Current Weather Conditions on 19th September 2012 @ 10.30 pm.
There has been 7 mm. of average rainfall on 14th September over Saurashtra Region when Rajkot received 44 mm. with highest being in Chotila with 63 mm. Other places that received significant rainfall were Upleta 42 mm. and Padadhari 41 mm. Subsequently after 14th September there has not been any significant rainfall over Saurashtra till 18th morning.
IMD Map showing Normal Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from the Country
Normal withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon starts from 1st September. However, last few years the Monsoon has withdrawn much later. This year too the Southwest Monsoon withdrawal has not yet started. Various conditions required for declaration of initial withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon over West Rajasthan are as under:
i) Cessation of rainfall activity over the area for continuous 5 days.
ii) Establishment of anticyclone in the lower troposphere (850 hPa and below)
iii) Considerable reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapor images.
IMD Water Vapor Satellite Image showing low Humidity over West Rajasthan
IMD Upper Tropospheric Humidity Chart shows reduction in humidity over
West Rajasthan.
The anticyclone at 850 Mb. and lower level has not yet formed over West Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan. The first and third factors for withdrawal are confirmed however, formation of anticyclone should be monitored.
However, as per IMD: Meteorological analysis indicates development of an upper air anticyclonic circulation in lower tropospheric levels and decrease in humidity over northwest India, making conditions conducive for commencement of withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from west Rajasthan and adjoining areas from around 24th onwards.
Forecast: 19th September to 25th September Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat
Only scattered showers possible over small pockets of Saurashtra & Kutch during 20th to 22nd September.
Areas of North Gujarat and East Gujarat adjacent to M.P. and South Rajasthan border can get light rain and showers between 20th to 23rd. September.
South Gujarat can get showers on 20th and one more day during the forecast period.