Well Marked Low Pressure Now Over South West Arabian Sea – Expected To Concentrate Into A Depression In 12 Hours & Strengthen Further To Cyclonic Storm In 48 Hours

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

BULLETIN NO. : 1 (ARB 03/2018)
TIME OF ISSUE: 20300 HOURS IST DATED: 21.05.2018

Depression over Southwest Arabian Sea

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Current Weather Conditions on 21st May 2018 @ 07.00 pm. IST

Abstract from IMD Forecast Bulletin issued on 21st May 2018 at 1615 IST:

The Well Marked Low Pressure area over Southeast and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea now lies over Southwest Arabian Sea with the associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extending up to Mid-tropospheric levels. It is very likely to concentrate into a Depression during next 24 hours and further into a Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 48 hours. It is very likely to move Northwestwards towards South Oman/Southeast Yemen coasts during next 5 days.

As per NRL: 92A.INVEST over the South West Arabian Sea is located at 8.3°N & 58.2°E with 30 knots & 1002 mb. on 21st May 2018 @ 1200 UTC.

From JTWC: Reissued on 21st May 2018 @ 0400 UTC

ABIO10 PGTW 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/210400Z-211800ZMAY2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.7N 64.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 58.7E, APPROXIMATELY 755 
NM SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISCERNIBLE BUT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH BEGINNING TO WRAP 
IN. A 210148Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD 
CIRCULATION WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE 
NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH THE CENTER UNDER 5-10 KNOTS 
VWS AND THE PERIPHERY UNDER 15-20 KNOTS VWS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY DEPICTS ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (31+ CELSIUS), WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR 
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE 
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY  
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL OVER OMAN IS 
STILL UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

હાલ ની સ્થિતિ અને અંદાજ:

દક્ષિણ પૂર્વ અરબી સમુદ્ર નું લો પ્રેસર હાલ દક્ષિણ પશ્ચિમ અરબી સમુદ્ર માં છે અને મજબૂત બની વેલમાર્કડ લો પ્રેસર થયું છે. જે આજે રાત્રી સુધી માં ડિપ્રેસન માં પરિવર્તિત થશે અને ત્યાર બાદ તારીખ 23 સુધીમાં વધુ મજબૂત બની વાવાઝોડા માં પરિવર્તિત થશે. હાલ ની ECMWF ફોરકાસ્ટ ટ્રેક યમન/ઓમાન તરફ છે તો GFS મોડલ માં ફોરકાસ્ટ ટ્રેક વધુ ઉત્તર એટલે ઓમાન તરફ બતાવે છે. આવતા 24 કલાક માં વધુ અંદાજ આવશે.

Note: The Well Marked Low Pressure is located over South West Arabian Sea and is expected to concentrate into a Depression by night of 21st May and to a Cyclonic Storm by 23rd May. There is a differing outcome for the System track between most global models with ECMWF outcome. GFS takes it towards Oman while ECMWF takes it towards Yemen/Oman border areas. Clarity in forecast outcome is expected in 24 hour.