Current Weather Conditions on 19th July 2013 @ 2.00 pm.

A fresh Low Pressure area has formed over Northwest Bay of Bengal and neighboring  West Bengal & Odisha Coast. Associated Cyclonic Circulation extends upto 7.6 kms above Sea Level, tilting Southwestwards with height.

The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ferozepur,
Muzaffarnagar, Kanpur, Ambikapur, Paradip, Center of Low Pressure area and
thence Southeastwards to East Central Bay of Bengal.

There is a weak off shore trough at mean sea level along South Gujarat coast to Kerala coast.

The UAC from the earlier Low Pressure is over Northeast Madhya Pradesh and adjoining South Uttar Pradesh.

The Bay of Bengal Low Pressure would remain over Northwest Bay of Bengal and vicinity for the next three days.

Monsoon winds have picked up speed over Arabian Sea and hence there is good moisture incursion over Saurashtra & Gujarat. Overall weather is gradually improving for Saurashtra & Gujarat.

IMD Map showing Rainfall over India for the Week ending 17th July 2013

 

 

  IMD Map showing Yearly Rainfall over India from 1st June to 17th July 2013

The above two maps show that Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat have received above normal rainfall both on yearly basis as well as for last week.

Indian Monsoon Circulation Index shows that the Monsoon will be active for next 10 days over India since the Index is above 10 for the next 10 days.

Global Tropical Hazards & Benefits Outlook from CPC for week 1 valid 17th July to 23rd july shows above normal rainfall for Southern Peninsula, Gujarat, Maharashtra, M.P., Chhatishgarh, Odisha, W.B.

NCEP/GFS Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts

The above map shows that Saurashtra will receive 35 to 75 mm. of rainfall during the forecast period, while South Gujarat could receive 100 to 135 mm. and North Gujarat and Central Gujarat could get 50 to 100 mm. during the forecast period. Kutch could get 25 to 50 mm.

Forecast: 19th to 24th July 2013

There will be scattered rain on most days of the forecast period though over different areas of the regions on different days with more quantum on 21st to 23rd July.

60% of Saurashtra will receive light to medium rainfall on various days totaling up to 35 mm. to 50 mm. while rest Saurashtra expected to get rain showers and light rain on multiple days with more quantum on 21st to 23rd July total up to 25 mm. to 35 mm. Some isolated places could receive cumulative above 100 mm. of rainfall.

North Gujarat & Central Gujarat is expected to receive light to medium rainfall on various days with more quantum on 21st to 23rd July cumulative total rainfall 50 mm. to 100 mm. during the forecast period with isolated places getting above 100 mm.

South Gujarat is expected to receive 100 mm. to 135 mm. rainfall during the forecast period.

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 19th July 2013