Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “PHAILIN” – Warning No. 7 From JTWC

Tropical Cyclone 02B (Phailin) Warning #07
Issued at 10/1500Z

io0213_101013_7

TC Warning Text:

WTIO31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 90.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 90.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 16.0N 89.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 16.9N 87.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 17.6N 86.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 18.8N 84.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 21.7N 82.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 24.3N 81.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 90.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 02B HAS UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. PGTW DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED FROM 4.0 AT 10/00Z TO 6.0 AT 
10/12Z. THE EIR INDICATES A WARM SYMMETRIC EYE FEATURE WITH 
SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM COLD-MEDIUM-GREY TO 
COLD-DARK-GREY. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS TIGHTENED AS 
EVIDENT IN A 101323Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY 
LOWER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS INCREASED ACCORDINGLY DUE TO THE RI EVENT. 
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER 
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 
02B IS EXPECTED TO STAY ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN AS IT 
DRIFTS ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL AND MAKES LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF 
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO 
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PEAKING AT 135 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 
PHAILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE RUGGED INDIAN 
TERRAIN, DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE 
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

As per JTWC the highest forecast winds for this System is 135 knots or 250 Kms./hour based on 1 minute average wind speed basis on 12th October 00 UTC.

NOTE: RSMC/IMD New Delhi is the Official Agency for monitoring North Indian Cyclones. Refer Rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories.

CAUTION: Take precautions and be vigil due to high winds, rain and waves in the vicinity of the above System and at other places due to the above System. Refer Rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories.

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Rajendra arora
Rajendra arora
11/10/2013 10:07 am

Is there any possibility that this coming storm turned to LOW PRESSURE??? and effect GUJARAT?

pravin sanjva
pravin sanjva
11/10/2013 9:06 am

Sir ! Aaje barda vistarma south-east na pavano thay gaya chhe to tenathi varsadni matrama kai fer padse?