Current Weather Conditions on 29th May 2010 @ 8.00 am

The Maximum Temperatures have come down by 2 to 3 Degrees C over last four days over Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch. Maximmum Temperature for Rajkot for this time of the year is 40 Degrees C. Currently the Maximum temperatures at Rajkot is between 40 to 42 Degrees C.

Severe heat wave conditions prevailed over North West India, Vidarbha and parts of M.P. & U.P. Maximum temperatures of more than 45° C have been experienced in many parts of these regions. However, there has been partial relief from heat wave in many parts of the affected areas.

Forecast:
The Maximum Temperatures are expected to remain the same range till 2nd June for Saurashtra & Gujarat.

Monsoon 2010 Developments:

The Southwest Monsoon has set in over parts of South Bay of Bengal,
Andaman & Nicobar Islands and most parts of Andaman Sea on 17th May 2010. Monsoon further set in over most parts of South Bay of Bengal apart from some parts of northeast Bay of Bengal by 21st May.

The northern limit of monsoon (NLM) on 21th May as per IMD passes through Lat. 5°N/ Long. 70°E, Lat. 5°N/ Long. 75°E, Lat. 8°N/ Long 80°E, Lat. 12°N/ Long 84°E, Lat. 15°N/ Long 87°E, Lat. 18°N/ Long 90°E and Lat. 21°N/Long 93°E. NLM is the same till 28th May. IMD map showing NLM is shown here:

Monsoon has not progressed for the last one week. This is due to the disturbance of the Monsoon winds by Cyclone Laila. Monsoon winds are re-organizing. The strengthening of lower level westerlies and increased moisture content in the Arabian sea should set favorable conditions for onset of Monsoon over the South Arabian Sea by 30th May.

South Arabian Sea To Host A Low Pressure By 31st May/1st June 2010

Various Forecast Models indicate that a Cyclonic Circulation will form near the Kerala- Karnataka Coast around 30th May which is expected to strengthen further to a Low Pressure by 31st May. This Low is expected to track North North Westwards direction away from the Western Peninsula. Hence, the system is expected to strengthen further in hot Arabian Sea waters to at least a Depression. The winds South of the System will be like westerly. So, Kerala will get Monsoon winds but major chunk of the Moisture will be taken up by the Low pressure (Depression) System along with rest of the moisture restricted to Coastal Western Peninsula. IMD may declare the Onset of Monsoon over Kerala on 31st May.

Forecast track of this system will be given after the System develops.

Forecast in Akila Daily Dated 29th May 2010 @ 8.30 am.