Current Weather Conditions on 3rd September 2012 @ 6.00 am.
Various parts of Saurashtra has started receiving some meaningful rainfall during the last three four days. Scattered rain has occurred over Kutch.
There is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over northeast Arabian sea and adjoining areas of Saurashtra and Gujarat.
There is also a fresh Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Bay of Bengal
and adjoining Orissa Coast.
The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Jaisalmer, Ajmer, Guna, Sagar, Pendra, Bhubaneswar and thence Southeastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal.
The monsoon offshore trough runs from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast.
NCEP The Indian Monsoon Index normally reaches the peak of 10 around 15th July. However, currently the Monsoon Index is around 12 and is expected to remain high for the next 8 to 9 days as can be seen from the graph below.
GFS MJO Forecast also favorable for Monsoon till 12th September.
Forecast: 3rd September to 8th September 2012
The Mid Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation is expected to remain over Saurashtra, Gujarat, Kutch and nearby areas of Northeast Arabian Sea on many days of the forecast period.
Under the influence of Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Bay of Bengal
and adjoining Orissa Coast, a Low Pressure area may develop over the same area within a day or two. UAC/Low Pressure is expected to travel mainly Westwards towards Madhya Pradesh/Gujarat.
Saurashtra: Conditions are favorable for rain over Saurashtra during the forecast period due to the cumulative benefit from the Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation and subsequently the Bay of Bengal System that will interact with the UAC when it tracks Westwards.
There will be scattered light/medium rain daily over different parts of Saurashtra with isolated places getting heavy rainfall. Quantum of rain will be dependent on the actual track of the Bay of Bengal System. There is a possibility of high winds around 5th to 7th due when the Bay System comes Westwards. As per current estimates Quantum of rain is expected to increase around 5th/7th September.
Update will be given on 5th September.
Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 3rd September 2012 @ 9.30 am.
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