Enso Status on 11th August 2018
Enso Neutral Conditions Prevails July 2018
How ONI is determined:
The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given here.
The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
CPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given here.
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.
Last five ONI Index are JFM 2018 -0.8ºC, FMA 2018 -0.6ºC, MAM 2018 -0.4ºC, AMJ 2018 -0.1ºC and MJJ 2018 +0.1ºC. Latest Nino 3.4 SST is +0.17ºC and the calculated ONI MJJ 2018 is +0.1ºC, though positive but in neutral zone. Hence ENSO neutral conditions continues to exist.
La Nina event 2017-18 had officially ended at the end of April 2018 (FMA 2018). ENSO neutral conditions exists since then.
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows ENSO Neutral Conditions Continues MJJ 2018 Season
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust YR MON Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC 2016 7 26.82 27.26 -0.44 2016 8 26.28 26.91 -0.63 2016 9 26.15 26.80 -0.65 2016 10 25.98 26.75 -0.78 2016 11 25.95 26.75 -0.80 2016 12 26.10 26.65 -0.55 2017 1 26.12 26.45 -0.33 2017 2 26.68 26.66 0.02 2017 3 27.33 27.21 0.12 2017 4 28.04 27.73 0.30 2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45 2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41 2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28 2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21 2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51 2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60 2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01 2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04 2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88 2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68 2018 3 26.50 27.21 -0.71 2018 4 27.32 27.73 -0.41 2018 5 27.74 27.85 -0.11 2018 6 27.76 27.65 0.13 2018 7 27.43 27.26 0.17
Southern Oscillation Index
As per BOM, Australia:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 29 July was +2.2, and the 90-day SOI was −0.4. The SOI is +1.9 on 2nd August 2018 and has been within the neutral range since late April.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.
30 Days average SOI was +1.79 at the end of July 2018 and was +1.18 on 1st August 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -0.68.
SOI Monthly graph up to July 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP Dated 6th August 2018
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to about 65% during fall, and to about 70% during winter 2018-19.
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
As per BOM – Australia 31st July 2018
ENSO outlooks
Most of the eight surveyed international climate models predict warming of central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is likely to resume over the coming months. Five of the eight models suggest El Niño thresholds are likely to be reached in spring, with six of eight models exceeding the El Niño threshold value during December.
(Note: winter/spring is with reference to Southern Hemisphere)
Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :
Using NOAA Criteria, Enso Neutral conditions continue to prevail from May 2018 (MAM 2018) with the latest 3-monthly season MJJ 2018 at +0.1ºC
La Nina event 2017-18 had officially ended at the end of April 2018 (FMA 2018) as per NOAA criteria.
Last five ONI Index are JFM 2018 -0.8ºC, FMA 2018 -0.6ºC, MAM 2018 -0.4ºC, AMJ 2018 -0.1ºC and MJJ 2018 +0.1ºC. The last three 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index indicates Enso Neutral conditions continue to prevail from May 2018. July 2018 SST anomaly for Nino 3.4 for is +0.17ºC.
Hence, currently neither Nino 3.4 SST anomaly nor the last ONI index has even reached the El Nino thresh hold for single month or a single 3-monthly seasons respectively.
The last two Nino 3.4 SST anomaly are June at +0.13ºC and July at +0.17ºC. Possibility for First 3-monthly season to reach El Nino thresh hold requires the ONI reaches +0.5ºC from the current +0.1ºC level. Possibilty of El Nino thresh hold in August is very low since the chances of August Nino 3.4 SST anomaly crossing +1.0ºC at the end of August is dismally low.
Using NOAA criteria, a full-fledged El Nino event is rules out during the Indian Summer Monsoon, since there are now only two 3-monthly seasons left till end of September 2018, namely JJA 2018 & JAS 2018, and Indian Summer Monsoon normally comes to an end by then (September end). Full fledged El Nino requires El Nino thresh hold to continue for five consecutive 3-monthly seasons.
અશોક પટેલ નું તારણ અને વિશ્લેષણ :
NOAA માપદંડ મુજબ 2018 જુલાઈ આખર ના ENSO ન્યુટ્રલ સ્થિતિ ચાલુ રહી છે.
છેલ્લા પાંચ ત્રી-માસિક સીઝન નું ONI ઈન્ડેક્સ આ પ્રમાણે છે: JFM 2018 -0.8ºC and FMA 2018 -0.6ºC, MAM 2018 -0.4ºC, AMJ 2018 -0.1ºC અને MJJ 2018 +0.1ºC. છેલ્લું ત્રી-માસિક સીઝન MJJ 2018 નું ONI ઈન્ડેક્સ +0.1°C, એટલે NOAA માપદંડ મુજબ મે 2018 તેમજ જૂન 2018 ની જેમ જુલાઈ 2018 નું ONI ઈન્ડેક્સ Enso ન્યુટ્રલ ઝોન માં છે. જુલાઈ 2018 નું નિનો 3.4 નું SST ઍનોમલી 0.17ºC છે. અત્યાર સુધી એક પણ મહિના નું નિનો 3.4 નું SST ઍનોમલી કે છેલ્લું ONI ઈન્ડેક્સ એલ નિનો ના ઉંબરા સુધી પહોંચેલ નથી. છેલ્લા બે મહિના નું SST ઍનોમલી જૂન 2018 +0.13ºC અને જુલાઈ +0.17ºC છે . ઓગસ્ટ માસ ની આખર માં SST ઍનોમલી +1.0ºC થવાની શક્યતા હાલ નથી. માટે ઓગસ્ટ આખર સુધી માં નિનો 3.4 એલ નિનો ના ઉંબરા સુધી પહોંચશે નહિ. તેમજ ભારતીય ચોમાસા દરમિયાન NOAA ના માપદંડ મુજબ વિધિવત ‘એલ નિનો’ થવાની શક્યતા પણ નથી. કારણ એમ છે કે ભારત નું ચોમાસુ સપ્ટેમ્બર આખરે પૂરું થતું હોય છે અને હવે સપ્ટેમ્બર આખર સુધી ફક્ત 2 ત્રી-માસિક સીઝન બાકી છે, જે છે JJA 2018 & JAS 2018 અને એલ નિનો માટે ઓછા માં ઓછી 5 ત્રી-માસિક સીઝન જોઈએ.
All earlier updates are listed below:
Click here for Update “Full-fledged El Nino Ruled Out During Southwest Monsoon 2018”
Click here for Update “Weak La Nina Exists Till The End Of April 2018”
Click here for Update “Full Fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018”
Click here for Update “La Nina Event 2017-18 Expected To Commence At The End Of March”
હૈ ભોલેનાથ વરસાદ આવવા દયો
દયા કરો કરુણાનિધાન
Dhasa Damnagar ma savare halva zapta
અમદાવાદ
12/8/2018 (સવારે 11-30 AM)
પવન સાથે ધોધમાર વરસાદી ઝાપટું.
Sir mendarda ma 4divas thi fuvara layak varsad chhe ane AJ thi sravani saravada chalu thya chhe Krupa Mahadev no joi 17 18 sure thay chhe
સર
(Deleted by Moderator)
બીજું કે આજે
Save my name,email,and website in this briwser for the next time i comment.
એવું આવી ગયુ છે.
Ashokbhai within 10 days is there any possibility of good rain in saurastra region
gam dadvi ta jamkandorn aaje vatavaran ekdam saru 6 halva japta chalu 6 savarna Kay vadhare Mel pade evu 6 bhajiya banta hoy to rah joi
Sir atyare kala dimbag vadalo che, sir to kya paribal varasva mate ghate che
sar je 17.18.19.ma low batave che te 9 tarikh thi batave che to haji ketla divas batave to naki kari sakay varsad nu agman thase
Hal Jamnagar taluka nu dharangda game vadad sayu vatavarn chhe savni jarmarya satachhe
respected dear all.
har har mahadev
sir apne rajkot dis ma have sara varsad na sanjogo khra k pa6i pavdo jinda bad.
pani to kudrate kuvama chlavi didha 6e. pan pay ne jo mathe varsad thay to pak ne nuksani jay.
atle mara gam na kheduto tamari agahi upr j kam kare 6e.
agotaru aendhan kay hoy to janava vinanti sir.
Gaam Lapasri dis rajkot
Good morning sir have mjo phase 7 ma che atyare ee phase 2 and 3 ma ketla divas pacchi Avi sake ? athava aa mjo no round puro Thai tya sudhi j hoy matlab k ek j round aa mjo lagave
dt 12.tuv15 ma varsad aave avu chhe kay morbi tankara ma
khetut puchhe chhe atle lakhu chhu sir
pls rpl
ગૂડ મોર્નિંગ ચર આવતી 18 તારીખે જે અગાસી કરી એમા વરસાદ કેવો છે
અત્યારે આજે સવારથી શ્રાવણિયા ઝરમરીયા છાંટા શરૂ થયા છે….ઈડર….સા.કાં. મા
એકદમ ઝીણા ઝરમર શરૂ છે…
Dt 17 to 21 ECMWF and GFS banne modalma 700hpa and 850Hpa bhejnu nu pramam saru batave chhe,to varsadmate Sara sanketo kahevay.
Sar maharast uper je vadalo dekhay se tenathi suarast ne labh mali sake
Gondal ma 8 AM thi 8.45 Am jarmar ane kyarek Madhyam varsad .Atyare pan chalu chhe.
ગુડ મોર્નિંગ સર. આજે સવારે રાજકોટ મા આઠ વાગ્યે જે વાદળો હતા તે 700 hpa ના હતા??
Sir amuk update ma English shabdo AVE tenu side ma Gujarati hoy to smajvu sahelu pade
Windy
Uac
Cola
Al nino
la nino
Dipreson
vagere vagere
OK sir
અશોક ભાઈ અપડેટ એક દિવસ વેલા મોડી આપશો હાલસે છે હવે ખેડૂતો ને આનંદો શબ્દ સાંભળવો છે
Have pachhi na samay ma Bhari varsad thavo Ae Aksmit sanjog samajvo…?
Khedut ne je piyat ni sagvad hoy te chalu rakhvi..hitavah ganai….. Pachhi bhale varsad aavi jay to aapna bhagya samajva… Kharu ne.. Ashokbhai sir??
Sir. A Western Disturbance a vakhte nathi thatu ke thay se pan small thay se?
Good morning and thanks.
Sir have to kudarat upar che badhu
Sir 16 date thi north ane maddhy Gujarat ma saro varsad Thai shke?
sir Aaje GFS ma ghano fer padigyo
pela Karta saru che bhale gujrat mate kay khas nathi nathi batavtu pan have evu lage che k jem jem samay dhukdo Aavche tem tem paye Aavtu jashe..!
Sir amare tya atyare pavan ni gati vadhare c to su samajvu veraval taluka ma
Sar. Abhar ani uparthi evu lage6e k nuksani to nayj jay
સર! હાલ વિન્ડીમા તો 17 /18 એ મધ્ય અને દક્ષિણ તથા સૌરાષ્ટ્ર મા વરસાદ બતાવે છે અને ઉત્તર ગુજરાત ને ખાસ કરી અમારા ઈડર મા તો જરાય વરસાદ નથી બતાવતો ,તો શુ ફરી અમને હાથતાળી આપી જતો રહેશે ? વરસાદ ,સતત બે થી ત્રણ દી જોયુ તો એ જ પોઝીશન બતાવે છે ,તો શુ વખતે પણ અમારે સારો વરસાદ નહિ આવે ? Please reply ME !
Amarathi tamne vadhu khyal hoy che jethi javab aapjo
Cola positive thyu 6e thodik asha bandhani
Thanks so much sar
ok thanks sir
sir
આપડે તો તૈયાર ભજીયા વાળા હો જોવાની રોજ કોમેન્ટ પન કાંય જાણવા જેવું હોય તે લેવાનું બાકી જય સીયારામ
બાકી તમારી લોકો ને જવાબ દેવાની કળા ને દાદ દેવી પડે હો નકરી મજ્જા જ મજ્જા
Sir imd image ma chattishgadh ane maharashtra vache je vadado no samuh dekhay che je mp uper avto hoy tevu lage che tenathi saurastra ne faydo thay
Jsk.sir. Thanks for new update. Sir maro aek prashn che ke Windy ma 700 hpa GFS ma Dt.12/8/2018 ma 3 am. thi BoB ma 996 nu Low Pressure batave chhe.
&. Windy ma 700 hpa ECMWF ma Dt.12/8/2018 ma 7 am.thi BoB ma 997 nu Low Pressure batave chhe . To sir aa bane modale to Windy na j chhe to pan samay ma ane Pressure ma ferfar hova nu karn shu hoy shake ???
navi jankari aapva badal aabhar
Sir first week na Cola positive thaya se
નમસ્કાર સર આમા કાઈ ખબર પડતી નથી
આનાથી ગુજરાત સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ને ફાયદો કે નુકસાની
Sir skymet vada am Kate che ke gujarat ma July ane August mahina no saro varsad hoy che to a Barsham 2018 ma teno labh thayo nahi to te khad baki na mahina ma puri thay sake
Chomasa no angreji mahina pramane ketlo samay have baki rahyo ganay
Ratre akash chokhu thay che to te saru ke kem
Enso atale iod
ડાયવર્જંન કંન્વર્જંન તે કઈ સીસ્ટંમ છે સર…?
હંવામાંન વારા તેવી સીસ્ટમ નૂ કાંઈક કહેશે કે એકજ જગ્યા યે ભેજ ભેરો થાય
Helo sir badhu samajya ael nino nadato nathi pan aa varsma ek pan haju sudhi bangal ni sestam ve varsad aapiyo nathi je aaviyo te ahiya banel uac ne den se ane aagame divsoma bannaru banal valu loo nu pan kay naki nthi……
sir aano matlab gujrati ma su thay aaje je aad kariyu
Thanks Sir,
Sachi mahiti apava badal.
Thanks sir atle apanu somasu normal rahese.
Good