Update Dated 1st October 2018
Meteorogical Conditions based on IMD Mid-Day Bulletin:
The Southwest Monsoon has further withdrawn from remaining parts of Rajasthan, entire Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, some parts of East Uttar Pradesh, West & East Madhya Pradesh and some more parts of Gujarat state & North Arabian Sea.
The withdrawal line of Southwest Monsoon now passes through Bahraich, Nowgong, Bhopal, Indore, Bharuch, Veraval, lat. 21.0°N/long. 65.0°E and lat. 21.0°N/ long. 60.0°E.
Conditions are favorable for further withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from remaining parts of East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and North Arabian Sea, some parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra during next 2-3 days.
A Low Pressure area is likely to develop over Southeast Arabian sea around 6th October. It is likely to intensify into a Depression and move Northwestwards during subsequent 48 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into Southeast & Central Arabian Sea from 07th October, 2018 on wards. Fishermen at deep sea areas of Southeast & Central Arabian Sea are advised to return to coast before 07th October.
Current Weather Conditions on 1st October 2018
The weather has remained dry and sunny during the last few days. The Maximum Temperature has increased and is above normal on 30th September as under:
Ahmedabad Maximum Temperature was 37.4 C and was 2 C above normal.
Rajkot Maximum Temperature was 37.9 C and was 2 C above normal.
Amreli Maximum Temperature was 37.4 C and was 2 C above normal.
Bhuj Maximum Temperature was 40.2 C and was 4 C above normal.
Advance Indication: 7th October to 14th October 2018
There is a likelihood of a development of a Low Pressure over Arabian Sea during this period. The System is expected to strengthen significantly. The Forecast track is currently uncertain since it is oscillating on a Daily basis from Gujarat to Pakistan to Oman at at times towards Yemen, depending upon various Forecast Models and Forecast Runs. Updates will be published as and when there is better clarity on the Forecast outcome.
આગોતરું એંધાણ : 7ઓક્ટોબર થી 14 ઓક્ટોબર 2018
અરબી સમુદ્ર માં એક લો પ્રેસર થવાની શક્યતા જણાય છે અને ક્રમશ મજબૂત સિસ્ટમ ની શક્યતા છે. વિવિધ ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ તેમજ દર રોજ ના ફોરકાસ્ટ રન મુજબ સંભવિત સિસ્ટમ નો ફોરકાસ્ટ ટ્રેક બહુ ઝોલા ખાય છે જે ક્યારેક ગુજરાત તરફ તો ક્યારેક પાકિસ્તાન તરફ તો ક્યારેક ઓમાન તરફ અને ક્યારેક યેમેન તરફ ગતિ કરે છે. જેમ જેમ નિશ્ચિતતા દેખાશે તેમ અપડેટ થશે
Caution:Please refer/rely on IMD/RSMC/Government Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter.
સાવચેતી:સ્ટોર્મ કે હવામાન અંગે ની માહિતી માટે ભારતીય હવામાન ખાતા/ગવર્મેન્ટ ના બુલેટીન/સુચના પર નિર્ભર રહેવું.
8thi12 nu vavajodu Gujarat ne ketli asar karde Ashok sar
Haal na anuman pramaney samanya asar. Parantu aaje Low thai jashe and tena loction pramaney vadhu chokkasta avashe.
ITCZ South baju shift thay tyare arb&bob ma cyclone season kahe chhe.aa prakriya ne lidhe Arb ma normally kya month sudhi system banvani possibility vadhu hoy chhe?
ITZC CHomasa ma Equator thi North Baju jaay aney withdrawa thay tyare fari Equator Taraf and Niche jaay.
CHomasa pahela 2 months and Chomasa pachhi 2 months Cyclone ni shakyata vadhu hoy chhe.
Mitro thodo ghano varsad to padsej bhale vavajodu Gujarat taraf na ave to pan ane thodo ghano etle 5 to 10 mm sudhinoj varsad thunderstorm Jode have Kya ketlo padse e saturday na khabar padse detailed update ma
Sir vavajoda ni gusting speed ketli hase..
Gusting speed etle shu ?
Speed ketli rehse anuman (gusting speed )
Vavazodu thay tyare 65 km per hour hoy aney zatka na pavano 80 km per hour hoy.
Majboot System ma pavan 200 km/hour oopar jata hoy chhe
Hello sir,
Oopala levele ma kya levele na pavano ave.Ane oopalu levele windy ma kyathi jovanu.
Please reply Sir.
oopla level ma pavan speed joy shakay and Geopotential height joy shakay.
Normal pressure oopala level ma je hovu joiye tenathi nichu thai jaay System ni oopar.
System ne oopla level ma jyan pressure aaju baaju thi oochu hoy te avrodh karey. etle jyan sahekay thi jaavaay te baju System jaay.
સર..
અરબી સમુદ્ર ની સીસ્ટમ લો પ્રેશર થયા બાદ WMLP>DP>DDP ના તબક્કા આવશે.. આ સમયે BOB ની સીસ્ટમ સાથે (કદાચ) હાથ મીલાવે.. આ ગાળામાં સીસ્ટમ શકિત અને માર્ગ નક્કી કરવામાં અનેક પરિબળો કામ કરશે.. અને આ પરિબળો ની શકિત/અસર પણ વધઘટ થતી હોવા ના કારણે જ સીસ્ટમ નો ટ્રેક બદલતો રહે છે..
આપણા કમનસીબે સૌરાષ્ટ્ર/કચ્છ ને DAYE સીસ્ટમ નો ફાયદો ના મળ્યો.. સીસ્ટમ આપણા શેઢે આવીને ઊભી રહી ગઇ.. બાકી DAYE સિસ્ટમે ભારત ના 19 જેટલા રાજ્યો ને વરસાદ આપ્યો હતો..
આ વખતે પણ નસીબ અજમાવવા ના છે..હરિ રીજશે તો છપ્પર ફાડ આપશે.. એ આપનાર છે.. હરિ/કુદરત ઇચ્છા બળવાન..
Sir aaje ta bhanvd vlg fot ma 15min varsad padiyo pavan sathe
Sir surastama Varsad ke vavajoda chance keva se
Sanivar update thashe
Sir pachi kyare k time hoy tyare mare wd vise a to z janvu Che
E kevi rite jovay,
Ema su paribad aave
E na thi su asar pade ……
WD etle UAC je Pashchim baju thi Poorva baju jatu hoy. North India ooparthi. Afghanistan aney tenathi pashchim baju thi aavey WD.
Sir, Bob no sistem Kai vadhare labh apavi shake?
BOB System etli jor ma nathi Arabian Sea jevi (Banne haju thavani chhe )
Sir.have aasha rakhvani thoda gana.varsad ni
Yes
Tnx sar have vishvash avyo
Kaya kaya vistarma ? Kyare kyare ?
Saras
Sir, Babara ma gajvij sathe varsad sharu thayo 6e.15 minit thi padi rahyo 6e.Ane atyare pan sharuj 6e.
Good night sir, sistem banya bad badha forecast model track babat ek j “PANGAT” ma bese ke buffet ni jem?
Jem time ochho baaki hoy tem badha najik aavi jaay.
Sir bangaal ni khadi ma pan system banti hoi avu lage chhe
Nai ave to drax khati biju su ? aem samjvanu
6/7 tarikh thi badha janaiya (models) jan ne ek taraf lai jashe gujarat taraf…system oman baju 2 divas chalse tyar pachi turn mari direct kutch pakistan border par hashe…tyare system wmlp hashe….confirm.apnu su manvu chhe sir?
Update Saturday chhe. BAhu vahelu hatu and fer far 6 kalake thay toe kimatlab nathi.
Low aavati kale bani jashe.
Sir system no atyarno track Oman baju vadhare batave chhe,te omam ane Karachi vachhe,thi Rahe tevu bani sake
Karan k Jo am thay to pan saurastra katch ne phaydo thay tevu chhe.
Saurashtra kutch ne asar toe karshe (Haal Samanya.. fer far ne aadhin) etle update Saturday 6th October .
Sir,9 ane 10 Oct WD thay che tevu lage che ane ek cyclone Bob ma pn bane che ane Jem agal me comments kreli che tem skymate pramane Oman baju Pavan nu jor Vadhu hoy atle atle system gujrat baju Vali sake che????
To su aa mosam pranilo ne vavazuda ne asar karta kahi sakay …..su wd ane Bob tatha Oman na bhare Pavan syst ne asar kre khara????
Oman ma bhare pavan nu kon kahe chhe ?
System ne oopla level ma avrodh hoy te baju na jaay.
Sir have suvrastr baju sistam aave avu koi pribad che jethi karine model rasto badlavi sake karan k haji koi paku nathi kahi saktu ?
Low aavati kale bani jashe etle updaye Saturday chhe.
Heavy rail in amreli….
Steal continue rain…
આપણે સૌરાષ્ટ્ર માં આખી સીઝન બધી સિસ્ટમ ડેલીએ હાથ દઈને ગઈ.
Sir atyare amuk jagyae varsad pade chhe sau.ane daxin guj.ma teni Sathe bhare pavan hoy chhe te ne su kahevay Ane te Sana karne hoy chhe Biju ke teni disa ekj hoy ke vavazodu na jem golakar hoy?
Vavazodu te bahu vishal hoy… vistar ma.
Aa je thay chhe tene vantodiyo kahe je bahu mota vistar ma na hoy.
Lo badha model ae vavajodane UAE pohachadi didhu. Ram ram thay gya.
Varsad saru
Sir, aa system gujrat baju aave ke na pan aana pa6i mandaniya varsad nu jor vadhi sake ke ????
Amook divase tobra nikadshe.
saru varsad to aavsene
पश्चिमी विक्षोभ या वेस्टर्न डिस्टर्बन्स (Western Disturbance) भारतीय उपमहाद्वीप के उत्तरी इलाक़ों में सर्दियों के मौसम में आने वाले ऐसे तूफ़ान को कहते हैं जो वायुमंडल की ऊँची तहों में भूमध्य सागर, अन्ध महासागर और कुछ हद तक कैस्पियन सागर से नमी लाकर उसे अचानक वर्षा और बर्फ़ के रूप में उत्तर भारत, पाकिस्तान व नेपाल पर गिरा देता है। उत्तर भारत में रबी की फ़सल के लिये, विशेषकर गेंहू के लिये, यह तूफ़ान अति-आवश्यक होते हैं।
Sir antyare varsad ane thunderstorm aavi tevi purepuri sakyata lage se sena karne
Windy 700 hPA ma GFS and ECMWF jovo Saurashtra ma
Sir aa vavajoda ni asar nahi thay Gujarat ne karn ke 12 tarike pachi vavajodu nabdu batave che
sir aa system bnya na time a ek WD skriy thay che t e WD system ne east baju khenchse jm last time system MP sudhi noartwest chali ane Pchi MP thi WD ne lidhe NE chali.
Aama kon joruku hoy te jovanu hoy. vavazodu jorkartu hoy toe WD bahu asar na kari shakey. Jo System mori padi hoy toe WD tene Poorva baju dhasadi shakey.
Sir, aaje aajkal news paper ma kale Arabian sagar valu low pressure thay jase aevu kahe 6e.. right sir?
Koi pan News ma teno mahiti strot jovo.
IMD nu chhe ? toe barobar…
એ એ આતો ફૂઇ વાંહે ભત્રીજી જાહે અને આપડે મામા બની જાશું એવું લાગે હે
ઓમાનથી બાઉંસબેક થવાની શક્યતા ખરી ?
Badhu thai shake… ghani vaar chhe. Low kaley bani jashe evu lage chhe.
Gsf model mujab cyclon daksin pachim taraf jay rahyu se have te final se ke haju fer far se
Utar bharat garminu praman vathe to tenathi te gujrat taraf avi sake
Disa lakhva ma fer padi gayo ?
Ottar Pashchim ke ?
Sorry utar pachim
Cola jota evu lage se k samany varsad thase
Toy sir sistem Kranchi Baju Lend thahe.
Sir imd fakt system Oman tarf jay tem Nathi kahyu pn sambhavna Che ke te tarf jai ske…Sathe ae pnn lakhel Che ke mid areabian ma system pahochi jay tyare western though tene asar kre Vadhu to teni track Gujarat tarf ke Karachi trf thai ske…aetle Naa aave ahi tevu Mani na levay… right sir..
Joe & Toe
Sir skymet aem kahe che k jo system oman baju jay to pan indian coast per khatro gayo nahi kahevay kem k jo oman baju gayu ane cyclone nu mood badlayu to tyathi turn marine Gujarat taraf pan aavi shake to shu aavu thai shake sir ???
Badha ne jo and toe kahevu chhe… Haal vadhu shakyata Oman taraf chhe. Fakt CMC ICON Gujarat baju adikham chhe.
Mukhya banne ECMWF and GFS OMan baju chhe.
Sir system oman baju jay che pan 8 date ma wd pass thai che to system turn Mari gujrat tarf aavi shake
sir badha model imd bulletin par thi avu lage che arabiam system Oman baju jase pan tyathi turn mari gujrat baju ave te agal juvo pade…Baki hmna t track oman baju che
Vavajodu oman baju javana chances vadhare dekhai rahya Che etle badha mitro ne janavi devanu ke apde 2 ke 3 diwas samanya effect thai sake bahu kai khaas nai thay ane thodo ghano varsad padi sake Che zapta na roop ma 5 thi 10 mm sudhi baki to bahu kai varsad ni shakyata have dekhati nathi
IMD na MSLP chart jota oman thi turn laine pakistan ne iran pase hit kare che.
jyare Windy nu GFS pan same batave che.
only ECMWF model oman ane yemen par landfall batave che.
Generally tracking babte Windy nu ECMWF vadhare trustable che.
but final to IMD ni report j hase. kemke national weather center thi vadhare accurate koi predict nathi kartu. etle final IMD pramane j hse.
IMD GFS pramane varsad thay to saurastra ne pani ni ghat ochi thay jase.
let see su thay che. Reality v/s forecast..
Sir Varshad No Labh Saurastra Maa Thase Ke Nahi.
Atyar na model pramaney samanya varsad batave chhe
Thanks Sir.
Sir
Ghana khara model Oman baju batave che Icon Imd Gfs thodu Gujrat Pakistan baju ni sakyata batave che to haju saurashtra ma aasha rakhay ? Vavazodu no aave to pan varsad ni sakyata Ketali ?
Samanya shakyata
Sir. Imd bay of bangal ma 8 Tarikh nu kahe se sasu sir????
Tee khotey khota IMD kai kahe ?
Sir windy mujab jota system Oman ma jay che…Gujarat ne to Kai j labh thay am nathi…
Sir. Varraja ne ponkhvano moko Oman varav ne made aevu lage 6.tamare Aama Kaik kevu hoy to kiyo.
Saturday update thashe.
સર આજે બોપોર ના imd બુલેટીન મા જાહેર થયું કે અરબી મા જે વાવાઝોડુ થાય તે ઓમાન બાજુ જસે
સાચી વાત છે
Te IMD ne evu lagyu etle kahel chhe. Takavari te baju ni vadhi samjo.
sir imd kahe che sistem Oman par tratakse To chu thache Aapdu…?
Kay thodu ghanu Aavche k Ram Ram karvanu…?
aajni comment na jawab vancho