JTWC Issues Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Over The Arabian Sea

Current Weather Conditions on 9th June 2014 @ 8.00 pm.

JTWC has given a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert as per this Message:
(As is )

WTIO21 PGTW 091330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 69.0E TO 17.2N 66.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 68.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
   THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 67.8E, IS 
NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 68.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, ALBEIT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE 
IS APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW 
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS 
PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, 
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ARABIAN SEA, AT 31 
DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, BASED ON 
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
101330Z.//
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