ENSO Status on 4th April 2018
Full-fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018.
માર્ચ આખરના વિધિવત “લા નીના” પ્રસ્થાપિત થયું.
The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures were based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v4) and have now been updated to further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given here.
The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
CPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given here.
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.
Last five ONI Index are SON 2017 -0.7ºC, OND 2017 -0.9ºC, NDJ 2018 -1.0ºC, DJF 2018 -0.9ºC and JFM 2018 -0.8ºC. Since, five consecutive 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index are less than or equal to -0.5ºC it fulfills the NOAA Operational definition of a La Nina at the end of March 2018.
La Nina event 2017-18 has officially evolved at the end of March 2018 (JFM 2018). This La Nina event is the second consecutive La Nina event, the other being 2016-17 La Nina event that ended at the end of January 2017 (NDJ 2017).
Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Official La Nina Event Has Evolved JFM 2018
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust YR MON Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC 2016 2 29.00 26.66 2.34 2016 3 28.90 27.21 1.70 2016 4 28.73 27.73 0.99 2016 5 28.24 27.85 0.39 2016 6 27.70 27.65 0.05 2016 7 26.82 27.26 -0.44 2016 8 26.28 26.91 -0.63 2016 9 26.15 26.80 -0.65 2016 10 25.98 26.75 -0.78 2016 11 25.95 26.75 -0.80 2016 12 26.10 26.65 -0.55 2017 1 26.12 26.45 -0.33 2017 2 26.68 26.66 0.02 2017 3 27.33 27.21 0.12 2017 4 28.04 27.73 0.30 2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45 2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41 2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28 2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21 2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51 2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60 2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01 2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04 2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88 2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68 2018 3 26.44 27.21 -0.77
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.
Southern Oscillation Index
As per BOM, Australia:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 2nd April 2018 was +10.8, while the 90-day SOI remains within the neutral range.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.
SOI Monthly graph up to March 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.
30 Days average SOI was +8.48 at the end of March 2018 and was +10.47 on 4th April 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was +4.39.
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP Dated 2nd April 2018
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
La Niña conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely (~55% chance) during the March-May season, with neutral conditions likely to continue into the second half of the year.
As per BOM -Australia 27th March 2018
ENSO outlooks
All eight of the surveyed international climate models indicate equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to continue warming over the coming months. While two models suggest NINO3.4 will meet La Niña thresholds in April, a neutral ENSO is the most likely outcome for the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn and winter. The Bureau’s model predicts the equatorial Pacific will continue to warm throughout winter but remain within the neutral range.
Ashok Patel’s Final Note:
Using NOAA Criteria A Full Fledged La Nina has evolved in March 2018 with 3-monthly season JFM 2018 at -0.8ºC
Last five ONI Index are SON 2017 -0.7ºC, OND 2017 -0.9ºC, NDJ 2018 -1.0ºC, DJF 2018 -0.9ºC and JFM 2018 -0.8ºC. Since, five consecutive 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index are less than or equal to -0.5ºC it fulfills the NOAA Operational definition of a La Nina at the end of March 2018.
La Nina event 2017-18 has officially evolved at the end of March 2018 (JFM 2018). This La Nina event is the second consecutive La Nina, the other being 2016-17 La Nina event that ended at the end of January 2017 (NDJ 2017).
It is surprising that BOM Australlia on 27th March 2018 says “El Niño-Southern Oscillation neutral”
અશોક પટેલ ની નોંધ :
NOAA માપદંડ મુજબ વિધિવત La Nina 2018 માર્ચ આખરે પ્રસ્થાપિત થયું.
સળંગ 5 ત્રી-માસિક સીઝન માં ONI ઈન્ડેક્સ -0.5°C અથવા તેનાથી નીચે રહેલ છે, જેમ કે SON 2017 at -0.7°C, OND 2017 at -0.9°C, NDJ 2018 at -1.0°C, DJF 2018 at -0.9°C and JFM 2018 at -0.8°C. એટલે NOAA માપદંડ મુજબ વિધિવત La Nina 2018 માર્ચ આખરે પ્રસ્થાપિત થયું.
ઓસ્ટ્રેલિયા ની BOM સંસ્થા ના 27 માર્ચ 2018ના બુલેટિન મુજબ ENSO ન્યુટ્રલ કન્ડિશન છે. તે તારણ સાથે હું અસહમત છું.
All earlier updates are listed below:
Click here for Update “La Nina Event 2017-18 Expected To Commence At The End Of March”
Click here for Update “Three Consecutive 3-Monthly Seasons Have Oni -0.5ºC Or Below”
Click here for Update “ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails”
Click here for Update “ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails With JAS 2017 ONI Index At -0.2ºC”
Click here for Update “Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During 2017”
Click here for Update “Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”
Kutch Rapar taluka ma 15 min no zapato padya na samavhr chhe.
Narmana, samana,bhojabedi ma chanta ane kara padya 20 minute 4.45 pm.
sir, bhayavadar (upleta) ma varsad nu saru zaptu padyu ..
Sir rajkot ma ketlo varsad padyo
Sir jasdan thi 8 kilometres devpara gam ma 5pm jordar japtu padiyu
Sir dip depreciation and wel matk low pressure system ana mate koi nani upade apin thodu samjav so plz
અમરેલી જિલ્લા ના બાબરા માં ભારે પવન અને ગાજવીજ સાથે વર્ષાદ ના વાવડ છે,,,પાણી હાલતું થઈ ગયું સેરિયો માં,,,,
Sir India ma south west monsoon ma first pre monsoon kyathi and kyarthi start thay?
Sir haji ketla divas weather unstable rese?
લાલપુર તાલુકા ના બબરજર ગામે કરા સાથે વરસાદ
Vadodara ni south-west side thunderstorms dekhayi rhu che.
Hello sir as varas nu monsoon kevu Jase?
Sir upaleta baju varasadi vadado se ane gaje se chata pade avu lage se
Saurast ma aaje gajvij ni sambhavna
Sir aje bapar pachi junagadh city ma thunderstorms na chance batave che to tamaru su prediction che?
Mota safed clouds dekhai chhe.
સર આગળ હવામાન નુ અપડેટ ક્યારે આપસો
Jsk Sir la-nino thi saurasthra ne benefit malse
સર આ કરા કેવી રીતે બને આકાશ મા… ઈ ઉપર બરફ જ હોઈ કે પાણી નીચે આવીને બરફ બને…
Plz reply sir
sir amara vistar ma atyare aadar thayo se ane gaj pan se
Sir aje atyre pacha vadada chavai gya che apde rajkot ma ane tadko pn che bhego ane kada vadada pn che thoda ghana eva to sir kai mavtha ni skyata nthi ne apde aiya rajkot ma avta divso ma plz sir jnavjo
Zakad(Megharvo) & chomasu varsad ne koy lamba gaada no sambandh kharo?
Sir night ma bhavngar ma wind speed bov hti aska no pavn hto sir a ketla
dey sudhi rese….
સર તમે બધા જવાબ ગુજરાતી મા આપવા વિનંતી
Ashok bhai sakaymet weather vala a bharat ma sara chomasa nu kahtu chhe.chhe to tamaru sakaymet ni aaghi vishe shu kahevan nu chhe.aapda gujarat ma chomasu kahevu rahe chhe.
Sir atyare savarma je ghar avese e hji Ketala divas avase Junagadh baju
સર,
લોકો કહેતા હોય છે કે ,“દનૈયા માં જો તડકો વધારે પડે તો આવતું ચોમાસું સારું થાય ” .
સર, આ દનૈયા કયારે હોય ?
sir skyment vara nu Aanu man che k Aa varsh gujrat ma samanya karta osho varsad padche
Good morning sir, Surat ma savar thi vadal chayu vatavaran che
Jsk Sir. Good news aapya tamone sir. Bija paribado pan sara rahe aevi prabhu ne prathana .
Sir 14,15 na aapde gujarat ma varsad pdvani skyata che tmara mate aa lamba gada ni agahi hse pn jnava vinanti sir 14,15 na mavthu thai ske k nai e?
Southwest monsoon Andaman-Nikobar ma entry kare ae pahela kya thi prasthan kare chhe?
અઃ વખતે ચૉમાસુ કૅવુ રહૅસૅ
Sir aje apde rajkot ma pn sanj thi sara eva vadado dekhai che
Sir 9,10,11 april daramiyan Junagadh dist ma varsad thavana chance che?
ગુડ આફટરનુન સર. લા નીનો પ્રસ્થાપિત થયુ છે. ખુબ ખુબ સારા સમાચાર છે આપણા ભારત માટે.
Kai kahevat? Bhens ni agad bhagvat vachvi…. Barabar ke?
Sir mari comments kem nai batati aya plz ans…
Good morning sir,
You were gave the article of parameters which impacted on SW monsoon in main land of India last,when i was required.
Sir plz give me agian that link which have a full information about parameters( a part from IOD, El nino, la nino)
Sir aa je tme link aipi vanchva mate evi rite aa year 2018 mate imd kyre press release kri ske means aa month ma j krse press release southwest monsoon 2018 mate k nai???
Sir 8 thi 10 bija kya kya paribad che te janavone pliz sir
Tnq god
Ak to paribal saru se e pakku thu ne sar …
Ashokbhai aa lanina ketlo time take?MATLAB je July August September sudhi taki sake.
Aavta varsh mate saru k kharab a janavo
Good news…
Sir la nina thi gujratna varsadne ketli asar thai
Good news siir
સ્કાયમેટ દ્વારા 100% વરસાદ ની આગાહી
Sir aa vars allnino ni asar rehse gujrat upar
Sir
Next time ma aavi J sthiti rahese??