Enso Status on 5th May 2019
Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :
Using NOAA Criteria, a full-fledged El Nino event started at the end of March 2019 having fulfilled the five consecutive overlapping 3-monthly seasons with ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. El Nino has continued during April 2019 with the sixth 3-monthly season of FMA 2019 at +0.8ºC. The last two Nino3.4 SST anomaly for March is +0.90ºC and April is +0.72ºC. Even if the Nino3.4 SST anomaly of May is around 0.0ºC, the MAM ONI Index would be greater than or equal to +0.5ºC, and so El Nino is expected to continue during May 2019.
Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India.
અશોક પટેલ નું તારણ અને વિશ્લેષણ :
NOAA માપદંડ મુજબ માર્ચ આખર માં વિધિવત ‘એલ નિનો’ ડિક્લેર થયેલ કારણ કે સળંગ 5 અંશતઃ ઢાંકેલ ત્રી-માસિક સીઝન નું ONI ઈન્ડેક્સ +0.5ºC અથવા વધુ રહેલ છે. એપ્રિલ 2019 માં પણ ‘એલ નિનો’ ચાલુ રહે છે અને મે 2019 માં પણ ચાલુ રહેશે. FMA 2019 નું ONI ઈન્ડેક્સ +0.8°C હતું.છેલ્લા બે મહિના નું Nino3.4 SST ઍનોમલી માર્ચ +0.90ºC અને એપ્રિલ +0.72ºC છે. મે 2019 નું SST +0.0ºC આસ પાસ રહે તો પણ MAM 2019 નું ONI +0.5ºC થી વધુ કે બરોબર રહેશે એટલે ‘એલ નિનો’ મે 2019 માં પણ ચાલુ રહેશે.
આગળ ના 100 વર્ષ થી વધુ ની શરેરાશ પ્રમાણે એલ નિનો વર્ષ માં ભારતીય ચોમાસુ 94% રહેલ છે, જયારે લા નિના વર્ષ માં ચોમાસુ 106% રહેલ છે. ભારતીય ચોમાસા માટે વિવિદ્ધ પરિબળો પૈકી નું એલ નિનો/લા નિના ફક્ત એક પરિબળ છે. ભારત ના અલગ અલગ વિસ્તારો ના ચોમાસા પર એલ નિનો/લા નિના ની અસર એક સરખી નથી થતી.
How ONI is determined:
The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given here.
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA
Current El Nino 2018-19 all ONI Index are SON 2018 +0.7ºC, OND 2018 +0.9ºC, NDJ 2019 +0.8ºC, DJF 2019 +0.8ºC, JFM 2019 +0.8ºC and FMA 2019 +0.8ºC. Last three Nino 3.4 SST anomaly are February +0.83ºC, March +0.90ºC and April is +0.72ºC.
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows El Nino 2018-19 Continues In April 2019
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust YR MON Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC 2017 5 28.30 27.85 0.45 2017 6 28.06 27.65 0.41 2017 7 27.54 27.26 0.28 2017 8 26.70 26.91 -0.21 2017 9 26.29 26.80 -0.51 2017 10 26.15 26.75 -0.60 2017 11 25.74 26.75 -1.01 2017 12 25.62 26.65 -1.04 2018 1 25.58 26.45 -0.88 2018 2 25.98 26.66 -0.68 2018 3 26.50 27.21 -0.71 2018 4 27.32 27.73 -0.41 2018 5 27.74 27.85 -0.11 2018 6 27.76 27.65 0.13 2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16 2018 8 26.94 26.91 0.04 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.90 2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72
Southern Oscillation Index
As per BOM, Australia:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 3rd May 2019 was -2.5 and is considered in the neutral zone.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.
30 Days average SOI was -2.43 at the end of April 2019 and was -2.97 on 5th May 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -7.38
SOI Monthly graph up to April 2019 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP Dated 29th April 2019
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
El Niño is present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are consistent with El Niño. A weak El Niño is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (65% chance) and possibly fall (50-55% chance).
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
As per BOM – Australia 30th April 2019
ENSO outlooks
While most climate models forecast El Niño-like warmth to persist throughout the remainder of the austral autumn and early winter, the ocean is then likely to cool heading into spring. This could indicate that if El Niño does develop, it is likely to be short lived and weak. Despite this cooling, four of the eight surveyed climate models forecast El Niño-like warmth in September.
Note that model accuracy when forecasting through the autumn months is lower than at other times of the year, due to the natural cycle of ENSO. Forecast accuracy improves for outlooks issued in June.
(Note: winter/spring is with reference to Southern Hemisphere)
All earlier updates are listed below:
Click here for Update “El Nino Expected To Be Declared End Of March 2019”
Click here for Update “Much Hyped El Nino Has Not And Will Not Materialize During Indian Summer Monsoon 2018 “
Click here for Update “ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevail July 2018”
Click here for Update “Full-fledged El Nino Ruled Out During Southwest Monsoon 2018”
Click here for Update “Weak La Nina Exists Till The End Of April 2018”
Click here for Update “Full Fledged La Nina Event Has Developed At The End Of March 2018”
Sir tv vala varsad ni agahi krese 10 thi 12 tarikh ma tme chu kaho cho avse varsad
Amdavad ma garmi this rahat malse k nai pre monsoon jevu. Kai aavse
Sir elninona karne sareras karta ochho varasad thay tem unalama elninoni Ni koi asar thay Ane te atyare anubhavay chhe?
Cola mathi colour gayab thai gayo… have chances nathi lagta ke kase pan Gujarat ma unseasonal rain pade avta diwaso ma
પ્રી મોન્સૂન એક્ટિવિટી ક્યાં ચાલુ થૈ?
Ek question haji pan hato k sw monsoon only India ma j hoy chhe ke Asia sivay bija koi country ma pan hoy chhe? And sir cold countries ma varsad kevi rite padto hoy chhe? USA and UK Aapna karta cold country che to pan tya Aapna thi vadhu varsad ne cyclone aavta hoy chhe e Kem?
Sir aaj na Gujarat samasar ma porbadar ma aavta 4/5 divso ma varsad nu ke se to thodi jankari aapva vinti
Iod કેટલું પોટીવય તો સારું નેં કેટલા પોઈન્ટ વયતો નેગેટિવ. ,??? (edited for clarity…Moderator)
Cape index High hoy to evu chokas che ke thunderstorms thai j?? 14 thi 16 high che windy ma and Cape index joti vakhte time su rakhvo (jem ke temperature check Karti vakhte divas ma 3 pm jova na hoi che..)
Sir aa itcz ke tenu forecast Kai rite jovanu?
સર દક્ષીણ પસીમ નું ચોમાસુ સ્ટાર્ટ કઈ જગ્યા થી થાય અને નોર્મલ કઈ તારીખ થી થાય
Thailand pase SW monsoon na symptoms dekhay chhe.
Sir
IOD -0.16, means in neutral condition. Is it?
Sir tame LGAKN nathi karta pan bija koi bhai a aa varsh na agasi aapi hoi to mujko
Sir monsoon tena mukamethi Ravana thyu? normally Ravana kyare thay?
Sir 1 june sourastra ma vavni thai to baraber time kehvay
Dear sir
What is your opinion regarding 8 may- 13 may premonsoon rain and light rain in saurastra region. Local newspaper forecast for light rain
Sir amdavad ma. Pre monsoon. 12 tarikh Ni pachi. Thi Thai sake and vadada pan. Dekhase evu. Lage 6. Barabar ne sir. Pli. Ans aapso
Sir Ek vat puchvi chhe ke. Aapne sau Janie chie aem Suraj ni garmi thi pani nu baspibhavan thay ane varad svrupe upar pochi ne clouds bane. But mare e janvu che k thunderstorms clouds to divse j bane and e pan depends on garmi, local paribado, lift index , cape index upar depends but su sir monsoon ma pan aa jaruri chhe and Biju e k monsoon ma rate pan clouds banta hoy ke only divse?
Sir alnino jun masma pan chalu rahi sake
14/15/16 ma aek majbut wd rajesthan pakistan upar chhe aeni asar thi thunder aectivity thai sake chhe gujarat ma !! Sachu sir??
sir vavni k thay evu hoy to Kijo 10 divash pela Hajito magfali folavi pan nathi.!
Sir generally kya samay pramane akhatrij na pavno athva ketla samay thi ketla samay sudhi nirixan karvanu hoy se
9 tarikh na kuch ma varsad ni aagahi
Sir Andaman and Nicobar ma premonsoon rain purjosh ma che aevu lage che kem k last 3 days thi varsad pade che
Cola image ma 2nd week na colour purano!
Avu ne avu ray jay to akha gujrat na veli vavani thay jay ho
Date 6 to 10 may ma Gujrat ma chata chuti ni shakyta che ke bhare varsad ni
Cola 2nd week ma Gujarat ma asthirta batave Che e ketlu sachu samajvu
Sir tame LGAKN
pan tamne atla varso no bahlo anubhav che to khyal to avi jato hase ke chomasu kevu rehse
and
apne sir saurashtra ma to system upar j vadhu asha rakhva ni ?
Sir,
2009 jevi j situation chhe EL Nino ni ?
સર ગુજરાત ને અલનીનો અસર કર શે કે નઈ
Sir gujrat rajthan ma jevu rahse chomasu?
Sir alnino ma pan sara varasd thyo che past ma Gujrat ma…?