am.would like to know if there are chances of better rain for the area as per current weather conditions.

Nirmal
Nirmal
12/07/2016 9:39 am

Sabarkantha Himatnagar and aju baju na area ma Around 1 inch jetlo kal sanja thi savar sudhi dhimi dhare varsad….

Tushar shah
Tushar shah
12/07/2016 8:46 am

It rained yesterday entire night…slow n steady n till now continuing…

Tushar shah
Tushar shah
Reply to  Ashok Patel
12/07/2016 9:42 am

Godhra panchmahals…

paresh chandera
paresh chandera
12/07/2016 8:22 am

sir saurastra ma mangrol-madhavpur dariya patti baju system ni asar agahi samay darmyan thase?

rakesh . vadodara
rakesh . vadodara
12/07/2016 7:43 am

Vadodara ma rate saro varsad padyo.

murani yash
12/07/2016 7:01 am

Sir varsad avani gujarat ma sakyata che ? News ma kahe che

Yagnik Vaishnani
Yagnik Vaishnani
12/07/2016 2:21 am

Rajkot upar whether no site ma vadada dekhay chee pan haju kem varasad nathi avto news vada 24 kalak no agahi ape kyana adhare

Manvar Umesh
Manvar Umesh
12/07/2016 12:46 am

Best fevrabale weather. But no Rain in Rajkot jamnagar Distic.

Jaydeepsinh
Jaydeepsinh
12/07/2016 12:40 am

Sir nullschool forcast ma j pavano nu chakra bane che a low pressure darsave che??

Amit Malli
Amit Malli
12/07/2016 12:03 am

Dear sir
Varsad badhi jagya ma padi rahyo che pan khas kari ne saurashtra ma rajkot district ma khub ocho varsad padyo che & amuk jagya ye to haji vavani layak varsad pan nathi to aava sanjogo ma rajkot district ma varsad na chances che khara?

diken lalakiya
diken lalakiya
11/07/2016 11:14 pm

Sir tame je nondh savrast mate je lakheli che te ketala taka samjava ane sir tamari aagahi Amara mate mahatva ni chhe sir

kantilal kansagra
kantilal kansagra
11/07/2016 11:02 pm

Are there possibility of rain in Saurashtra in next two to three days? Thank you very much in advance

Anil patel
Anil patel
11/07/2016 10:57 pm

No rain chance in surastra

kaushal
kaushal
11/07/2016 10:52 pm

Hi Ashok Bhai,

Ahmedabad Weather Update :-

Khub saras varsad saruaat ma thodi var dhodhmar, pachi dhimo madhyam dhimo mdhyam chalu 6ek vagya thi chalu, atyare 11 vage bhi chalu.

Anand vat to a che k aakha Ahmedabad ma che. Aa varsad ma khari maja padi. Office thi ghar sudhi paladta paladta gayo….khub j maja padi 🙂

Tamaru prediction ane kudrat sathe mali gaya…moj padi gai 🙂 bhagvan kare jaldi aavo varsad saurashtra kutch gujarat ma baki rahela tamam ne made 🙂

Thanks.

vaibhav
vaibhav
11/07/2016 10:47 pm

sir sarsa gam(anand jillo) ma saro dhodhmar varsad padi rahyo chhe. 10.20 pm onwards…still continue..

bhikhu ahir
bhikhu ahir
11/07/2016 10:46 pm

Mane to badhi system rajasthan baju jati hoy tevu lage 6e
Sir final kahij do k sauratra ma jamnagar ne to koi chance 6e j nahi. Ame roji roti ane pasu ni vyavastha kariye.generaly system no rasto kadach amari taraf nahi thay agala varas jevuj 6e

jadeja mayursinh
jadeja mayursinh
11/07/2016 10:38 pm

Sir dang jila ma 11 kalak ma 18 inch varsad news ma batave 6e su sachu 6e ??

Dinesh Gol Derdi(kumbhaji)
Dinesh Gol Derdi(kumbhaji)
11/07/2016 10:37 pm

અશોકભાઈ શુરયાપવનથી વરસાદ આવે એવુ બથા કેતાહોય સે અને વરસાદ આવેપણસે તો તે કોય સીસટમનિ અસર હોય કે બીજુ કાય પરીબલ કામ કરેસે સાબ ?

sanjay parecha
sanjay parecha
11/07/2016 10:23 pm

Given the predicted rain and rain in Saurashtra in Gujarat shows up in the news.

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