Posted on 11th October 2013 @ 1.00 pm.

Details from various sources about Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “PHAILIN” over East Central Bay Of Bengal has been given below. The Cyclone is expected to track towards the North Andhra Pradesh- Odisha Coast by tomorrow the 12th October 2013.

Wunderground Map Showing Clouding Over The Bay Of Bengal Associated With Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ” PHAILIN” on 11th October 2013 @ 11.30 am. IST

From IMD: Bulletin No. BOB 04/2013/22 Dated 11-10-2013 @ 10.30 am.

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, PHAILIN over East central Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.

The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over east central Bay of Bengal remained stationery and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 11thth October 2013 near latitude 16.00N and longitude 88.50E, about 520 km south-southeast of Paradip, 530km southeast of Gopalpur, and 530km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam. It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of 12thth October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph.

(A)Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal

(i)Heavy Rainfall: Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over coastal Odisha commencing from 11thth October 2013 night. It would continue and extend to interior Odisha from 12thth night. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh commencing from 11thth Oct. night. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from 12thth Oct. night.

(ii)Gale wind: Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hrs. It would increase in intensity thereafter with gale wind speed reaching 210-220 kmph along and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be rough to very rough and will become gradually phenomenal on 12thth October 2013. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above period.

(iii)Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of around 2.5-3.0 m above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

(iv)Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh: Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops

(v)Action suggested: Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea. Total suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic. People in affected areas to remain indoors during cyclone landfall.

(B)For Andaman and Nicobar Islands
No adverse weather would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands in association with this system.

The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 11thth October, 2013.

The above is from IMD Bulletin No. BOB 04/2013/22

From UW-CIMSS:

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.5                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  11 OCT 2013    Time :   070000 UTC
      Lat :   16:12:22 N     Lon :   88:11:49 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.7 / 930.1mb/132.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.8     5.8     5.8

JTWC Tropical Cyclone 02B (Phailin) Warning #09
Issued on 11th October 2013 /0300Z

JTWC TC Warning No. 9 Text:

WTIO31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 009    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 88.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 88.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 16.6N 87.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 17.7N 86.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 19.1N 84.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 20.3N 83.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 22.9N 82.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 88.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE INTENSE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC EYE AS
IT CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 102343Z SSMI/S PASS, SHOWS THE SYSTEM
IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COMMONLY OBSERVED IN
TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH MINIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KNOTS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC
02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
MAKE LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, BEFORE TAU 36. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER LANDFALL, TC
PHAILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN INDIA, DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.   //
NNNN

From JTWC:

The location is 15.8N 88.8E on 11th October 00 UTC with winds speeds of 135 knots or 250 Kms./hour based on 1 minute average speed. Wave height of 52 feet or 16 meters near the System.

 As per JTWC the highest forecast winds for this System is 145 knots or 270 Kms./hour based on 1 minute average wind speed basis on 12th October 00 UTC.

NOTE: RSMC/IMD New Delhi is the Official Agency for monitoring North Indian Cyclones. Refer Rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories.

CAUTION: Take precautions and be vigil due to high winds, rain and waves in the vicinity of the above System and at other places due to the above System. Refer Rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories.