Current Weather Conditions on 25th September 2012 @ 9.00 am.
As had been indicated earlier in my post dated 19th September that as per IMD the Southwest Monsoon will start withdrawing from Rajasthan by 24th September, IMD has annouced that the southwest monsoon has withdrawn from some parts of Jammu division of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat state and north Arabian Sea. The withdrawal line passes through Jammu, Ludhiana, Hissar, Churu, Jodhpur, Naliya and Lat. 23.0° N / Long. 65.0° E and Lat . 23.0°N / Long. 60.0° E.
IMD further states that the conditions are favorable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from remaining parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, entire Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and west Uttar Pradesh, some parts of west Madhya Pradesh and some more parts of Gujarat during next 2 to 3 day.
IMD Map showing the Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon till 24th September 2012
There has been scattered showers light rain in few places of Saurashtra from 20th to 24th September. The Rain quantity and area of coverage was limited in Saurashtra. Rajkot received scattered rain in different parts of the City on three of the five days between 20th to 24th. East Central Gujarat received showers and or medium rainfall over few places during 20th to 24th September.
CPC The Indian Monson Index for 23rd September shows that the Monsoon Index is expected to rise through week two between October 1st to 7th.
Lower Monsoon Index for week one could be attributed to a Category 5 Super Typhoon JELAWAT in the South China Sea currently located at 16N 128E with 140 knots wind speed and 918 Mb. pressure. JELAWAT is drawing the Monsoon flows from the Bay of Bengal. This system is expected to weaken considerably around 28/29th September.
NRL Map showing Super Typhoon JELAWAT on 25th September 2012 @ 0200z
The week two starting 1st October seems to be more active as can be seen from the two Rainfall forecast map from NCEP GSF.
Forecast: 25th September to 30th September
Saurashtra: Southwest Monsoon expected to withdraw from Saurashtra, initially from Northern Saurashtra and subsequently from whole Saurashtra during the forecast period. Scattered showers possible on one or two days over Coastal Saurashtra during the forecast period, however, area and quantum will be less. The winds will be from West Northwestwards and subsequently from the Northwest. The Maximum Temperatures are expected to rise during the forecast period.