First Seasonal El Nino Thresh Hold Reached – Now For A Full Fledged El Nino NOAA Criteria Requires ONI >= +0.5ºC For A Continuous Period Of Four More Months

First Seasonal El Nino Thresh Hold Reached – Now For A Full Fledged El Nino NOAA Criteria Requires ONI >= +0.5ºC For A Continuous Period Of Four More Months

El Nino થ્રેશ હોલ્ડ પહેલા ચરણે પહોંચ્યું – હવે વિધિવત El Nino માટે NOAA ના નિયમો મુજબ સળંગ ચાર મહિના ONI >= +0.5ºC રહેવું જોઈએ

Enso Status on 5th July 2023

The first El Nino thresh hold has been reached for AMJ 2023 with ONI at +0.5ºC. Earlier Enso Neutral conditions had prevailed in the earlier three 3-monthly seasons JFM ONI at -0.4ºC, FMA ONI at -0.1ºC and MAM 2023 ONI at +0.2ºC.

Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :

The first El Nino thresh hold has been reached for AMJ 2023 with ONI at +0.5ºC. Earlier Enso Neutral conditions had prevailed in the earlier three 3-monthly seasons JFM ONI at -0.4ºC, FMA ONI at -0.1ºC and MAM 2023 ONI at +0.2ºC. NOAA criteria stipulates that a Full fledged El Nino requires five 3-monthly seasons with ONI => 0.5C, which can only be achieved earliest at the end of October 2023 since the AMJ is at First El Nino thresh hold with ONI at +0.5ºC . Hence it can be concluded that a full fledged El Nino is not possible during the Indian Southwest Monsoon season which ends at the end of September 2023. The other development is that SOI is currently in the Neutral territory after having been in negative zone last month. El Nino requires SOI to be in the negative zone. Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Niño events

Indian Monsoon & Enso relationship for India:

Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA for the whole country. Monsoon Rainfall over India had been +106% of LPA at the end of 30th September 2022. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India and warrants research for concrete co-relations for each region of India if any.

અશોક પટેલ નું તારણ અને વિશ્લેષણ :

AMJ 2023 નું ONI +0.5ºC હોય El Nino પહેલા ચરણે (પહેલા ત્રિમાસિક) પહોંચ્યું. આની પહેલા ના 3 ત્રિમાસિક સિઝન માં જે JFM ONI -0.4ºC, FMA ONI -0.1ºC અને MAM 2023 ONI +0.2ºC હતા જે Enso Neutral હતા. પહેલી ત્રિમાસિક સીઝન El Nino થ્રેશ હોલિડે પહોંચ્યું હોય NOAA ના નિયમો મુજબ હવે આવા 4 મહિના El Nino થ્રેશ હોલ્ડ જળવાય રહેવો જોઈએ તો વહેલા માં વહેલું ઓક્ટોબર 2023 માં વિધિવત El Nino પ્રસ્થાપિત થઇ શકે. ત્યાં સુધી માં ઇન્ડિયા નું ચોમાસુ સપ્ટેમ્બર 2023 માં પૂરું થઇ જશે. El Nino સાથે સંકળાયેલ પરિબળ SOI છે. જૂન આખર માં SOI ન્યુટ્રલ ઝોન માં હતું જે મે મહિના આખર માં નેગેટિવે ઝોન માં હતું. એલ નિનો માટે SOI નેગેટિવ ઝોન માં હોવું જરૂરી છે. પ્રશાંત મહાસાગર અને તેની ઉપર નું વાતાવરણ હજુ સંપૂર્ણ રીતે જોડાયેલા નથી, જેમ કે El Nino ઘટનાઓ દરમિયાન થાય છે.

આગળ ના 100 વર્ષ થી વધુ ની શરેરાશ પ્રમાણે એલ નિનો વર્ષ માં ભારતીય ચોમાસુ 94% રહેલ છે, જયારે લા નિના વર્ષ માં ચોમાસુ 106% રહેલ છે. ભારતીય ચોમાસા માટે વિવિદ્ધ પરિબળો પૈકી નું એલ નિનો/લા નિના ફક્ત એક પરિબળ છે. ભારત ના અલગ અલગ વિસ્તારો ના ચોમાસા પર એલ નિનો/લા નિના ની અસર એક સરખી નથી થતી, જે હાલ રિસર્ચ નો ઠોસ વિસય છે.

How ONI is determined:

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5).

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA

The last La Nina 2021-23 ONI Index were JAS 2021 -0.5ºC ASO 2021 -0.7ºC SON 2021 -0.8ºC, OND 2021 -1.0ºC, NDJ 2021 -1.0ºC, DJF 2022 -1.0ºC, JFM 2022 -0.9ºC, FMA 2022 -1.0ºC, MAM 2022 -1.1ºC, AMJ 2022 -1.0ºC, MJJ 2022 -0.9ºC, JJA -0.8ºC, JAS 2022 -0.9ºC, ASO 2022 -1.0ºC, SON 2022 -1.0ºC, OND 2022 -0.9ºC, NDJ 2023 -0.8ºC, DJF 2023 -0.7ºC and the last Enso Neutral ONI Index are JFM 2023 -0.4ºC, FMA 2023 -0.1ºC, MAM 2023 +0.2ºC and now the El Nino thresh hold ONI Index AMJ 2023 +05ºC.

Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows
First El Nino Thresh Hold Achieved End Of June 2023

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5

Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust
YR   MON  Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC


2021   7   26.90   27.29   -0.39
2021   8   26.32   26.86   -0.53
2021   9   26.16   26.72   -0.55
2021  10   25.78   26.72   -0.94
2021  11   25.76   26.70   -0.94
2021  12   25.54   26.60   -1.06
2022   1   25.61   26.55   -0.95
2022   2   25.88   26.76   -0.89
2022   3   26.33   27.29   -0.97
2022   4   26.72   27.83   -1.11
2022   5   26.83   27.94   -1.11
2022   6   26.98   27.73   -0.75
2022   7   26.60   27.29   -0.70
2022   8   25.88   26.86   -0.97
2022   9   25.65   26.72   -1.07
2022  10   25.73   26.72   -0.99
2022  11   25.80   26.70   -0.90
2022  12   25.75   26.60   -0.86
2023   1   25.84   26.55   -0.71
2023   2   26.30   26.76   -0.46
2023   3   27.19   27.29   -0.11
2023   4   27.96   27.83    0.14
2023   5   28.40   27.94    0.46
2023   6   28.54   27.73    0.81

Indications and analysis of various International Weather/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:

Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  Dated 3rd July 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
El Niño conditions are observed.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the eastcentral and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with weak El Niño conditions.
El Niño conditions are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.

Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

30 Days average SOI was -3.19 at the end of June 2023 and was +0.95 on 4th July 2023 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -5.65 on 4th July 2023. The SOI has come back to neutral zone.

Southern Oscillation Index

As per BOM, Australia:

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 2 July 2023 was +1.1, returning to the neutral range over the past fortnight. Value for the 90-day SOI was −5.5. Both the 30-day and 90-day SOI have shown a steady decrease in magnitude over the past month.

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

As per BOM – Australia 4th July 2023

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Kalpesh makwana
Kalpesh makwana
05/07/2023 8:54 pm

અલનીનો ની અસર થાશે ૧૦૧ ટકા થાશે પછી

Place/ગામ
Supedi
Retd Dhiren patel
Retd Dhiren patel
Reply to  Ashok Patel
05/07/2023 9:24 pm

Sachi vat sar, PDO + hoy to e aapda chomasa ne Kai bhag bhajve ?

Place/ગામ
Bhayavadar
Ranchhodbhai Khunt
Ranchhodbhai Khunt
05/07/2023 4:18 pm

Thanks for information, elnino ni asar avatar varse page k nahi sir?

Place/ગામ
Chandli
Gita Ben Jayeshbhai Thummar
Gita Ben Jayeshbhai Thummar
05/07/2023 2:19 pm

Thenks new apadet mate

Place/ગામ
Kalavad
Krutarth Mehta
Krutarth Mehta
05/07/2023 1:46 pm

Aje to Vadodara ma jordar bafaro che ane vatavaran saru che varsad mate lage che sanjhe ke rate barobar tuti padse..

Place/ગામ
Vadodara
Kd patel
Kd patel
05/07/2023 1:38 pm

Cola week 1&2 banne bhuka kadhe se

have varap ni jarur se ne varasad vadhi jahe

Place/ગામ
Makhiyala junagadh
Retd Dhiren patel
Retd Dhiren patel
05/07/2023 1:34 pm

Jsk sir, Pet no far dur karva khub khub aabhar.

Place/ગામ
Bhayavadar
hardik
hardik
05/07/2023 1:34 pm

1 divas na viram bad bhavnagar city ma aje pachi varsad ni entry thay gay che

Place/ગામ
bhavnagar
Dabhi ashok
Dabhi ashok
05/07/2023 1:29 pm

Thank you sir for new information apava badal abhar

Place/ગામ
Gingani
Javid
Javid
05/07/2023 1:27 pm

Sir aaje sware 10&11 vage aakas ma Suraj na farte Motu god kudaylu htu jordar to sir upla leval mo bhej vadhare hse ena hisabe kundaylu hse ke kem

Place/ગામ
At arnitimba ta wankaner
Last edited 1 year ago by Javid
Javid
Javid
Reply to  Ashok Patel
05/07/2023 1:57 pm

Sir je gol kundaylu htu upla leval ma bhej vadhare na hisabe to sir varsad nu jor vadhare kevay ke kem

Place/ગામ
At arnitimba ta wankaner
Randhir dangar
Randhir dangar
05/07/2023 1:09 pm

Khub saras mahiti Ane sathe Gujarati ma samaj ni mahiti mate khub khub aabhar

Place/ગામ
Morbi
Paras
Paras
05/07/2023 1:09 pm

Thank you for new update

Place/ગામ
Jamnagar, vavberaja
Dhaduk paresh
Dhaduk paresh
05/07/2023 12:52 pm

Thnx form new information sir ji

Place/ગામ
Gondal khandadhar
Rathod Ranjit
Rathod Ranjit
05/07/2023 12:36 pm

Al nino na nam thi duskal padvano hoy evo bhay ubho thay che je tame chokhvat kari didhi ke eto ek paribal che

Place/ગામ
Gadhada swamina
Aswin bhalodiya
Aswin bhalodiya
05/07/2023 12:36 pm

Jsk sir apdet aavpa badal aabhar

Place/ગામ
Khodapipar
Raj Dodiya
Raj Dodiya
05/07/2023 12:27 pm

Thank you for good information sir

Place/ગામ
Hadmatiya ta tankara
Dipak patel
Dipak patel
05/07/2023 12:22 pm

Thanks for update

Place/ગામ
Rajkot
Gami praful
Gami praful
05/07/2023 12:17 pm

Thank you sir for new update, new information, El Nino vishe vistar thi mahiti aapva mate aabhar.

Place/ગામ
GINGANI, tal:Jamjodhpur, Dist: Jamnagar
Hitesh Bakori jam jodhpur
Hitesh Bakori jam jodhpur
05/07/2023 12:14 pm

સર જય શ્રીકૃષ્ણ આભાર…

Place/ગામ
જામજોધપુર
Dinesh Patel
Dinesh Patel
05/07/2023 12:13 pm

ખુબ સુંદર અને સરળ વિશ્લેષણ ખુબ ખુબ આભાર સાહેબ

Place/ગામ
Dhrol
Bhavesh Patel
Bhavesh Patel
05/07/2023 11:49 am

Thank you sir…. good information for us….

Place/ગામ
Upleta
Dilip
Dilip
05/07/2023 11:44 am

Sir thank you for real and perfect information…jay shree radhe krishna ji

Place/ગામ
Gam.Movana Tal.Keshod Dist.Junagadh
Gita Ben Jayeshbhai Thummar
Gita Ben Jayeshbhai Thummar
05/07/2023 11:38 am

Aava gambhir visay mate tame jetli mahenat Kari se tetali koy pan no kare bhagavan tamane nirogi rakhe sadane mate avi partha na bhagavan ne

Place/ગામ
Kalavad
Kalpesh V Sojitra
Kalpesh V Sojitra
05/07/2023 11:23 am

Thanks for new information sir .

Place/ગામ
Rajkot
Narendra Sabhaya
Narendra Sabhaya
05/07/2023 10:56 am

GM sir,
Aa Badha News vala Gujrat (6-7) ma bhare varsad ni aagahi kare 6. & tme haju kay update nathi aapi. to munjvan ubhi thay 6. possible hoy to ans aapva Vinanti

Place/ગામ
Rajkot, Gujarat, India
Pravin khimaniya
Pravin khimaniya
05/07/2023 10:23 am

ટૂંક માં ભારતીય ચોમાસા ને અલનીનો અસર નહીં કરે.પણ આ યુટ્યુબ ચેનલ ટીવી માં તો ઉનાળાના અલનીનો અલનીનો કરતા હતા.

Place/ગામ
Beraja falla
Pravin khimaniya
Pravin khimaniya
Reply to  Ashok Patel
05/07/2023 11:10 am

રાઈટ sir એના માટેજ તે લોકો સનસનાટી ફેલાવી રહોયા છે

Place/ગામ
Beraja falla
Kishan
Kishan
Reply to  Ashok Patel
05/07/2023 1:58 pm

Sir tamari aa website thi tamne Kai pan faydo paisano k thay k nai?
Just for curious( kaik shikhva mate) Khali kaik shikhva mate prasn se.

Place/ગામ
Manavadar dist.junagadh
Kishan
Kishan
Reply to  Ashok Patel
05/07/2023 2:05 pm

Matlab k aa website chalavva tame tamara gharna Paisa nakho em k ?

Place/ગામ
માણાવદર
Last edited 1 year ago by Kishan
Kishan
Kishan
Reply to  Ashok Patel
05/07/2023 2:15 pm

Vah Sai vah weather mate tamaru su passion se,su junoon se,vah. Amare yuvano ne tamari pase thi shikhva jevu k je karo e Dil thi karo junoon thi karo.vah

Place/ગામ
માણાવદર
Dilip
Dilip
Reply to  Ashok Patel
05/07/2023 3:54 pm

Sir Pan Amara Shokh to mafat ma pura thay chhe ne

Place/ગામ
Gam.Movana Tal.Keshod Dist.Junagadh
Ponkiya shailesh-Movdi, Rajkot
Ponkiya shailesh-Movdi, Rajkot
05/07/2023 10:18 am

Sir, Thanks for new information

Place/ગામ
Movdi (Rajkot)
Bhagvan Gajera
Bhagvan Gajera
05/07/2023 10:16 am

Good information sir, thanks

Place/ગામ
Keshod
Nilang Upadhyay
Nilang Upadhyay
05/07/2023 10:07 am

Thanks…Good detailed information sir

Place/ગામ
Rajkot West
Dharam patel
Dharam patel
05/07/2023 10:05 am

Thanks for information sir

Place/ગામ
Ghundha ( s ) ta. Morbi / j. Morbi
Jogal Deva
Jogal Deva
05/07/2023 10:04 am

Jsk સર…. ટૂંકું ને ટચ ભારતીય ચોમાસા ને અલનીનો ની કોઈ આડઅસર નય થાય.

Place/ગામ
Jashapar... Lalpur.. Jamnagar
રામજીભાઈ કચ્છી
રામજીભાઈ કચ્છી
Reply to  Jogal Deva
05/07/2023 10:34 am

આડઅસર કરતા ય ભારતીય ચોમાસા ના અમુક પરિબળ peyki એક પરિબળ ગણાય બીજા પરિબળ પોઝિટિવ હોય તો ઓછી અસર કરે.

Place/ગામ
સાણથલી મોટી. તા. જસદણ.