Southwest Monsoon Has Withdrawn From Western Parts Of Rajasthan – Scattered Showers On Some Days For Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch – 4th to 9th September 2015
Current Weather Conditions on 4th September 2015 @ 8.00 pm. IST
Weather Conditions:
As per IMD the Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from Western parts of Rajasthan. The withdrawal line passes through Anupgarh, Nagaur, Jodhpur and Barmer. Conditions are conducive for further withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some more parts of Northwest India during next 3-4 days.
IMD Map of Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon
IMD Criteria for Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon:
a) Withdrawal from extreme north-western parts of the country is not attempted before 1st September.
b) After 1st September:
The following major synoptic features are considered for the first withdrawal from the Western parts of NW India.
i) Cessation of rainfall activity over the area for continuous 5 days.
ii) Establishment of Anticyclone in the Lower Troposphere (850 hPa and below)
iii) Considerable reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapor imageries and tephigrams.
Further Withdrawal from the Country:
i) Further withdrawal from the country is declared, keeping the spatial continuity, reduction in moisture as seen in the water vapor imageries and prevalence of dry weather for 5 days.
ii) SW monsoon is from the southern peninsula and hence from the entire country only after 1st October, when the circulation pattern indicates a change over from the Southwesterly wind regime.
There is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Comorin area & neighbourhood between 1.5 & 3.1 km above mean sea level.
There is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Saurashtra & Kutch and neighbourhood between 3.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level.
The feeble Western Disturbance as an upper air trough in the Mid Tropospheric Westerlies roughly along Longitude 60.0°E and North of Latitude 30.0°N persists.
Forecast: 4th to 9th September 2015
Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat
Few places got some light rain on one or two days and scattered showers over some more places of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch. Scattered showers or light rain over parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat on few days of forecast period. IMD as well as COLA/IGES maps are given for 7th to 9th September showing possible areas of scattered showers/light rain.
Monsoon is not yet over for Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch.
IMD GFS (T574) 850 hPa Winds (kt) & Rainfall (mm)
valid 00 UTC 8th September 2015 (for 7th September)
IMD GFS (T574) 850 hPa Winds (kt) & Rainfall (mm)
valid 00 UTC 9th September 2015 (for 8th September)
IMD GFS (T574) 850 hPa Winds (kt) & Rainfall (mm)
valid 00 UTC 10th September 2015 (for 9th September)
COLA/IGES Forecast Precipitation Valid 00 UTC 08-09-2015 ( for 7th September)
COLA/IGES Forecast Precipitation Valid 00 UTC 09-09-2015 ( for 8th September )
COLA/IGES Forecast Precipitation Valid 00 UTC 10-09-2015 ( for 9th September)
તારીખ 4 સપ્ટેમ્બર 2015 રાત્રે 8.00 વાગ્યે
હવામાન ખાતા મૂજબ દક્ષીણ પશ્ચિમ ચોમાસું પશ્ચિમ રાજસ્થાન ના અમૂક ભાગ માંથી આજે વિદાય લીધી. હાલ ચોમાસું વિદાય રેખા અનૂપગઢ નાગોર જોધપુર અને બારમેર માંથી પાસ થાય છે.
કન્યાકુમારી થી દક્ષીણે એક UAC છે જે 1.5 કિમી થી 3.1 કિમી ના લેવલે છે.
સૌરાષ્ટ્ર અને કચ્છ અને લાગુ અરબી સમુદ્ર ઉપર એક UAC છે 3.1 કિમી ના લેવલે.
વેસ્ટર્ન ડીસ્ટર્બન્સ હાલ પશ્ચિમી પવન ના અપર એર ટ્રફ તરીખે 60 ડિગ્રી E. અને 30 ડીગ્રી N. ઉપર છે.
સૌરાષ્ટ્ર કચ્છ ગુજરાત:
તારીખ 4 સપટેમ્બર થી 9 સપટેમ્બર 2015
અમૂક વિસ્તાર માં હળવો માધ્યમ વરસાદ પડેલ તેમજ અનેક જગ્યાએ ઝાપટા પડેલ છે. તારીખ 4 થી 9 સપટેમ્બર સુધી અંશત વાદળ છાયું વાતાવરણ રહેશે. આગાહી સમય માં અમૂક દિવસે ઝાપટા/હળવો વરસાદ ની શક્યતા છે જેમાં આગાહી સમય ના પાછલા દિવસો માં વધુ શક્યતા. તારીખ 7 થી 9 માટે IMD તેમજ COLA/IGES ના નકશા આપેલ છે.
સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ માટે ચોમાસું હજુ પૂરું નથી થયું.
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tushar shah
08/09/2015 7:24 am
While.v r hopeful for another round.of rainfall …the IMD is now predicting only 82% of avg rainfall …
k k bera
08/09/2015 7:13 am
Sir new update aaje aapso?
Niraj patel
08/09/2015 5:50 am
sir… bob vala UAC nu low k tema thi vadhu majboot thava na ketla chances 6…
Arabian Sea varu UAC pooru thai gayu. BOB ma chhe. Haju temathi Low Thaay ane haal te baju raheshe.
Lalit parecha
07/09/2015 10:58 pm
Sir…mumbai ma 19 septembar na roj bhare varsaad ni aagahi aapel che..to tena anu sandhane aapda gujarat ma varsaad thava ni sakyta rahe k nai…answer me aajawab aapni 9 tarikh pachi aapi sako che..
9 tarikh sudhi nu apel chhe. Navi update ma agadnu avashe.
abizer kachwala
07/09/2015 5:56 pm
ashok sir, xtreme weather forecast for laymen blog indicating formation of cylcone chaupla in bay.is it true?.and secondly they are predicting heavy rains in mumbai adjoining guj.please refer to models and let me know your views as i am the resident of konkan near mumbai.
Normally I don’t predict for more than 5 to 7 days, so cannot help you. You should follow your information source for few more days and see how the forecast changes everyday or every two days.
BATVA NILESH
07/09/2015 5:40 pm
Sar junagadh talukana taliyadhar gam ane aju baju na vistar ma 3.15 pm 55thi60 mm varsad thayo se
paresh chandera
07/09/2015 4:32 pm
sir bob ma low presser thavani sakyata 6(skymet) to aa vkhate saurashtra ne faydo thai tevu 6 chomasu dhari spast thai?
Black line arrow pavan foonkavani disa batave chhe ane te ghadiyaal na kaanta ni viroodh disa ma gol chakkar banave to te UAC.
vijayrajsinh jadeja
07/09/2015 2:39 pm
sir ajna sandesh ma che k 15 September thi gujrat ma chomasu viday lese to e sachu? Jo chomasu viday letu hoy to Tamara mt mujb varsad thavani koy skyara khri ?
East west shear zone 15 Degree oopar chhe ane BOB ma UAC chhe.
Rajan Mehta
07/09/2015 12:29 pm
Sir just read that around 13th step. Low pressure will create in Bob. By the time it reach near andhra cost it will convert into deep depression and reach Mumbai by 18th and give extream heavy rain to Mumbai and konkan. Then it can past the cost of saurashtra and move into the Arabian sea and can intensify into cyclone Chapala. Here no intention to spread panic we just need rain so badly any how whether it should cyclone or any means…
You should monitor that site for next 6 days. See the forecast changes every day or every two days. If it is persistent only then you can confirm the outcome. You have already experienced some news about Cyclone in the beginning of season and how many times the forecast had changed. I also know that this forecast is available and am aware of the same. People get confused as to what the outcome would be if I go on sayiing it will come to Mumbai and next day I say it will come to Saurashtra and then say it will… Read more »
Rahevado sir chomasu gayu have. varsad ni koi sakyata nathi. kemke jhakal bhu pade che khetaro ma ne bhej hava mathi jato rahyo che. have varsad ni koi aasha nathi. thandi jevu vatavaran start thai gau che.
While.v r hopeful for another round.of rainfall …the IMD is now predicting only 82% of avg rainfall …
Sir new update aaje aapso?
sir… bob vala UAC nu low k tema thi vadhu majboot thava na ketla chances 6…
Sir new update kale aapso
Yes.
Sir.je 2 uac Che te Gujarat ne faido Thai k nahi
Arabian Sea varu UAC pooru thai gayu. BOB ma chhe. Haju temathi Low Thaay ane haal te baju raheshe.
Sir…mumbai ma 19 septembar na roj bhare varsaad ni aagahi aapel che..to tena anu sandhane aapda gujarat ma varsaad thava ni sakyta rahe k nai…answer me aajawab aapni 9 tarikh pachi aapi sako che..
Jene aa agahi apel chhe tene khabar hoi. Marey je kahevanu chhe te ahi update ma aapel chhe ane fari navi update ma avashe.
Bija su kahe chhe te tamara maate chhe.
Hu vividhdh forecast model no abhyaas karto hov chhu pan je kahema jevu hoi tetlu kahu jethi ahi avata badha mitro gote na chadey.
Tamoe je English ane Gujarati ni aagahi ahi mookel te prashidhdh nathi karel.
sir
last one month central gujarat ma varsad nathi thiyo , kyare varsad avse .Please answer.
Haju chomasu vidaay nathi lidhu etle varsad ni shakyata chhe.
Mendarda ma aje chhanta hata
Jasdan taluka ma full bafaro che atyare
sir.http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/india.850.html to aa link ma red.yello. green te line su batave
aagala jawab vancho
Bob Uac ch6 avu lageshe?
chhe
Sir jamkandorna na rampar gamma 6p.m. thi varsad chalu 7p.m.1 thi 1.5inch haju chalu 6e
keral pase ek uac & Bob ma ek uac bane evu lage chhe ?
Banne baju UAC chhe.
Sir vanthali junagadh baju na gamdama 1.5 thi 2 inch jetlo varsad che
સર12કે13તારિખ વરસાદ સૌરાષ્ઠ મા આવિશકે
9 tarikh sudhi nu apel chhe. Navi update ma agadnu avashe.
ashok sir, xtreme weather forecast for laymen blog indicating formation of cylcone chaupla in bay.is it true?.and secondly they are predicting heavy rains in mumbai adjoining guj.please refer to models and let me know your views as i am the resident of konkan near mumbai.
Normally I don’t predict for more than 5 to 7 days, so cannot help you. You should follow your information source for few more days and see how the forecast changes everyday or every two days.
Sar junagadh talukana taliyadhar gam ane aju baju na vistar ma 3.15 pm 55thi60 mm varsad thayo se
sir bob ma low presser thavani sakyata 6(skymet) to aa vkhate saurashtra ne faydo thai tevu 6 chomasu dhari spast thai?
Update ma avashe kai hashe toe.
Sir. http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/india.850.html aa link ma uac kevi rite jovay
Black line arrow pavan foonkavani disa batave chhe ane te ghadiyaal na kaanta ni viroodh disa ma gol chakkar banave to te UAC.
sir ajna sandesh ma che k 15 September thi gujrat ma chomasu viday lese to e sachu? Jo chomasu viday letu hoy to Tamara mt mujb varsad thavani koy skyara khri ?
Haal chomasu pooru nathi thayu. Update ma lakhel hoi tem ganvu. Navi update ave tema je hoi te mara mujab hoi.
Sir andhra Pradesh ma je bhare varasad pade 6 the kai sistem no chhe
East west shear zone 15 Degree oopar chhe ane BOB ma UAC chhe.
Sir just read that around 13th step. Low pressure will create in Bob. By the time it reach near andhra cost it will convert into deep depression and reach Mumbai by 18th and give extream heavy rain to Mumbai and konkan. Then it can past the cost of saurashtra and move into the Arabian sea and can intensify into cyclone Chapala. Here no intention to spread panic we just need rain so badly any how whether it should cyclone or any means…
You should monitor that site for next 6 days. See the forecast changes every day or every two days. If it is persistent only then you can confirm the outcome. You have already experienced some news about Cyclone in the beginning of season and how many times the forecast had changed. I also know that this forecast is available and am aware of the same. People get confused as to what the outcome would be if I go on sayiing it will come to Mumbai and next day I say it will come to Saurashtra and then say it will… Read more »
Sri have upleta ma varshad that aevi sakytase
Aagahi 9 tarikh sudhi ni chhe and chomasu haju pooru nathi thayu etle varsad ni shakyata maandi na varay.
sir..will cyclone hit gujarat on 20 sept as per europian forcast model????
You may follow that forecast model and learn. I give my indications in updates only.
Sir aasam ne aandhra valu aaya aavse?
Tya vadhare varsad padyo tenu karan su
Assam thi ahi na avi shake.
Dear sir,
Rahevado sir chomasu gayu have. varsad ni koi sakyata nathi. kemke jhakal bhu pade che khetaro ma ne bhej hava mathi jato rahyo che. have varsad ni koi aasha nathi. thandi jevu vatavaran start thai gau che.
Ahi lakhel aaghi vanchvanu farajiyat nathi. Badhani manyata alag hoi.
Sir. 700 mha ma tarikh 12.13.14 ma gujarat ajubaju je gatividhi chhe. Te su chhe ?
SU chhe Te tamare abhyas karvano chhe. Update tarikh thi aganu tamare jaate shikhvanu. UAC kone kahevaay te khyaal chhe ke nahi ?
Gati vidhi chhe tevu tamo kaho chho pan su chhe te na khabar hoi toe taiyar bhajiya khavana… (ghanvo ootare tyare… ka bhajiya paadta shikhi lio !)
Sir amirgadh ma aaje savare saro varsad che
Sir aje sandes samachar ma pn avyu ke chomasu 15 tarik na puru Thai che
Sir chomasu kiyare ne kay tarik na puru thase
Kyare poru thaay chhe te haju ahithi kahel nathi. Bdhani alag manyata hoi. Haju chomasu pooru nathi thayu. Update ma avashe kai fer far hashe toe.
Sir khambhalia ma varsad ni su agad pogisan che thase ke su
Update ma vachye rakho.