Rainfall Expected Over South Gujarat & Possibilty Over Limited Parts Of Saurashtra

Current Weather Conditions on 8th July 5.00 pm.

In the last forecast dated 3rd July about 10 mm. to 40 mm. rainfall was Forecast for Saurashtra but did not materialize.  Some places of South Gujarat received 20 mm. to 50 mm. rainfall on 3rd July being the first day of forecast period. Subsequently no meaningful rainfall has been reported.

IMD Map showing the Progress of Southwest Monsoon Till 7th July 2014

mon-prog_070714
The Arabian branch of Southwest Monsoon has not moved ahead since 15th June.

The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Lat. 21°N / Long. 60°E, Lat.21°N / Long. 65°E, Veraval, Surat, Nashik, Aurangabad, Bhopal, Shivpuri, Alwar, Bikaner and Lat.28°N / Long. 72°E.

The low pressure area over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood has become less marked, yesterday evening. However, associated cyclonic circulation lies over northeastern parts of Uttar Pradesh and neighborhood and extends upto 1.5 kms above sea level.

The trough at mean sea level now runs along the foot hills of Himalayas.

The above clearly suggests that the Southwest Monsoon is yet active along the Foothills of the Himalayas. The 925 Mb. charts also suggests that the Easterly winds are restricted to the Himalayas only.

The offshore trough at mean sea level extends from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast.

The east-west shear zone runs roughly along Lat. 14°N and extends between 3.1 & 7.6 kms above sea level tilting southwards with height.

The above two parameters would give rainfall for Western Coast and Peninsular India.

A Low pressure area is expected to form along Odisha Coast around 11th to 13th July. Hopefully if the trough along the foothills aligns in the normal position from Northwest Rajasthan, M.P. Chhatishgarh, Odisha and BOB, Central India could get some meaningful rainfall.

Forecast: 9th July to 12th July 2014

Saurashtra: 9th July to 12th July 2014

20 % of Saurashtra area expected to receive light/medium rainfall during the forecast period and rest of Saurashtra could get scattered showers.

Kutch & North Gujarat: 9th July to 12th July 2014

Kutch & North Gujarat expected to get scattered showers during the forecast period.

South Gujarat: 9th July to 12th July 2014

South Gujarat expected to get meaningful rainfall during the forecast period.

Central Gujarat: 9th July to 12th July 2014

Scattered showers or light rainfall expected during the forecast period.

IMD GFS Rainfall Forecast Valid for oo UTC 11thJuly 2014 ( mainly 10th July)

72hGFS574rain_080714

 

IMD GFS Rainfall Forecast Valid for oo UTC 12th July 2014 ( mainly 11th July)

96hGFS574rain_080714

COLA/IGES Precipitation Forecast Map valid 00 UTC 11th July 2014
(mainly 10th July)

india3.72hr_080714

COLA/IGES Precipitation Forecast Map valid 00 UTC 12th July 2014
(mainly 11th July)

india3.96hr_080714

 Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 8th July 2014

 

akila_080714

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Rajan Mehta
Rajan Mehta
12/07/2014 5:58 pm

sir, yesterday it was good rain in porbandar, mangrol, bhanvad etc. But there is no any rain in jamnagar so far? Today the climate become even more dry and hot. There are no any clouds in the sky. Sir each day passes without rain and we are losing our hope more and more. Sir will jamnagar become most unfortunate city this year? Sir do u really see any hope or not? Bcos this question touches all the living things.

ashok
ashok
12/07/2014 4:22 pm

navi agahi kyard apso?

jigar
jigar
12/07/2014 1:37 pm

Hello sir,
is their instability in atmosphere as u explained me once few days back..chances of havoic lightning again? this year also? from past 4’to5 years we are loosing to many lifes in gujarat coz of lightning.. what is current situation… and my request to u.. as i can see many ppl now follow ur forecast…pls forecast for instability (lightning) which will help ppl and also we will not loose to many lifed specially farmers. so tht thy can b alert…and wht are the chances for surendranagar for rain…. thank you….

Niraj Patel
Niraj Patel
12/07/2014 10:38 am

Sir. Have central gujarat ma varsad kyare???….

Rajendra Arora
Rajendra Arora
12/07/2014 10:17 am

Sir our Ahmedabad city is still waiting for rain…clouds formed here and all in vain due to wind blow…why its unfortunate for this city this year?? WILL AHMEDABAD RECEIVE “ANY” TIPS OF RAIN OR NOT THIS YEAR?!!! VERY TRAGIC YEAR THIS TIME

sanjay marsonia
sanjay marsonia
12/07/2014 7:08 am

Good mornig sir
bob ma uac che
rajsthan ma uac che
gujarat na kinara ma aek date 13 roj uac jevu dekhay che aevu anuman che maru anuman sache? 700hpa
to sistam varsad apse?

Yahya shaikh
Yahya shaikh
12/07/2014 5:09 am

How it will affect central gujarat?

Yahya shaikh
Yahya shaikh
12/07/2014 5:06 am

What is current status of bay of bengal low pressure, is it weak?

ashok
ashok
12/07/2014 12:15 am

sir. mp. ma je sistam chhe te guj. taraf ave chhe?

zala ramsih
zala ramsih
12/07/2014 12:00 am

sir gujrat ke ashe din Aa gaye m.p. me jo lo preshar pahusha thanks good……

Nirmal bhojani
Nirmal bhojani
11/07/2014 11:02 pm

sir sabarkantha (Himatnagar) area mate varsad mateni agahi? Kyare avse varsad ans plz.

piyushkumar
piyushkumar
11/07/2014 10:57 pm

sir sabarkhantha mo kyre varsad thase?